突发性能源短缺的应急体系研究

世界范围内自然灾害等突发事件的增多趋势,使得应急管理成为一个重要而热门的研究领域.但是,关于突发性能源短缺应急体系的研究还很少.利用案例研究、统计分析和比较分析方法,本文研究了中国应对突发性能源短缺的应急体系.首先介绍了西方国家应对突发性石油短缺的基本经验,包括完善的应急法规体系、明晰的应急组织体系、有效的协同响应体系、庞大的应急储备体系:然后以中国2009年11月至2010年1月的突发性煤炭短缺为例,分析了其起因及其应急晌应过程,并通过与西方国家应对突发性石油短缺的对比,指出了中国突发性能源短缺应急体系的不足,包括应急监测预警不力、应急响应的组织化、协同化、信息化程度不高、应急储备体系尚未建立、应急响应缺乏制度保障和政策依据等;最后从应急法规体系、应急预案体系、应急组织体系、监测预警体系、应急储备体系五个方面,提出了中国构建突发性能源短缺应急体系的基本构想.     

中国碳排放强度与煤炭消耗的冲击效应分析

受能源消费结构的影响,煤炭作为我国经济发展的资源支柱,一方面推动着经济快速增长,另一方面也对中国节能减排、降低碳排放强度提出了挑战,因而准确认识碳排放强度与煤炭消耗之间的交互冲击作用机理,为挖掘碳减排路径提供了科学依据.本文选取1990 - 2008年间中国碳排放强度与煤炭消耗指标,采用EG协整检验证明碳排放强度与煤炭消耗之间存在长期稳定关系,并以此建立VAR模型和脉冲响应函数,考察碳排放强度与煤炭消耗之间的长期动态影响特征.冲击响应分析结果表明:(1)煤炭消耗比重的变化对碳排放强度的冲击影晌具有一定滞后性和波动性,但冲击作用长期持久;(2)碳排放强度对煤炭消耗比重的冲击影响在短期内较剧烈,但长期冲击影响不明显;(3)煤炭消耗比重的降低在长期内会促使碳排放强度的降低,因而可以通过降低煤炭消耗比重来达到降低碳排放强度的目的.最后,从结构性降低、产业传导性降低以及技术性降低等角度,提出减少煤炭消耗、降低碳排放强度的相关对策措施.     

破碎带对地下坑道动力响应影响的数值分析

为了研究破碎带的耗能作用及其对坑道结构动力响应的影响,根据某工程实例,建立了地冲击波作用下类岩体中坑道结构响应的计算模型,利用LS-DYNA3D有限元软件,分别计算了无破碎带和存在破碎带情况下坑道结构的动力响应。计算结果的对比分析表明,顶部破碎带使结构的加速度和位移等运动参数有不同程度的降低,但对结构所受到的应力影响不大;与之相反,侧部破碎带的存在使结构的加速度和位移等运动参数明显地增大。与顶部存在破碎带情况相比,侧部存在破碎带情况下坑道结构运动参数的峰值更大,对坑道结构安全更为不利。     

二维相关地震动作用下结构的随机反应

假定两水平方向的地震动为平稳随机过程,基于地震动主轴模型的假设,讨论了二维地震动分量的空间相关性,在单分量平稳模型的基础上给出了二维水平地震动随机模型的相关函数矩阵。该相关函数模型可以为二维地震下结构随机反应分析提供地震动输入。利用状态空间方法和随机振动理论建立了线性多自由度体系在二维地震激励下的随机反应分析方法,导出了结构的位移反应相关函数和速度反应相关函数,可在时域内直接计算结构的二维随机地震反应的统计特征。最后,通过一个二层框架结构计算实例,说明了这种方法的运用,讨论了地震动强度以及地震动主轴方位角对结构反应的影响。该方法可以为结构抗震可靠性评估提供基础。     

有限空间作业人员生理状态监测设备研制

为监测有限空间作业人员异常生理状况,进而保障有限空间作业安全与作业人员生命健康,在分析手腕处6个测量位置信号质量的基础上,获得最佳信号采集位置,并结合事故成因,从光电容积脉搏波(PPG)信号中提取心率、脉搏周期、振幅等生理参数作为评价指标,研制一款针对有限空间特殊作业人群的手腕处脉动生理信息监测设备;并进行系统稳定性测...     

Chemical fluxes in time through forest ecosystems in the UK - Soil response to pollution recovery

Long term trend analysis of bulk precipitation, throughfall and soil solution elemental fluxes from 12 years monitoring at 10 ICP Level II forest sites in the UK reveal coherent national chemical trends indicating recovery from sulphur deposition and acidification. Soil solution pH increased and sulphate and aluminium decreased at most sites. Trends in nitrogen were variable and dependant on its form. Dissolved organic nitrogen increased in bulk precipitation, throughfall and soil solution at most sites. Nitrate in soil solution declined at sites receiving high nitrogen deposition. Increase in soil dissolved organic carbon was detected - a response to pollution recovery, changes in soil temperature and/or increased microbial activity. An increase of sodium and chloride was evident - a possible result of more frequent storm events at exposed sites. The intensive and integrated nature of monitoring enables the relationships between climate/pollutant exposure and chemical/biological response in forestry to be explored.     

Sublethal impact of paraquat on the life span and parasitic behavior of Diaeretiella rapae M’Intosh

This study focuses on assessing the impact of sublethal doses of paraquat on the survival, the emergence, the life span and the parasitic behavior of Diaeretiella rapae M’Intosh (Hymenoptera: Braconidae). The impact of sublethal doses was measured at room temperature using different densities of the cabbage aphid Brevicoryne brassicae. The results reveal that the field dose of paraquat caused 100% mortality in D. rapae. The percentage emergence of D. rapae decreased from 80.5% in the control group to 71.5% when treated with the lowest concentration of paraquat. Similarly, the life span of parasitoids that emerged from the mummy treated with paraquat also decreased significantly. Oviposition capability and ovipositor thrusting frequency of D. rapae also treated with sublethal dose paraquat decreased significantly along with a shortened patch residence time in the foraging area.     

密闭爆炸容器实验研究及数值模拟

实验研究了三种结构的爆炸容器在爆炸载荷下的响应情况；并通过二维多流体欧拉程序对二维爆炸场进行了数值模拟．在这个基础上用ＮＩＫＥ－２Ｄ对壳体的动态响应进行数值模拟。     

Application of the randomized response technique to marine park management: an assessment of permit compliance

Marine product collecting permits are useful management tools for providing information on usage patterns. Unfortunately, usage parameters based on permit issuance are invariably inaccurate because of permit noncompliance. Since noncompliance is a prosecutable offense, any attempt to estimate the rate of noncompliance by direct survey techniques is met with misleading and evasive responses. It has been shown elsewhere that randomized response designs reduce survey response bias to incriminating questions by ensuring respondent anonymity. With the use of the randomized response survey technique, estimates of permit noncompliance were determined for the Capricornia Section of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. Noncompliance with the requirement to obtain the prescribed permit was found to be low whereas, once a permit was obtained, noncompliance with specific permit conditions was considered high. Reasons for the high rate of noncompliance with specific conditions are presented, and it is recommended that marine park managers should not unreservedly base management decisions on usage data derived simply from permit issuance.     

Community-based Disaster Management During the 1997 Red River Flood in Canada

This paper examines the relationship between community preparedness and response to natural disaster and their level and pattern of community development. This is done by investigating preparation and response to the 1997 Red River Flood by three rural communities in Manitoba, Canada. The communities were selected because of their different ethnic mix and associated level and pattern of community development. The hypothesis was supported that the level and pattern of community development affect community capacity to respond to flooding. Communities characterised by higher levels of physical, human and social capital were better prepared and more effective responders to the flood. However, where the pattern of community development was characterised by high levels of social capital, decision-making processes were complicated.