混沌理论在事故分析及预测中的应用

在对江苏常州市某公司安全事故资料进行大量调查与统计的基础上,应用混沌理论分析了该公司安全事故的混沌特征,指出了事故对初始条件的敏感依赖性和事故的长期不可预测性。应用重构相空间理论对安全事故次数的时间序列进行了分析和预测。同时,还对安全事故统计资料进行了R/S分析,得出该时间序列以2 0 0 1年6月为界限,存在两个Hurst指数,H1=1.6 82 8和H2 =0 .2 936 ,表明在以3个月为时间统计尺度的条件下,事故发生次数在前一时间段整体表现为持久相关性,而在后一时间段表现为反持久相关性。预测与分析结果与实际情况符合较好,表明应用混沌理论进行事故分析与预测是可行的,反映了事故的发展趋势。     

Bacteria Degrading PCBs and CBs Isolated from Long-Term PCB Contaminated Soil

Bacteria able to degrade polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and chlorobenzoic acids (CBs) were isolated from soil that had been contaminated with PCBs for 15–30 years. Contaminated soil in which PCB content ranged between 10–470 mg/kg was naturally vegetated with different plants including ash (Fraxinus excelsior), birch (Betula pendula), black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia), Austrian pine (Pinus nigra) and goat willow (Salix caprea) trees as well as a variety of grasses and forbs. Bacteria able to use biphenyl as a sole source of carbon and energy were found in the root zone of all plants, but occurred in the largest numbers beneath pine and black locust. Bacteria able to degrade chlorobenzoic acids were isolated from the same location contaminated with PCBs. Strains that were taxonomically identified by 16S rDNA as Pandoraea were able to use 2-CB, 3-CB, 2,3-CB, 2,5-CB as sole carbon sources, and the strain Arthrobacter utilised 4-CB.     

Natural environmental impact assessment: A rational approach

A method is presented which combines environmental indices and estimates of inputs from various land uses to aid in environmental impact assessments. Unweighted pair/group cluster analyses are used to obtain relationships between easily observable environmental indices, such as vegetation types, soils, and geology, based on their mutual recurrence. These relationships are shown by using an ordination technique which shows the nature of complex impacts on a natural system. Results are used to develop anenvironmental effects sequence diagram based on known scientific and engineering principles and observed natural relationships. The diagram may be used in conjunction with land use data to estimate the possible magnitude of impacts on the pre-existing system which may result from such land use. Several examples are developed which quantify inputs from various land uses and which compare them with environmental inputs including point source and non-point source liquid and atmospheric emmissions, land modifications, and resource consumption. Known average values are used and a separate comparison is made in describing the vast differences between the project phases of construction versus longterm operation. A hypothetical environmental impact assessment is given for a small residential development in Chambers County, Texas, U.S. of A.     

Formula allocation as a policy tool: politics and measurement

Formula allocation is a major tool for the distribution of public funds in the United States of America. This paper explores several examples of formulae used in U.S. domestic programmes, looking at their construction, meaning and consequences. The authors argue that the design of formulae is both a political and technical task. The paper concludes with a series of recommendations to improve formulae as tools of distributional policy.     

THE USE OF MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODELS IN PREDICTING SEDIMENT YIELD1

ABSTRACT. Four commonly used models for predicting sediment yield are analyzed and compared using previously published data. Three of these models involve logarithmic transformations. Some of the problems involved in transforming data are discussed in the context of logarithmic transformations. These problems are illustrated using the results of standard regression analyses and economic loss function analyses. For the data analyzed, the linear model is preferable to each of the logarithmic models on the basis of each analysis, and the usual multiple objective nature of the model choice problem is thus modified. The extent to which these results can be generalized is discussed in the context of model choice.     

3S技术与建立重庆市渝中区环境信息系统的思考

简介3S技术及3S技术在环境信息系统中的应用现状。以重庆市渝中区“八五”、“九五”期间环境空气质量监测信息的获取方式为切入点，探讨建立渝中区环境信息系统的必要性和可行性。提出基于3S技术的渝中区环境信息系统的基本构架和功能。     

岩石磁化率各向异性测量及其数据处理方法

岩石的磁化率各向异性参数(A.M.S.),在地质科学研究中的应用已受到越来越多的重视。目前测量A.M.S.的仪器主要有旋转磁力仪和卡帕桥。结合笔者的实践,本文比较详细地介绍这两类仪器用于进行各向异性测量的原理以及数据处理方法。     

海河流域碳、氮、硫、磷及生态环境数据库

介绍了海河流域碳、氮、硫、磷及生态环境数据库的建库目标,指导系统分解的概念模型,选择录入数据的指标体系,数据库系统构成及所含6个子库典型输出表。做为数据库的必要功效补充,还建立了地理信息系统。整个数据库系统是在DBASE-Ⅲ、汉化地理信息系统工具和FORTRAN-77统计与模式程序包支持下,在PC/AT微机上实现的。     

Postnatal placental confirmation of trisomy 2 and trisomy 16 detected at chorionic villus sampling: A possible association with intrauterine growth retardation and elevated maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein

Detection of trisomy 2 and trisomy 16 mosaicism through chorionic villus sampling (CVS) is not an infrequent finding. We describe here two cases, one of non-mosaic trisomy 2 and the other of high level mosaicism for trisorny 16. Amniocentesis in both cases demonstrated non-mosaic 46,XY karyotypes. Each pregnancy continued to delivery of liveborn, normal-appearing boys; both pregnancies were complicated by severe intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR). Postnatal studies of placental biopsies in both cases confirmed the original CVS findings, whereas cord blood karyotypes were normal in both boys. Both children have demonstrated adequate catch-up growth.     

基于JSP和Mysq1的环境监测网络数据管理

从环境监测数据管理的意义和重要性出发,介绍了环境监测网络数据管理系统,并给出了空气质量监测数据在系统中流程和计算处理的方法,实现了环境监测数据网络管理的功能,保证了空气质量数据传输的准确性和实时性。