居民用电消费回弹效应研究:基于人均收入和性别差异的视角

居民住户用电消费的回弹效应对中国建设节约型社会具有重要影响,但从居民住户微观调查视角对用电回弹效应进行分析并剖析回弹效应影响因素的文献较为少见。本文基于CGSS数据库1969个居民数据,采用双对数模型测算中国居民用电的回弹效应,并通过分组回归法探讨影响回弹效应的因素。得到以下结论:①中国居民用电消费存在回弹效应(43.51%),表明当用电效率提高时,预期节电量的43.51%将被用电成本降低导致额外增加的电量消费所抵消;②人均收入对居民用电的回弹效应具有显著作用,收入水平与回弹效应呈现倒V型趋势;③性别差异对居民用电的回弹效应存在显著影响,男性消费者的回弹效应明显高于女性。鉴于上述结论,政府在制定居民节能政策时需要重视电力消费的回弹效应,并针对不同收入群体和性别差异采取针对性举措。     

我国生态工业园区政策可持续性的动力机制

为了有效地推动工业园区的生态转型,相关的政策支持需要考虑时间的连续性及阶段性。本文以我国生态工业园区政策为例,运用事件序列分析方法,重构了政策长时期演化过程,剖析其序列规律,以此揭示促进我国生态工业园区政策可持续性的动力机制。结果表明：我国生态工业园区政策的演化路径经历了从单一机构到多部门合作治理的转变,从政策学习与实验型实施到实验型与行政规范化相结合的实施方式的转变。这些转变提升了政策实施初期的适应性与政策实施中后期的稳定性,从而提升了政策的生命力,促进了政策的可持续性与积极政策结果的实现。     

The undermining effect revisited: The salience of everyday verbal rewards and self‐determined motivation

Self‐determination theory suggests that some rewards can undermine autonomous motivation and related positive outcomes. Key to this undermining is the extent to which rewards are perceived as salient in a given situation; when this is the case, individuals tend to attribute their behavior to the incentive, and the intrinsic value of the task is undermined. The role of salience has yet to be explicitly tested with respect to work motivation; we know little about whether undermining occurs in relation to verbal rewards, which characterize everyday work. We examine this in a field‐based quantitative diary study of 58 employees reporting 287 critical incidents of motivated behavior. When considering simple direct effects, the undermining effect was not supported; highly salient verbal rewards associated positively with introjected and external motivation, but at no cost to autonomous motivation. However, moderator analysis found support for the undermining effect for complex tasks; highly salient verbal rewards associated positively with external motivation while associating negatively with intrinsic and identified motivation. The findings suggest that verbal reward salience is an important characteristic of verbal reward perceptions and that salient verbal rewards are not advisable for more complex tasks but can have a valuable motivational impact for simple tasks. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Model experiment on the dynamic process of oil leakage from the double hull tanker

This paper presents an experimental investigation on oil leakage from the double hull tanker (DHT). It is designed to explore the dynamic process of oil leakage from bottom-rupture hole of DHT. The experimental test shows the leakage resistance mechanism of ballast tank space. The behavior of oil leakage from damaged DHT and dynamic features of flow in the overall process are demonstrated from experimental results. The overall process of oil leakage is divided into free-leakage and resistance-leakage stage according to the corresponding power to study the dynamic features of oil-water flow inside or outside the tank. The corresponding dominated factors of oil leakage in different stage are also pointed out, and the unsteady Bernoulli’s equation is used to verify experimental results. Meanwhile, viscous effect in leakage process is discussed and the importance of hydrodynamic features associated with the mechanism of oil leakage is explored from experimental results.     

Underground parallel pipelines domino effect: An analysis based on pipeline crater models and historical accidents

This paper focuses on the analysis of the possibility of domino effect in underground parallel pipelines relying on historical accident data and pipeline crater models. An underground pipeline can be considered as safe following an accident with an adjacent gas or liquefied pipeline when it remains outside the ground crater generated. In order to prevent the domino effect in these cases, the design of parallel pipelines has to consider adequate pipeline separations based on the crater width, which is one of the widely used methods in engineering applications. The objective of this work is the analysis of underground petroleum product pipelines ruptures with the formation of a ground crater as well as the evaluation of possible domino effects in these cases. A detailed literature survey has been carried out to review existing crater models along with a historical analysis of past accidents. A FORTRAN code has been implemented to assess the performance of the Gasunie, the Batelle and the Advantica crater models. In addition to this, a novel Accident-Based crater model has been presented, which allows the prediction of the crater width as a function of the relevant design pipeline parameters as well as the soil density. Modifications have also been made to the Batelle and Accident-Based models in order to overcome the underestimation of the crater width. The calculated crater widths have been compared with real accident data and the performance evaluation showed that the proposed Accident-Based model has a better performance compared to other models studied in this work. The analysis of forty-eight past accidents indicated a major potential of underground parallel pipelines domino effect which is proven by two real cases taken from the literature. Relying on the investigated accidents, the crater width was smaller than or equal to 20 m in most cases indicating that the definition of underground pipeline separations at around 10 m would be sufficient to ensure a small probability of the domino effect.     

中国硫酸盐气溶胶直接辐射效应数值模拟

硫酸盐气溶胶对地球系统能量收支平衡和全球气候变化有重要影响.本研究基于中国2007年二氧化硫排放清单,应用Can METOP、OPAC和SBDART模型,对中国硫酸盐气溶胶直接辐射效应及其空间分布和时间变化进行分析.结果表明,2007年中国硫酸盐气溶胶直接辐射效应全年波动范围在-9.1~0.0008 W·m~(-2)之间,全国年均值为-1.372 W·m~(-2),低于全球均值(-0.35 W·m~(-2)),其中华东地区最强为-5.017 W·m~(-2),西北地区最弱仅为-0.22 W·m~(-2),该空间分布主要受SO_2排放的空间差异及西风导致的向东溢出效应影响.同时,除华南之外的绝大多数地区夏季辐射效应最强、冬季最弱,这主要由SO_2向硫酸盐的转化率及相对湿度的季节差异决定.本研究有助于了解中国硫酸盐气溶胶及其气候效应的时空差异,对评估硫酸盐气溶胶的气候效应有重要意义.     

兰州市工业能源碳排放强度及效应研究

运用容量耦合拓展模型对兰州市2003—2013年环境系统耦合度进行评价,通过核算兰州市2003—2013年各年工业碳排放量,分析了4类工业碳排放强度变化特征,并运用LMDI模型对碳排放效应进行了多维度分解.结果表明,兰州市环境系统总体质量水平较低,环境状态指数和环境耦合度指数较低;兰州市工业碳排放总量逐年递增,碳排放与工业增加值、GDP、人口数量和城市建成区面积等呈显著正相关关系;原煤、原油、焦炭和天然气是兰州市的主要碳源,人均碳强呈显著增长态势,而工业碳强、GDP碳强、地均碳强均呈下降趋势;能源结构效应和人口规模效应在低位值附近波动变化,而能源强度效应和人均经济效应均在高位值附近波动,且后两项指标累积效应显著大于前两项指标,总体发挥正向碳增长效应.     

Advanced treatment of wet-spun acrylic fiber manufacturing wastewater using three-dimensional electrochemical oxidation

A three-dimensional electrochemical oxidation(3D-EC) reactor with introduction of activated carbon(AC) as particle micro-electrodes was applied for the advanced treatment of secondary wastewater effluent of a wet-spun acrylic fiber manufacturing plant. Under the optimized conditions(current density of 500 A/m~2, circulation rate of 5 mL/min, AC dosage of 50 g, and chloride concentration of 1.0 g/L), the average removal efficiencies of chemical oxygen demand(COD_(cr)), NH3–N, total organic carbon(TOC), and ultraviolet absorption at 254 nm(UV_(254)) of the 3D-EC reactor were 64.5%, 60.8%, 46.4%, and 64.8%, respectively; while the corresponding effluent concentrations of COD_(cr), NH_3–N, TOC, and UV_(254) were 76.6, 20.1, and42.5 mg/L, and 0.08 Abs/cm, respectively. The effluent concentration of COD_(cr) was less than 100 mg/L, which showed that the treated wastewater satisfied the demand of the integrated wastewater discharge standard(GB 8978-1996). The 3D-EC process remarkably improved the treatment efficiencies with synergistic effects for COD_(cr), NH_3–N, TOC, and UV_(254) during the stable stage of 44.5%, 38.8%, 27.2%, and 10.9%, respectively, as compared with the sum of the efficiencies of a two-dimensional electrochemical oxidation(2D-EC) reactor and an AC adsorption process, which was ascribed to the numerous micro-electrodes of AC in the 3D-EC reactor. Gas chromatography mass spectrometry(GC–MS) analysis revealed that electrochemical treatment did not generate more toxic organics, and it was proved that the increase in acute biotoxicity was caused primarily by the production of free chlorine.     

Ensuring social acceptance of the energy transition. The German government’s ‘consensus management’ strategy

This study deals with the German Federal Government’s approach of ensuring public support for its ‘Energiewende’, the swift and complete transition to an energy system based on renewable sources. First, the government’s ‘consensus management’ strategy is described as consisting of four elements: the setup of stakeholder deliberation fora; the funding of organisations dedicated to the public promotion of the energy transition; public campaigns that appeal to people’s commitment and the support of research on energy technologies. The study then traces the need for a strong social mandate of the energy transition back to the scope of the regulatory challenge and the recently growing conflicts around implementation, to institutional constraints of a consensus democracy and to the narrative of ‘Energiewende’ as the ‘grand national task’.