Using the bootstrap with two-phase adaptive stratified samples from multiple populations at multiple locations

Recently the two-phase adaptive stratified sampling design proposed by Francis (1984) has been extended by Manly et al. (2002) for situations where several biological populations are sampled simultaneously, and where this is done at several different geographical locations in order to estimate population totals or means. The method uses the results from a first phase sample to decide how best to allocate a second phase sample to locations and strata, in order to maximise a criterion (based on estimated coefficients of variation) that measures the accuracy of estimation for population totals, for all variables at all locations. One potential problem with this method is bias in the estimators of the population totals and means. In this paper bootstrapping is considered as a means of overcoming these biases. It is shown using model populations of Pacific walrus and shellfish, based on real data, that bootstrapping is a useful tool for removing about half of the bias. This is also confirmed from some simulations using artificial data.     

农村经济活动对云南野生稻居群的影响

云南野生稻包括普通野生稻(O.rufipogon Griff)、疣粒野生稻(O.meyeriana Baill)和药用野生稻(O.officinalis Wall),是属于全国仅存的几处宝贵基因资源库之一。野生稻具有许多优良特性及其相应的基因,在栽培稻育种和生物技术利用等方面具有巨大的潜力。文章在对云南野生稻居群长期调查或考察的基础上,分析了云南野生稻居群濒危的现状,认为热区经济开发、游牧、木材消耗、采集草药、外来种入侵和环境污染等农村经济活动是致濒的主要因素。阐明了选择合理的保护方法、加大普法和执法力度、完善保护体制与运行机制、调整种植结构是当前云南野生稻居群保护管理与经济协调发展的四项重点措施。     

海洋纤毛虫实验生态学研究Ⅳ:不同人工海水培养液及温度对扇形游仆虫种群增长的影响

为了揭示出海洋纤毛虫在人工海水中及不同温度下的种群动力学，利用实验生态学方法，就4种培养液及2种（17℃和23℃）温度对海洋纤毛虫扇形游仆虫（Euplotes vannus Mailer，1786）种群增长的影响进行了初步探讨．结果显示：①该种纤毛虫原生动物在4种人工海水培养液中的种群增长率大小顺序为：牛肉浸膏培养液〉米粒培养液〉酵母粉培养液〉蛋白胨培养液；②种群密度大小顺序依次为：米粒培养液〉牛肉浸膏培养液〉酵母粉培养液〉蛋白胨培养液；③指数增长期及稳定期在米粒培养液中均长于牛肉浸膏培养液；④随着培养温度的升高，种群增长率增大，指数增长期及稳定期缩短；⑤温度系数（Q10）的大小顺序为：蛋白胨培养液〉牛肉浸膏培养液〉米粒培养液〉酵母粉培养液．结果表明，米粒人工海水培养液不仅适合于保种培养，而且适合于种群的扩大培养，而牛肉浸膏培养液更适合于种群的快速扩大培养，其他两种培养液则只适合于保种培养．图2表4参13     

Statistical inference on patch-specific survival and movement rates from marked animals

Empirical estimates of patch-specific survival and movement rates are needed to parametrize spatially explicit population models, and for inference on the effects of habitat quality and fragmentation on populations. Data from radio-marked animals, in which both the fates and habitat locations of animals are known over time, can be used in conjunction with continuous-time proportional hazards models to obtain inferences on survival rates. Discrete-time conditional logistic models may provide inference on both survival and movement rates. We use Monte Carlo simulation to investigate accuracy of estimates of survival from both approaches, and movement rates from conditional logistic regression, for two habitats. Bias was low (relative bias < 0.04) and interval coverage accurate (close to the nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect on survival based on proportional hazards. Bias was high ( relative bias 0.60) and interval coverage poor ( = 0.26 vs. nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect based on conditional logistic regression; bias was especially influenced by heterogeneity in survival and the shape of the hazard function, whereas both bias and coverage were affected by ‘memory’ effects in movement patterns. Bias estimates of movement rate was low ( relative bias < 0.05), but interval coverage was poor ( = 0.48–0.80), possibly as a result of poor performance of a Taylor series estimate of variance. An example is provided from a radio-telemetry study of 47 wintering American woodcock (Scolopax minor), illustrating practical difficulties in field studies to parametrize these models. We also discuss extensions of continuous-time models to explicitly include a movement process, and further examine tradeoffs between continuous and discrete models.     

环境约束下牧区人口和种群持续增长模型研究

利用多元统计分析方法,对青海湖地区历年人口和种群的统计数据进行分析,并建立在环境约束下人口和种群持续增长模型,对区域人口适度规模、畜群最大环境容纳量和最大持续产量进行了估算和分析。通过估算得出:青海湖地区牦牛环境容纳量为51.9327万头,最大可持续产量为12.9831万头;藏羊环境容纳量为231.203万只,最大可持续产量为57.8007万只。在此分析的基础上,利用建立的相关模型以5a为时间段对青海湖地区未来25a的人口和牲畜数量进行了预测。最后,针对性地提出了大力改善草地生态环境、提高草地利用率和增加草地面积、采取人为措施调节牲畜出栏率、改变草畜生态环境等高原牧区人口、资源与环境可持续发展的对策。     

Reproductive Success of Captive-Bred Steelhead Trout in the Wild: Evaluation of Three Hatchery Programs in the Hood River

Abstract:  Population supplementation programs that release captive-bred offspring into the wild to boost the size of endangered populations are now in place for many species. The use of hatcheries for supplementing salmonid populations has become particularly popular. Nevertheless, whether such programs actually increase the size of wild populations remains unclear, and predictions that supplementation fish drag down the fitness of wild fish remain untested. To address these issues, we performed DNA-based parentage analyses on almost complete samples of anadromous steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) in the Hood River in Oregon (U.S.A.). Steelhead from a supplementation hatchery (reared in a supplementation hatchery and then allowed to spawn naturally in the wild) had reproductive success indistinguishable from that of wild fish. In contrast, fish from a traditional hatchery (nonlocal origin, multiple generations in hatcheries) breeding in the same river showed significantly lower fitness than wild fish. In addition, crosses between wild fish and supplementation fish were as reproductively successful as those between wild parents. Thus, there was no sign that supplementation fish drag down the fitness of wild fish by breeding with them for a single generation. On the other hand, crosses between hatchery fish of either type (traditional or supplementation) were less fit than expected, suggesting a possible interaction effect. These are the first data to show that a supplementation program with native brood stock can provide a single-generation boost to the size of a natural steelhead population without obvious short-term fitness costs. The long-term effects of population supplementation remain untested.     

Effects of Climate and Land-Use Change on Species Abundance in a Central European Bird Community

Abstract:  Although it is known that changes in land use and climate have an impact on ecological communities, it is unclear which of these factors is currently most important. We sought to determine the influence of land-use and climate alteration on changes in the abundance of Central European birds. We examined the impact of these factors by contrasting abundance changes of birds of different breeding habitat, latitudinal distribution, and migratory behavior. We examined data from the semiquantitative Breeding Bird Atlas of Lake Constance, which borders Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. Changes in the regional abundance of the 159 coexisting bird species from 1980–1981 to 2000–2002 were influenced by all three factors. Farmland birds, species with northerly ranges, and long-distance migrants declined, and wetland birds and species with southerly ranges increased in abundance. A separate analysis of the two decades between 1980–1981 and 1990–1992 and between 1990–1992 and 2000–2002 showed that the impact of climate change increased significantly over time. Latitudinal distribution was not significant in the first decade and became the most significant predictor of abundance changes in the second decade. Although the spatial scale and temporal resolution of our study is limited, this is the first study that suggests that climate change has overtaken land-use modification in determining population trends of Central European birds.     

Assessment of Effectiveness of Protection Strategies in Tanzania Based on a Decade of Survey Data for Large Herbivores

Abstract:  Considerable controversy surrounds the effectiveness of strictly protected areas that prohibit consumptive resource use. For Tanzania we compared temporal changes in densities of large herbivores among heavily protected national parks and game reserves, partially protected game-controlled areas, and areas with little or no protection. Comparisons based on surveys conducted in the late 1980s and early 1990s versus the late 1990s and early 2000s showed three consistent patterns across the country. First, significant declines in the densities of large herbivores between these two snapshots in time overwhelmingly outnumbered significant increases in all protection categories. Second, more species fared well (increased significantly or showed no significant change) in strictly protected national parks than in areas with partial or no protection and in heavily protected game reserves relative to areas with no protection. Third, significantly more species fared poorly (densities declined or were too low to detect a decline) than fared well in areas with partial or no protection. Our results show that although heavy protection was generally more effective in maintaining large herbivore populations than partial or no protection, continued long-term monitoring is needed in Tanzania to inform managers whether large herbivores are experiencing declining population trends even within heavily protected areas .