岷江上游林线附近岷江冷杉种群(Abies faxoniana Rehd.et Wild)的生态学特点

在松潘县弓杠岭采用样方调查的方法针对岷江冷杉(Abies faxoniana)种群结构、幼苗更新及个体生长及与海拔变化的关系进行了研究,样地分别位于林线下方、林线及树线区,个体年龄采用WinDENRO系统或侧生轮枝计数的方法确定,结果发现：(1)岷江冷杉种群更新与样地海拔高度、干扰强度有关,(2)岷江冷杉的个体生长过程可分为生长期、成熟期、过熟期3个阶段,但随着海拔的升高,这3个时期生长速度的差异变得不明显,(3)3个样地内岷江冷杉种群随海拔升高,其平均高度呈现由高到低,胸径由大到小,个体数量由多到少的变化趋势,(4)岷江冷杉种群大中型立木中出现由于病腐导致空心树的比例随海拔升高有增加趋势,图4表1参28     

北京城市大气污染源的暴露效率研究

为了精确地估算产业部门不同类别与特征的大气污染源对指定区域的污染强度 ,采用暴露效率概念及其研究方法。以北京城区为例 ,应用大气污染扩散模型ISCST3,由污染排放数据、全年逐时气象数据以及市区人口分布 ,求得 1999年各污染源对北京市区SO2 ,PM10 ,NOx 等污染物浓度的贡献率和北京城区居民的暴露效率。研究表明 ,不同行业污染源导致SO2 暴露效率在 2× 10 -6～ 2 0× 10 -6之间 ,PM10 、NOx 暴露效率在 2× 10 -6～ 5 0× 10 -6之间。采暖 ,交通等行业部门的污染源产生的暴露效率较大 ,而污染物排放量较大的污染源 (电厂 ) ,由于远离人口密集区并且排放高度较高 ,因此暴露效率较小。     

Use of Spatial Capture‐Recapture Modeling and DNA Data to Estimate Densities of Elusive Animals

Abstract: Assessment of abundance, survival, recruitment rates, and density (i.e., population assessment) is especially challenging for elusive species most in need of protection (e.g., rare carnivores). Individual identification methods, such as DNA sampling, provide ways of studying such species efficiently and noninvasively. Additionally, statistical methods that correct for undetected animals and account for locations where animals are captured are available to efficiently estimate density and other demographic parameters. We collected hair samples of European wildcat (Felis silvestris) from cheek‐rub lure sticks, extracted DNA from the samples, and identified each animals’ genotype. To estimate the density of wildcats, we used Bayesian inference in a spatial capture‐recapture model. We used WinBUGS to fit a model that accounted for differences in detection probability among individuals and seasons and between two lure arrays. We detected 21 individual wildcats (including possible hybrids) 47 times. Wildcat density was estimated at 0.29/km² (SE 0.06), and 95% of the activity of wildcats was estimated to occur within 1.83 km from their home‐range center. Lures located systematically were associated with a greater number of detections than lures placed in a cell on the basis of expert opinion. Detection probability of individual cats was greatest in late March. Our model is a generalized linear mixed model; hence, it can be easily extended, for instance, to incorporate trap‐ and individual‐level covariates. We believe that the combined use of noninvasive sampling techniques and spatial capture‐recapture models will improve population assessments, especially for rare and elusive animals.     

Investigating Potential for Depensation in Marine Turtles: How Low Can You Go?

Abstract:  Where mechanisms inherent within the biology of a species affect individual fitness at low density, demographic-scale depensation may occur, hastening further decline and leading ultimately to population extirpation and species extinction. Reduction in fertility at low population densities has been identified in marine and terrestrial species. Using data on hatch success and hatchling-emergence success as proxies for fertilization success, we conducted a global meta-analysis of data from breeding aggregations of green turtles ( Chelonia mydas ) and loggerhead turtles ( Caretta caretta ). We found that there has been no reduction in fertility in small nesting aggregations in either of these species worldwide. We considered mechanisms within the mating strategies and reproductive biology of marine turtles that may allow for novel genetic input and facilitate enhanced gene flow among rookeries. Behavioral reproductive mechanisms, such as natal philopatry and polyandry, may mitigate potential impacts of depensation and contribute to the resilience of these species.     

Demographic Side Effects of Selective Hunting in Ungulates and Carnivores

Abstract:  Selective harvesting regimes are often implemented because age and sex classes contribute differently to population dynamics and hunters show preferences associated with body size and trophy value. We reviewed the literature on how such cropping regimes affect the demography of the remaining population (here termed demographic side effects ). First, we examined the implications of removing a large proportion of a specific age or sex class. Such harvesting strategies often bias the population sex ratio toward females and reduce the mean age of males, which may consequently delay birth dates, reduce birth synchrony, delay body mass development, and alter offspring sex ratios. Second, we reviewed the side effects associated with the selective removal of relatively few specific individuals, often large trophy males. Such selective harvesting can destabilize social structures and the dominance hierarchy and may cause loss of social knowledge, sexually selected infanticide, habitat changes among reproductive females, and changes in offspring sex ratio. A common feature of many of the reported mechanisms is that they ultimately depress recruitment and in some extreme cases even cause total reproductive collapse. These effects could act additively and destabilize the dynamics of populations, thus having a stronger effect on population growth rate than first anticipated. Although more experimental than observational studies reported demographic side effects, we argue that this may reflect the quite subtle mechanisms involved, which are unlikely to be detected in observational studies without rigorous monitoring regimes. We call for more detailed studies of hunted populations with marked individuals that address how the expression of these effects varies across mating systems, habitats, and with population density. Theoretical models investigating how strongly these effects influence population growth rates are also required.     

不同起始密度对3种赤潮微藻种群增长的影响

研究了不同起始密度下,赤潮异弯藻、亚历山大藻和中肋骨条藻种群增长的特征。结果表明:3种赤潮藻的生长曲线可用逻辑斯谛增长模型拟合。不同的起始密度(0.2×104mL-1、0.4×104mL-1和0.8×104mL-1)对3种藻生长过程中进入指数生长期和静止期的时间、所达到的种群最大密度均有影响。随着起始密度的提高,3种藻进入指数生长期和静止期的时间缩短,但所达到的种群最大密度有降低的趋势。     

Model of coral population response to accelerated bleaching and mass mortality in a changing climate

We model coral community response to bleaching and mass mortality events which are predicted to increase in frequency with climate change. The model was parameterized for the Arabian/Persian Gulf, but is generally applicable. We assume three species groups (Acropora, faviids, and Porites) in two life-stages each where the juveniles are in competition but the adults can enter a size-refuge in which they cannot be competitively displaced. An aggressive group (Acropora species) dominates at equilibrium, which is not reached due to mass mortality events that primarily disadvantage this group (compensatory mortality, >90% versus 25% in faviids and Porites) roughly every 15 years. Population parameters (N individuals, carrying capacity) were calculated from satellite imagery and in situ transects, vital rates (fecundity, mortality, and survival) were derived from the model, field observations, and literature. It is shown that populations and unaltered community structure can persist despite repeated 90% mortality, given sufficiently high fecundity of the remaining population or import from connected populations. The frequency of disturbance determines the dominant group—in low frequency Acropora, in high frequency Porites. This is congruent with field observations. The model of an isolated population was more sensitive to parameter changes than that of connected populations. Highest sensitivity was to mortality rate and recruitment rate. Community composition was sensitive to spacing of disturbances and level of catastrophic mortality. Decreased mortality led to Acropora dominance, increased mortality led to Acropora extinction. In nature, closely spaced disturbances have severely disadvantaged Acropora populations over the last decade. Unless a longer (>10 years) disturbance-free interval can be maintained, a permanent shift away from Acropora dominance will be observed. A mortality rate of 99% in Acropora, as observed in 1996, is not sustainable if repetitive and neither is a disturbance frequency <15 years—each leading to population collapse. This shows that the severity and/or the spacing of the 1996–1998–2002 disturbances were unusual in frequency and duration.     

呋喃丹对海南花岗岩砖红壤微生物种群的影响

在室温下培养土样并采用梯度稀释涂布的方法研究了不同质量分数的呋喃丹对砖红壤中细菌、真菌和放线菌3大主要土壤微生物种群数量变化的影响。结果表明,细菌、真菌和放线菌种群对呋喃丹的反应随其施加质量分数的不同而有所差别。培养初期,5mg·kg-1呋喃丹处理土壤的细菌、真菌、放线菌数量相对最少。而在整个培养周期内随着培养时间的增加,各处理细菌和放线菌数量均能恢复并接近对照水平,但真菌的生长一直受到抑制且呋喃丹质量分数越大其受抑制程度也越大,表明呋喃丹对细菌和放线菌无明显的影响,而抑制真菌的趋势明显。因此,真菌可以被作为海南砖红壤受呋喃丹污染的敏感指示菌。     

四川盆地农业生态系统害鼠种群测报数学模型的研究

根据四川盆地农业生态系统害鼠种群数量连续3年的统计结果：方差分析证明种群数量在年周期间变化不显著,（F＜F0．05）而年内存在着显著的统计学差异（F＞F0．05）种群数量季节消长呈明显的双峰型模式,年周期内出现6月和11月两个数量高峰,两峰之间无显著性差异（t＜t0．01）．依据农田灭鼠的实际情况,用3月份的数量来预测6月份的种群数量,是理想的预测方案故本文依据该3年的数据,采用数学拟合方法,组建预测6月份数量高峰的短期预测模型．统计检验表明具有准确、可靠和实用的特点．