基于人口视角的公共服务均等化改革

公共服务的利益分享和成本分担,最终都会落实到每一个人的身上,"人"是其中的一个重要影响因素.我国不同社会成员享有的公共服务水平存在着很大的不同,而且各自所承担的公共服务提供成本也有着较大的差距.本文立足于"人"这一基点,从三个方面剖析了我国公共服务非均等格局形成的原因:①长期存在的对"人"身份进行区分的传统及其在我国社会经济制度中的体现是我国公共服务非均等格局形成的根源;②人口流动性的缺乏为我国公共服务非均等格局的形成提供了某种便利;③巨大的人口规模以及农村人口占多数的人口结构等也加剧了我国公共服务非均等格局的程度.从"人"的角度看,我国推进公共服务均等化改革的基本思路是:彻底消除身份传统在公共服务体制中的影响,建立起无差别的公共服务供给制度和公平的公共服务成本分担机制;努力提高人口的流动性,并使社会经济改革与不新提高的人口流动性相适应;通过大力发展中小城镇等方式来适当调整人口结构.     

城市规划中人口空间分布模拟方法研究

城市人口空间分布是影响社会经济活力、基础设施建设、公共服务配置以及城市交通、住宅、生态环境问题等方面的重要因素之一,是科学开展城市规划的基础与前提.传统的等值区域图法只能描述一个地区总体城市分布状况,难以准确反映城市内部人口的实际分布.本文通过综述国内外23篇研究成果,将城市人口分布空间模拟方法总结为城市人口密度模型、内插法空间分布模型、地理因子相关性模型(包括光谱估算法、土地利用密度法、居住单元估算法、夜间灯光强度估算法、硬化地表估算法)3大类7种,分析了它们各自的特点及改进措施.人口空间分布模拟在我国城市规划体系中有较大应用价值,重点讨论了在城镇体系规划、城市总体规划以及详细规划等不同规划层面人口空间分布适用模拟技术.最后指出为提高我国城市规划的科学性和预测精度,综合运用多种方法对城市人口空间分布进行估算模拟将成为该领域研究趋势,以期为城市规划管理提供技术参考.     

Nonparametric spatial covariance functions: Estimation and testing

Spatial autocorrelation techniques are commonly used to describe genetic and ecological patterns. To improve statistical inference about spatial covariance, we propose a continuous nonparametric estimator of the covariance function in place of the spatial correlogram. The spline correlogram is an adaptation of a recent development in spatial statistics and is a generalization of the commonly used correlogram. We propose a bootstrap algorithm to erect a confidence envelope around the entire covariance function. The meaning of this envelope is discussed. Not all functions that can be drawn inside the envelope are candidate covariance functions, as they may not be positive semidefinite. However, covariance functions that do not fit, are not supported by the data. A direct estimate of the L₀ spatial correlation length with associated confidence interval is offered and its interpretation is discussed. The spline correlogram is found to have high precision when applied to synthetic data. For illustration, the method is applied to electrophoretic data of an alpine grass (Poa alpina).     

Rapid Assessment of Population Size by Area Sampling in Disaster Situations

In the initial phase of a complex emergency, an immediate population size assessment method, based on area sampling, is vital to provide relief workers with a rapid population estimate in refugee camps. In the past decade, the method has been progressively improved; six examples are presented in this paper and questions raised about its statistical validity as well as important issues for further research. There are two stages. The first is to map the camp by registering all of its co-ordinates. In the second stage, the total camp population is estimated by counting the population living in a limited number of square blocks of known surface area, and by extrapolating average population calculated per block to the total camp surface. In six camps selected in Asia and Africa, between 1992 and 1994, population figures were estimated within one to two days. After measuring all external limits, surfaces were calculated and ranged between 121,300 and 2,770,000 square metres. In five camps, the mean average population per square was obtained using blocks 25 by 25 meters (625 m2), and for another camp with blocks 100 by 100 m2. In three camps, different population density zones were defined. Total camp populations obtained were 16,800 to 113,600. Although this method is a valuable public health tool in emergency situations, it has several limitations. Issues related to population density and number and size of blocks to be selected require further research for the method to be better validated.     

韶关市3座供水水库蓝藻种群及微囊藻毒素的季节变化

为了解供水水库的蓝藻种群和微囊藻毒素的季节变化,于2012年1—12月对韶关的苍村、瀑布和花山3座供水水库进行了采样分析。结果表明,3座水库为中营养型水库,监测蓝藻共9属(种),优势种为鱼腥藻和微囊藻,蓝藻最高丰度为5.67×107L-1;降水导致营养盐物质带入水库和水体不稳定性是蓝藻种群和优势种在夏秋两季季节变化和占优势的主要影响因子。3座水库ρ(微囊藻毒素)为0.1~0.9μg/L,最高值接近世界卫生组织对饮用水中MC-LR的指导性限制值(1μg/L)标准。微囊藻与微囊藻毒素呈显著正相关性(R=0.871,P0.01),表明产微囊藻毒素的蓝藻主要为微囊藻,当水库发生微囊藻水华时有发生微囊藻毒素的风险。     

中国高分辨率近地面NO2浓度反演

通过分析2010年全国333个县级以上城市卫星遥感的NO2对流层年均柱浓度与地面实际观测浓度之间的相关性,发现两者具有一定的线性相关性(r=0.54,n=333),并建立了NO2"遥感柱浓度"与"地面观测浓度"之间的关联方程,通过该方程反演了中国0.125°分辨率近地面NO2污染分布特征。结果表明,全国近地面NO2浓度超过《环境空气质量标准》(GB 3095—2012)要求的年均浓度二级标准(0.04 mg/m3)的区域约为5.95万平方千米,超标地区主要集中在华北平原、长三角地区、四川盆地和珠三角地区,这些地区NO2污染水平远高于333个城市的年平均值(0.028 mg/m3)。NO2污染极不平衡,以大中型城市为中心的区域污染特征显著。NO2人口加权浓度分析结果表明,NO2人口加权浓度高值区主要集中在能源消费量大、机动车保有量大及人口密集的地区,全国约5.7%的人口暴露在NO2超标区域。     

城市生活垃圾问题研究的系统动力学方法

利用被称为战略与策略实验室的系统动力学方法,建立了城市生活垃圾问题的系统动力学研究模型;以北京市为实例,探讨了垃圾排放及污染随人口和经济发展的变化,以及污染和占地损失、绿色GDP核算、居民家庭、企事业单位生活垃圾与建筑垃圾组合收费方案等问题.     

壬基酚对Americamysis bahia种群安全暴露基准浓度的确定

采用正态分布累积函数和幂函数,分别建立了壬基酚(NP)对Americamysis bahia多代种群暴露影响的浓度-种群周限增长率(λ)和浓度-种群内禀增长率(r)曲线,根据各自拟合的模型选择基准(MSC)值选择幂函数浓度-r曲线来估算种群安全暴露浓度.使用浓度-r曲线的浓度(r=0)的95%置信区间下限作为种群水平上的安全暴露基准浓度,确定了NP对Americamysis bahia种群多代安全暴露浓度(1.87μg·l-1).这个基准浓度要低于多代暴露实验所获得的NP的个体水平上的慢性繁殖毒性的安全浓度(12μg·l-1).     

Learning-by-catching: uncertain invasive-species populations and the value of information

This paper develops a model of invasive species control when the species’ population size is unknown. In the face of an uncertain population size, a resource manager's species-control efforts provide two potential benefits: (1) a direct benefit of possibly reducing the population of invasive species, and (2) an indirect benefit of information acquisition (due to learning about the population size, which reduces uncertainty). We provide a methodology that takes into account both of these benefits, and show how optimal management decisions are altered in the presence of the indirect benefit of learning. We then apply this methodology to the case of controlling the Brown Treesnake (Boiga irregularis) on the island of Saipan. We find that the indirect benefit—the value of information to reduce uncertainty—is likely to be quite large.     

The distance between state and rural society in the PRC. Reading document no 1 (February 2004)

While the People's Republic of China appears on a daily basis in all of the important newspapers around the world with its enormous successes in modernizing its economy, life in the Chinese countryside usually does not attract international attention. However, we know from a wide range of reports that the situation in the Chinese countryside is getting more and more complicated with local corruption, pollution and poverty growing in most parts of the country. The Chinese language press reports on a growing number of local uprisings in remote areas. While some analysts regard the situation in the countryside as a potential threat to the ongoing peaceful process of economic reform in China, China seems to be well prepared to cope with this change and the state is comparatively flexible in dealing with unrest among the rural population. So far the system itself has not been challenged by peasant discontent. This article introduces the idea that the distance between state and rural society is the basis of this flexibility. It will analyze a major policy document issued by the state and party leadership in order to show how state and rural society interact on the basis of a still insurmountable distance between state and rural society.