我国人口与生态压力分析

本文定量计算了我国各省人口压力和生态压力 ,在此基础上作了组合类型的划分 ,并提出分析意见。     

南京近30年人口空间格局演变与机制研究

人口分布是人口发展过程在地理空间中的表现形式,研究人口空间布局的时空演变过程,揭示其中的规律,确定影响因子,对引导人口合理布局,实现人口、资源、环境、社会的协调发展具有指导作用。以南京市为研究区域,1982年、1990年、2000年和2010年数据为依据,采用行政区划法、圈层方向法、空间插值法和热点分析法,从四大区域、区县、乡镇街道和网格等不同层次分析了南京近30 a人口空间格局演变过程;总结出人口格局演变的六大特征;最后,从经济发展水平、自然地理条件、产业优化升级与布局调整、新城和开发区建设、交通便捷程度、公共服务水平和设施配套、工作选择、居住空间选择、城市空间发展政策与城市规划等方面阐释了南京人口格局演变的机理,并通过回归模型加以实证     

长江三角洲地区人口空间演变特征及动力机制

研究区域人口空间演变,可揭示区域人口空间分布的规律性,对于制定合理的人口发展政策,促进区域的可持续发展,均具有重要意义。根据1982、1990、2000年人口普查资料,结合长江三角洲地区各市历年统计年鉴,先对本地区的人口分布空间格局进行了分析,得出各地市人口数量差异巨大、人口密度北高南低、沿交通轴线人口集中分布的特点,然后对20世纪80年代以来人口分布的动态变化特征、规律做了较细致探讨,得出各地区人口增幅存在较大差异、人口密度增长总体放缓、人口分布先集中后分散、人口重心由东北向西南移动等演变特征。并结合影响区域人口空间分布的外部因子进行解释,认为经济因素、城市地位与功能、政策因素以及信息交通等因素是造成本区人口空间结构发生巨大变化的原因。     

矿产资源人口承载力研究

本文建立了矿产资源人口承载力分析的指标体系与计算模型,并对现有资源和预测资源的人口承载力进行了定量计算和分析;确定了２０００年、２０１０年的矿产资源人口承载数量。     

The distance between state and rural society in the PRC. Reading document no 1 (February 2004)

While the People's Republic of China appears on a daily basis in all of the important newspapers around the world with its enormous successes in modernizing its economy, life in the Chinese countryside usually does not attract international attention. However, we know from a wide range of reports that the situation in the Chinese countryside is getting more and more complicated with local corruption, pollution and poverty growing in most parts of the country. The Chinese language press reports on a growing number of local uprisings in remote areas. While some analysts regard the situation in the countryside as a potential threat to the ongoing peaceful process of economic reform in China, China seems to be well prepared to cope with this change and the state is comparatively flexible in dealing with unrest among the rural population. So far the system itself has not been challenged by peasant discontent. This article introduces the idea that the distance between state and rural society is the basis of this flexibility. It will analyze a major policy document issued by the state and party leadership in order to show how state and rural society interact on the basis of a still insurmountable distance between state and rural society.     

Learning-by-catching: uncertain invasive-species populations and the value of information

This paper develops a model of invasive species control when the species’ population size is unknown. In the face of an uncertain population size, a resource manager's species-control efforts provide two potential benefits: (1) a direct benefit of possibly reducing the population of invasive species, and (2) an indirect benefit of information acquisition (due to learning about the population size, which reduces uncertainty). We provide a methodology that takes into account both of these benefits, and show how optimal management decisions are altered in the presence of the indirect benefit of learning. We then apply this methodology to the case of controlling the Brown Treesnake (Boiga irregularis) on the island of Saipan. We find that the indirect benefit—the value of information to reduce uncertainty—is likely to be quite large.     

基于经济和环境资源多目标的适度人口容量预测——以上海市闵行区为例

人口容量预测成为城市规划的重要依据和重要内容。本文将基于经济和资源环境这一多目标体系,通过经济增长与就业率间的一般规律对关乎人口经济生存的就业岗位预测,以及对基于满足区域环境生态效应的绿地、水面积限制因子的估算,给出城市适度人口的新算法。以上海市闵行区为例,计算结果表明：闵行区2020年经济人口容量介于210万与250万之间,而基于满足生态效应的土地资源的环境人口容量在180万到230万之间。基于经济与环境资源的综合适度人口容量范围为196～232万。     

四川盆地农业生态系统害鼠种群测报数学模型的研究

根据四川盆地农业生态系统害鼠种群数量连续3年的统计结果：方差分析证明种群数量在年周期间变化不显著,（F＜F0．05）而年内存在着显著的统计学差异（F＞F0．05）种群数量季节消长呈明显的双峰型模式,年周期内出现6月和11月两个数量高峰,两峰之间无显著性差异（t＜t0．01）．依据农田灭鼠的实际情况,用3月份的数量来预测6月份的种群数量,是理想的预测方案故本文依据该3年的数据,采用数学拟合方法,组建预测6月份数量高峰的短期预测模型．统计检验表明具有准确、可靠和实用的特点．     

Nonparametric spatial covariance functions: Estimation and testing

Spatial autocorrelation techniques are commonly used to describe genetic and ecological patterns. To improve statistical inference about spatial covariance, we propose a continuous nonparametric estimator of the covariance function in place of the spatial correlogram. The spline correlogram is an adaptation of a recent development in spatial statistics and is a generalization of the commonly used correlogram. We propose a bootstrap algorithm to erect a confidence envelope around the entire covariance function. The meaning of this envelope is discussed. Not all functions that can be drawn inside the envelope are candidate covariance functions, as they may not be positive semidefinite. However, covariance functions that do not fit, are not supported by the data. A direct estimate of the L₀ spatial correlation length with associated confidence interval is offered and its interpretation is discussed. The spline correlogram is found to have high precision when applied to synthetic data. For illustration, the method is applied to electrophoretic data of an alpine grass (Poa alpina).     

Rapid Assessment of Population Size by Area Sampling in Disaster Situations

In the initial phase of a complex emergency, an immediate population size assessment method, based on area sampling, is vital to provide relief workers with a rapid population estimate in refugee camps. In the past decade, the method has been progressively improved; six examples are presented in this paper and questions raised about its statistical validity as well as important issues for further research. There are two stages. The first is to map the camp by registering all of its co-ordinates. In the second stage, the total camp population is estimated by counting the population living in a limited number of square blocks of known surface area, and by extrapolating average population calculated per block to the total camp surface. In six camps selected in Asia and Africa, between 1992 and 1994, population figures were estimated within one to two days. After measuring all external limits, surfaces were calculated and ranged between 121,300 and 2,770,000 square metres. In five camps, the mean average population per square was obtained using blocks 25 by 25 meters (625 m2), and for another camp with blocks 100 by 100 m2. In three camps, different population density zones were defined. Total camp populations obtained were 16,800 to 113,600. Although this method is a valuable public health tool in emergency situations, it has several limitations. Issues related to population density and number and size of blocks to be selected require further research for the method to be better validated.