非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件成因分析

通过对燃煤量的调查结果和呼和浩特CO浓度值监测结果分析了CO排放源的分布特征和CO浓度的变化特征,得出高燃煤地区和采暖期CO浓度值较高但低于标准值。对CO中毒事件案例与气象条件关系进行了分析得出逆温、高湿、小风和低气压时不利于一氧化碳浓度扩散,容易引起一氧化碳中毒事件的发生。     

基于GIS的海洋底栖生物栖息密度空间插值方法

在地理信息系统即GIS的支持下,分别采用反距离加权(inverse distance weighted,IDW)、普通克里格(ordinary krig-ing,OK)、规则样条(regularize spline,RS)和张力样条(tension spline,TS)4种插值方法对2006年7月获得的大连湾底栖生物栖息密度的数据进行空间插值处理,并对插值结果的精确度进行交叉验证,分析和比较不同插值方法获得的分布图。结果表明,插值精确度普通克里格>反距离加权>张力样条>规则样条;4种方法均能较客观的模拟出底栖生物栖息密度的分布趋势,但是在整体趋势和局部趋势两方面的综合考虑下,普通克里格的表现效果更好。文章进一步指出,在确定站位数量及分布前提下,插值结果的精确度可以通过选择空间插值方法得以改善,但其根本还是取决于站位布置的数量和其分布合理性。     

Population dynamics and regulation in the cave salamander <Emphasis Type="Italic">Speleomantes strinatii</Emphasis>

Time series analysis has been used to evaluate the mechanisms regulating population dynamics of mammals and insects, but has been rarely applied to amphibian populations. In this study, the influence of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous (density-independent) factors regulating population dynamics of the terrestrial plethodontid salamander Speleomantes strinatii was analysed by means of time series and multiple regression analyses. During the period 1993–2005, S. strinatii population abundance, estimated by a standardised temporary removal method, displayed relatively low fluctuations, and the autocorrelation function (ACF) analysis showed that the time series had a noncyclic structure. The partial rate correlation function (PRCF) indicated that a strong first-order negative feedback dominated the endogenous dynamics. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that the only climatic factor influencing population growth rate was the minimum winter temperature. Thus, at least during the study period, endogenous, density-dependent negative feedback was the main factor affecting the growth rate of the salamander population, whereas stochastic environmental variables, such as temperature and rainfall, seemed to play a minor role in regulation. These results stress the importance of considering both exogenous and endogenous factors when analysing amphibian long-term population dynamics.     

Body mass estimations for <Emphasis Type="Italic">Plateosaurus engelhardti</Emphasis> using laser scanning and 3D reconstruction methods

Both body mass and surface area are factors determining the essence of any living organism. This should also hold true for an extinct organism such as a dinosaur. The present report discusses the use of a new 3D laser scanner method to establish body masses and surface areas of an Asian elephant (Zoological Museum of Copenhagen, Denmark) and of Plateosaurus engelhardti, a prosauropod from the Upper Triassic, exhibited at the Paleontological Museum in Tübingen (Germany). This method was used to study the effect that slight changes in body shape had on body mass for P. engelhardti. It was established that body volumes varied between 0.79 m³ (slim version) and 1.14 m³ (robust version), resulting in a presumable body mass of 630 and 912 kg, respectively. The total body surface areas ranged between 8.8 and 10.2 m², of which, in both reconstructions of P. engelhardti, ∼33% account for the thorax area alone. The main difference between the two models is in the tail and hind limb reconstruction. The tail of the slim version has a surface area of 1.98 m², whereas that of the robust version has a surface area of 2.73 m². The body volumes calculated for the slim version were as follows: head 0.006 m³, neck 0.016 m³, fore limbs 0.020 m³, hind limbs 0.08 m³, thoracic cavity 0.533 m³, and tail 0.136 m³. For the robust model, the following volumes were established: 0.01 m³ head, neck 0.026 m³, fore limbs 0.025 m³, hind limbs 0.18 m³, thoracic cavity 0.616 m³, and finally, tail 0.28 m³. Based on these body volumes, scaling equations were used to assess the size that the organs of this extinct dinosaur have.     

人群密度对人群拥挤事故的影响

为了研究公共场所的人群密度与拥挤事故的发生概率.基于连续人群流动模型,从人群密度角度探讨了人群拥挤事故发生的机理.由于不同民族个体生理尺寸的差异,人群最大忍受密度不同,以此作为判断人群拥挤事故的标准,并结合我国情况提出我国人群最大忍受密度为9人/m2.最后模拟了某个拥挤事故场景,用该模型对其进行拥挤事故分析.结果表明,连续人群流动模型可以用于预测拥挤事故的发生,对预防和控制人群拥挤事故具有一定的指导意义.     

基于卫星遥感与地面监测分析北京大气NO_2污染特征

分析了1999—2010年北京大气NO2地面质量浓度、2004年以来北京及周边NO2柱浓度的变化.结果表明：1999—2007年来北京大气NO2质量浓度以升高为主.2008年实施奥运空气质量保障措施极大地缓解了北京NO2污染状况,地面质量浓度与垂直柱浓度都出现不同程度的回落.2009年北京大气NO2污染又有所反弹,但低...     

以预处理剩余污泥为燃料MFC产电性能及不连续供电的可行性

为探讨微生物燃料电池(microbial fuel cell,MFC)处理经预处理后剩余污泥的可行性以及不连续供电能力,采用双室MFC,以剩余污泥热处理上清液为基质进行启动和运行,通过改变电池阴极电子受体而导致电势差变化来监测其产电的运行稳定性.结果表明,反应器以氧气作为阴极电子受体148 h后启动成功,最大输出电压0.24 V,将阴极电子受体换为铁氰化钾时,能获得0.66 V的最大输出电压和4.21 W·m~(-3)的最大功率密度.当将阴极电子受体分别替换为氧气或者开路,又转换为铁氰化钾后,电池输出功率恢复迅速,电池对有机物去除效率基本不受影响,对化学需氧量(COD)、氨氮去除效率分别达70%和80%.本研究表明,利用预处理剩余污泥进行MFC处理和产电是可行的,可获得较高的功率密度,同时MFC可以实现不连续供电.     

Opponents,waverers or supporters: the influence of place-attachment dimensions on local residents' acceptance of a planned biosphere reserve in Austria

A supportive attitude of residents towards protected areas is crucial for successful implementation and management, particularly in densely populated regions such as Central Europe. While previous studies have revealed that emotional and cultural drivers, as well as information level and group membership, can influence attitudes towards protected areas, the effect of place-attachment dimensions remains unclear. A postal survey among local residents (N = 460) explored factors influencing attitudes towards the Lungau (-Nockberge) Biosphere Reserve in Austria before its official recognition. Results indicated societal support throughout all socio-demographic strata. A logistic regression showed that, besides socio-demographics and information level, place attachment had a significant influence on the acceptance of the biosphere reserve. Supporters and opponents showed both high place identity and dependence, while waverers scored low on these dimensions. Results indicate that place attachment is relevant for the design of participatory processes as well as for developing management policies for biosphere reserves.     

Water Management Decision Making in the Face of Multiple Forms of Uncertainty and Risk

In the Wasatch Range Metropolitan Area of Northern Utah, water management decision makers confront multiple forms of uncertainty and risk. Adapting to these uncertainties and risks is critical for maintaining the long‐term sustainability of the region's water supply. This study draws on interview data to assess the major challenges climatic and social changes pose to Utah's water future, as well as potential solutions. The study identifies the water management adaptation decision‐making space shaped by the interacting institutional, social, economic, political, and biophysical processes that enable and constrain sustainable water management. The study finds water managers and other water actors see challenges related to reallocating water, including equitable water transfers and stakeholder cooperation, addressing population growth, and locating additional water supplies, as more problematic than the challenges posed by climate change. Furthermore, there is significant disagreement between water actors over how to best adapt to both climatic and social changes. This study concludes with a discussion of the path dependencies that present challenges to adaptive water management decision making, as well as opportunities for the pursuit of a new water management paradigm based on soft‐path solutions. Such knowledge is useful for understanding the institutional and social adaptations needed for water management to successfully address future uncertainties and risks.     

城镇化与工业化对能源强度影响的实证研究——基于截面相关和异质性回归系数的非平衡面板数据模型

城镇化、工业化对中国能源强度的影响如何?如何在快速推进城镇化、工业化进程的同时确保节能减排目标的实现?论文以能源强度指标代替传统的能源消费指标来反映能源综合利用效率,并应用考虑截面相关性和异质性回归系数的非平衡面板数据模型,使用共同相关效应组均值(CCEMG)估计方法对中国1978-2014年城镇化、工业化与能源强度之间的关系进行分析。研究结果表明:人均实际GDP增长1%,能源强度将会降低0.412%,工业化水平增长1%,能源强度将会上升0.630%,而由于生产消费等经济活动的增加、高度集中化以及规模经济的综合作用,使得城镇化对能源强度的影响并不确定。联系研究结论,本文提出政策建议:我国应加快产业结构升级,转变经济增长方式;构建绿色制造体系,推进"五化"协同发展;推进绿色、循环、低碳发展的新型城镇化建设,提高城镇化质量,提升我国整体的能源效率,确保节能减排目标的实现,推动经济全面、协调、可持续发展。