Are non‐poor households always less vulnerable? The case of households exposed to protracted civil war in Southern Sudan

Civil wars in Africa are now the leading contributory cause of vulnerability of rural communities. Understanding vulnerability during civil war is critical for humanitarian response and post-conflict rehabilitation planning. The lack of understanding of vulnerability has led existing studies to make sweeping generalizations, either by equating the dynamics of vulnerability during civil wars with vulnerability in other risk events, or by projecting people in the 'war zones' as unable to cope and subsequently becoming vulnerable. This paper is an attempt to gain a more nuanced understanding of the dynamics of vulnerability during protracted civil war. It shows that during civil war the non-poor are not necessarily less vulnerable than poor households. The idea that people caught up in civil war are all vulnerable is not supported by the findings of this paper. It shows that the 'standard' pattern of vulnerability to drought is similar to that during exogenous counter-insurgency warfare, while a different pattern of vulnerability to endogenous shocks is identified.     

Soil Conservation and Consumption Risk in a Model of Low-Income Agriculture

This paper investigates the influence of consumptionrisk on incentives for soil conservation. A dynamicmodel is developed to show how investments in soilconservation affect consumption risk on small farmsand how these risks influence incentives for soilconservation. Model predictions are compared withobserved patterns of soil conservation adoption in thePhilippines. Results show that on small farms the riskof consumption shortfall generates inefficientpatterns of soil conservation adoption. Observedadoption patterns reflect risk characteristics of thesoil conservation method, differences in risk exposureamong farms, and differences in farm size.     

Application of a DPSIR Modeling Framework to Assess Spatial–Temporal Differences of Water Poverty in China

Water shortage is a common problem around the world, especially in developing countries. Water shortage is closely linked to natural and social conditions, but the linkages between these natural and social conditions and their underlying temporal and spatial variation are less well explored. This paper details an application of the Driving‐Force‐Pressure‐State‐Impact‐Response (DPSIR) model, a holistic and sustainable tool for resources planning and management, and uses comprehensive weights to evaluate the water poverty (wp) in China from 1997 to 2014. This study applies the Kernel density estimation model to analyze the temporal variation trend and uses the least square error model to analyze the spatial pattern of wp. The results show the level of wp is gradually declining over time and the improvements in the coastal and inland wp situation are not spatially harmonious, and there are four primary types of wp in China based on drivers and causal mechanisms: D‐P‐I, D‐P‐I‐R, D‐P‐S‐I, and D‐P‐S‐I‐R. Furthermore, we analyze the main causes of spatial difference of wp and put forward corresponding countermeasures. The research findings are intended to provide a new insight for the evaluation of wp in the context of sustainable development, breaking past limitations that arise in simplified analyses using a single method, and to provide a strategy for regional water resources management to relieve wp.     

农村人口动态多维贫困:状态持续与转变

能力贫困、动态贫困、多维贫困更符合贫困的本质和走向,本文利用2010年和2012年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)农村平衡面板数据,运用Biprobit模型基于个人层面可行能力和主观福利感受分析农村人口多维贫困状态持续与转变。结果表明:农村人口年龄、从事农业活动时间、区域差异、受教育程度、绝对收入、社会地位及相对收入等均对农村人口持续多维贫困产生显著影响。受教育程度、从事农业活动时间、区域差异、年龄、相对收入、户籍和绝对收入均对农村人口陷入多维贫困产生显著影响。农村人口从事农业活动的时间越长,持续多维贫困的可能性越高,陷入多维贫困的可能性越低。东部、中部、西部发生持续性多维贫困的可能较高,而东部、西部陷入多维贫困的可能性较低。绝对收入、相对收入和社会地位越高,农村人口发生持续性多维贫困的可能性越低。女性、受教育程度较低的农村人口持续性多维贫困的可能性更高。相对收入较低的农村人口易于陷入多维贫困,然而相对收入对农村人口持续性多维贫困的作用不明显。社会地位对农村人口持续性多维贫困产生消极作用,却对陷入多维贫困的影响不显著。主要研究结论:打破"持续多维贫困"恶性循环应从"小处"着手,以"输血"为主,"走进去"识贫,"走出来"脱贫;防范农村人口陷入多维贫困应从"大局"着眼,把发展和消除不平等作为解决多维贫困的根本途径,引导"脱贫"和防范"返贫",提能力避返贫,新思路促扶贫。精准扶贫机制要建立在契合贫困本质的贫困标准上,找准"贫根",寻共性扶贫,诊特性脱贫。     

中国西南喀斯特地区人口、资源、环境与可持续发展

中国西南喀斯特地区人口－资源－环境的矛盾非常突出,贫困与生态恶化的双重压力严重制约区域可持续发展。西部大开发战略为西南喀斯特地区的持续发展和反贫困提供了前所未有的机遇。喀斯特地区可持续发展的首要任务是更新观念,以生态环境重建为切入点,加强基础设施建设,实施科教兴国战略,控制人口数量、提高人口素质;调整产业结构,加大扶贫开发力度,把宏观调控与市场机制相结合,实现跨越式发展。     

农业文化遗产保护目标下农户生计状况分析

农户生计是农业文化遗产认定标准之一,也是影响农业文化遗产保护与传承的关键因素,在贫困地区,遗产保护与农户脱贫的两难困境更为突出。本研究基于可持续生计理论和分析框架,以全球重要农业文化遗产地——云南红河哈尼稻作梯田为案例区域,通过生计资本指标体系构建和量化,对比分析了不同生计途径农户的生计状况。评估结果发现,农户的生计资本均值为2.312,生计资本处于匮乏状态,金融资本值最低,而文化资本值最高。从事农业和打工是当前农户的主要生计途径,旅游接待成为生计拓展的重要形式。三类农户生计资本值和家庭年均收入排序相同,都表现为旅游接待户打工兼业户纯农业户,纯农业户的生计状况最差。从单项生计资本看,旅游接待户和打工兼业户的人力资本显著高于纯农业户,物质资本和金融资本比较中,旅游接待户显著高于其他两类农户,说明人力资本越丰富的农户越可能倾向于兼业,农户开展旅游接待需要较高的物质和金融资本作为基础。这意味着,农业文化遗产保护要大力提高农户的农业经营收益,延长农业的价值链和产业链,完善农村金融市场,开展旅游接待培训,从人力、金融等多方面改善农户生计资本状况,实现生计途径拓展。     

Perceptions of disorder: Contributions of neighborhood characteristics to subjective perceptions of disorder

Theoretical explanations and empirical evidence of how disorder is perceived and its relation to independently observed measures of disorder are rare. In recent work, Sampson and Raudenbush [2004. Seeing disorder: Neighborhood stigma and the social construction of “Broken Windows”. Social Psychology Quarterly, 67(4), 319–342] investigated how individuals form perceptions of disorder and found that perceptions of disorder in Chicago neighborhoods are shaped not only by observable conditions of disorder, but also by neighborhoods’ racial and socioeconomic composition. In this paper, we investigate the bases for perceiving disorder with data from Baltimore using a methodology similar to that used by Sampson and Raudenbush (2004). Using surveys, systematic social observations, census data, and police records to investigate variations in individual perceptions of disorder at the individual and neighborhood levels, this study, consistent with the literature, finds that visual cues of disorder are not unambiguous and that perceptions of disorder are based not only on neighborhood observed disorder but also on individual characteristics of residents and neighborhood social structure. Additionally, our findings indicate that neighborhood poverty and not neighborhood racial composition affects perceptions of disorder in Baltimore. The fact that these findings are in contrast to the findings in Chicago suggests that the influence of racial segregation on perception of disorder is imbedded in the larger historical context.     

更新观念转换机制开创防震减灾工作新局面

本文介绍了海淀区地震办公室几年来在防震减灾工作中,更新观念,转换机制,开创防震减灾工作新局面所做的工作,在防灾减灾科普教育基地,举办"北京海淀首届城市防震减灾(国际)论坛",建设海淀公共安全馆,建设避难场所、志愿者队伍和社会力量动员等方面取得的显著成绩.对于各地区地震办公室的工作开展,有-定的学习和借鉴意义.     

基于水贫乏指数的长江流域水资源安全评价

针对长江流域水资源安全问题,选取水贫乏指数作为评估水资源安全的指标。综合考虑影响水资源安全的关键因素,选取了水资源状况、供水设施状况、利用能力、利用效率和水环境5个子系统共22个分指标,建立了水资源安全评价指标体系。采用改进的水贫乏指数计算方法,对长江流域各省级行政区的水资源安全现状进行了评估,并简要分析了导致水资源安全状况恶化的原因。研究结果表明,水贫乏指数能够较好的反映水资源安全所涉及到的社会、经济、资源、环境等诸多方面的状况,为水资源安全评估提供了有益借鉴。