民航事故征候的灰色马尔可夫预测

民航事故征候的分析和预测是民航安全研究的重要内容.掌握民航事故征候的发展状况并据此提出相应的安全措施,可减少民航事故的发生.在民航事故征候灰色预测基础上,引入马尔可夫链(Markov Chains)预测理论,建立事故征候的灰色马尔可夫预测模型.该模型具有灰色预测和马尔可夫链预测的优点,不仅提高了对波动性较大的随机变量的预测精度,同时还拓宽了灰色预测的应用范围.对某一航空公司过载大事件的灰色马尔可夫预测和检验分析表明,事故征候的灰色马尔可夫预测模型精度高于GM(1,1)模型预测精度.研究表明,灰色马尔可夫预测模型可用于民航事故征候的预测.     

干湿球法湿度测量精度算法研究

根据干湿球方程和误差传递原理提出了干湿球法相对湿度测量精度的计算方法,能够利用干湿球温度及精度准确地计算出相对湿度的精度,并给出了计算实例。该方法还能够推广到其他相对湿度精度计算工作中。     

“甲基橙分光光度法测下水道中氯气含量”的标准化验证研究

详细阐述了在制定行业标准《城镇排水设施气体的检测方法》（cJ／T307—2009）子项“甲基橙分光光度法测下水道中氯气含量”时,检测数据的标准化验证过程。通过统计分析基础检测数据。确定了方法检出限为0．025lrJIg／L,测定下限为0．10mg／L,测定上限为1．00nqmg／L。样品浓度为0．300mg／L时,重复性相对标准偏差1．5％,再现性相对标准偏差1．7％,相对误差0．51％±1．94％。浓度水平0．700mg／L时,重复性相对标准偏差0．70％,再现性相对标准偏差0．81％,相对误差-O．03％±0．96％,实测样品加标回收率95．2％～105％。各项技术指标满足预期目标,甲基橙分光光度法测定下水道中氯气含量可行。     

保温层下管道腐蚀监测系统及应用研究

为预防保温层下管道腐蚀带来的严重问题,必须采取有效措施进行腐蚀在线监测,以了解管道的剩余壁厚情况。在分析现有的腐蚀监测技术不足的前提下,基于γ射线数字扫描检测技术（GSDT）,研发了1套保温层下管道腐蚀在线监测系统,该系统可以实现对保温层下腐蚀管道剩余壁厚在线监测,并通过带保温层管道的检测试验和t-分布分析方法检验腐蚀监测系统的检测精度,最后以某化工企业为例,验证了该系统的有效性。结果表明:腐蚀监测系统可以实现对保温层管道剩余壁厚的监测,保温层和高密度介质不影响管壁厚度的测量结果,且使用所研发的腐蚀监测系统监测到的管道腐蚀速率与现场实际腐蚀速率基本一致。     

基于北斗高精度定位的工务现场作业全过程安全监测系统研究

为了保障在铁路快速发展的同时,确保铁路工务安全和行车安全,基于工务现场作业过程的控制,提出了利用北斗高精度差分定位、大数据等技术,研究建立针对现场每个作业个体的工务作业全过程安全监测系统。结果表明:通过对现场每名作业个体的高精度、智能化管理,有效规范了现场人员的作业行为,增强对现场安全风险和隐患的预判和规避能力,保障了铁路从业人员人身安全。     

评价金属精密冲裁适应性的新方法

简要分析了金属板材冲裁时应力状态对变形过程的影响 ,介绍了一种用拉伸、扭转、压缩变形评价金属材料精密冲裁适应性的新方法。它一改传统的以断面光亮带相对高度来评判的方法 ,利用材料在达到破坏之前所允许的变形总量来评价其对精密冲裁工艺的适应性。与传统方法相比 ,其具有不必制备试验模具等优点 ,迅速便捷 ,可靠性高     

Ranked set sampling: an annotated bibliography

The paper provides an up-to-date annotated bibliography of the literature on ranked set sampling. The bibliography includes all pertinent papers known to the authors, and is intended to cover applications as well as theoretical developments. The annotations are arranged in chronological order and are intended to be sufficiently complete and detailed that a reading from beginning to end would provide a statistically mature reader with a state-of-the-art survey of ranked set sampling, including historical development, current status, and future research directions and applications. A final section of the paper gives a listing of all annotated papers, arranged in alphabetical order by author.This paper was prepared with partial support from the United States Environmental Protection Agency under a Cooperative Agreement Number CR-821531. The contents have not been subject to Agency review and therefore do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

圆柱齿轮冷锻成形技术探讨

探讨了几种圆柱齿轮冷锻成形技术 ,对圆柱齿轮冷锻特性进行了分析 ,并运用系统的观点对提高冷锻圆柱齿轮的轮齿精度做了探讨     

TOTAL SOLUTES LOADS AND GEOCHEMICAL YIELDS IN THE SASKATCHEWAN RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: River solute loads have seldom been measured in very large, complex drainage basins, nor have the methods of calculating loads been critically examined. For sites in the Saskatchewan River Basin, Canada, rating curves were poor predictors of solute loads because correlations between discharge and total solutes concentration were weak (R² < 0.05 in most cases) and suffered from hysteresis. In contrast, the interval method produced reliable estimates in all seasons and sites tested, and was little affected by sampling schedule. The limit of precision (SE) for estimates of mean annual or seasonal solute load was 10–15 percent of the mean (5 percent in very small basins), reached with 10 years or more of data. Two-thirds or more of total annual solute load was transported during the open-water season, but the proportion carried during winter increased from 8 percent to 34 percent from the upstream to the downstream end of the basin, due to reservoirs retaining and mixing water. Annual loads of total solutes varied from 6.2 × 10⁴ tonnes in foothills tributaries to almost 4.0 × 10⁶ tonnes in the Saskatchewan River near the mouth. But, on an areal basis, the mountain and foothills region was the dominant solute source, producing 43–97 tonnes/km²/yr, compared with only 3–22 tonnes/km²/yr for prairie rivers. This difference is a consequence of greater rainfall and, hence, more rapid erosion in the mountains.     

A Comparison of DEM‐Based Indexes for Targeting the Placement of Vegetative Buffers in Agricultural Watersheds

Targeted placement of vegetative buffers may increase their effectiveness for improving water quality in agricultural watersheds. The use of digital elevation models (DEMs) enables precise mapping of runoff pathways for identifying where greater runoff loads can be intercepted and treated with buffers. Five different DEM‐based targeting indexes were compared and contrasted for the degree to which they identify similar locations in watersheds: Flow Accumulation [S.K. Jenson and J.O. Domingue (1988). Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 54:1593], Wetness Index [I.D. Moore, R.B. Grayson, and A.R. Ladson (1991). Hydrological Processes 5:3], Topographic Index [M.T. Walter, T.S. Steenhuis, V.K. Mehta, D. Thongs, M. Zion, and E. Schneiderman (2002). Hydrological Processes 16:2041], and the Water Inflow and Sediment Retention Indexes [M.G. Dosskey, Z. Qiu, M.J. Helmers, and D.E. Eisenhauer (2011b). Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 66:362]. The indexes were applied in two different watersheds, one in New Jersey and one in Missouri. Results showed that they all tend to target similar locations in both watersheds which traces to the importance of larger contributing area to the rankings by each index. Disagreement among indexes traces to other variables which enable more accurate targeting under particular hydrologic circumstances. Effective use of these indexes poses special challenges, including selecting an index that better describes the hydrologic circumstances in a watershed and is simple enough to use, ensuring the accuracy of the DEM, and determining a maximum index value for the appropriateness of vegetative buffers. When properly applied, each index can provide a standardized basis and effective spatial resolution for targeting buffer placement in watersheds.