A TAU-LIKE TEST FOR TREND IN THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE CENSORING POINTS1

ABSTRACT: A common problem arises in testing for trends in water quality when observations are reported as “less than detection limit.” If a single detection limit is used for the entire study, existing non-parametric statistical methods, modified for ties, are applicable. If, however, the detection limit varies during the course of the study, resulting in multiple detection limits, then the commonly used trend detection methods are not appropriate. A statistic similar to Kendall's tau, but based on expected ranks, is proposed. Monte Carlo simulations show that the normal approximation to the distribution of this statistic is quite good, even for small samples and a large proportion of censored observations. The statistic is also shown to have greater power than the ad-hoc method of treating all observations less than the target censored observation as tied.     

玉.玉文化.旅游

开发旅游新产品，是促进我国旅游业不断迈上新台阶需要研究解决的问题之一。本文通过作者实施踏勘和检索有关文献，阐述了玉的种类及其主要产地的状况，并揭示它新蕴涵的文化内容。     

THE OPTIMAL TIME TO START THE OPERATION OF A DESALTING PLANT IN ISRAEL1

The study contains the methodology of finding the optimal time to start the operation of a desalting plant or any other non conventional source of water for agricultural use in Israel. The essence of the methodology is the moving equilibrium price and quantity of agricultural products. The market of agricultural products is represented by a single demand curve and a supply curve which is derived from the agricultural sector production function. Both the demand for and the supply of agricultural products functions are shifting over time. The marginal value product of water is the critical value that determines the optimal time of a desalting plant. The study is static in the sense that dynamic aspects per se are not dealt with-e.g. learning by doing of building and operating desalting plants. The empirical results although used for illustrative purposes can be used as reference points for other detailed and more ‘exact’ studies on water desalination.     

热爆炸理论在粉尘爆炸机理研究中的应用

笔者对粉尘爆炸的几种机理进行了简要分析 ,认为粉尘爆炸是由热爆炸引起的。在对粉尘燃烧过程作了较为合理的假设后 ,将热爆炸理论中均温系统的热爆炸判据 ,应用于粉尘爆炸中 ,得出了爆炸下限与粉尘粒径呈线性关系的结论 ,且与实验符合 ,并推导出粉尘的热爆炸判据。结果表明 :用热爆炸理论来解释粉尘爆炸机理是可行的。     

池州市旅游产品开发探讨

从旅游资源、交通区位、旅游产业基础3个方面分析了池州旅游产品开发条件，指出了池州旅游产品开发存在着旅游产品结构单一、文化内涵挖掘不够、市场营销乏力、旅游产品空间布局不合理等问题，构建了两大品牌、八大系列、六条特色旅游线路的多层次旅游产品体系，最后提出了池州旅游产品开发的思路：规划先行，优化布局；科学定位，错位开发；区域联动，借力开发。     

轴心受压钢筋混凝土柱等效火灾荷载的计算

迄今为止，国内外有关计算构件耐火极限的方法，是钢筋混凝土构件与防火研究的主要内容。而在结构设计中，由于直接考虑的是荷载作用，为此提出了一个新概念——等效火灾荷载，将火灾对结构的影响直接考虑成荷载作用。在确定了混凝土柱的截面温度场后，利用一种简化计算方法计算出钢筋混凝土柱的等效火灾荷载，进而计算出钢筋混凝土柱的耐火极限。在火灾中，作为结构最基本的构件柱可能受到单面或多面的火作用，这里仅介绍轴心受压钢筋混凝土柱等效火灾荷载的计算。     

可持续发展实验区灾害风险定量估算方法研究

作者将探索性数据分析方法引入区域灾害风险的定量估算，系统地建立了区域灾害风险的定量估算方法。计算实例表明，文中给出的方法可便捷地用于可持续发展实验区灾害风险评估。     

世界旅游精品建设目标下的张家界旅游环境管理对策研究

建设世界旅游精品是张家界制定的旅游业发展的战略目标，一流的旅游环境条件是实现这一目标的必备条件。然而，张家界目前的旅游环境与世界旅游精品存在差距，环境管理中存在基础性工作、基础性研究比较薄弱、制度不够健全等方面的问题，影响了环境管理效率。在分析研究张家界环境管理中存在问题的基础上，针对性地提出保护、改善环境的对策，是实现世界旅游精品战略目标的基础工作。     

Estimating Watershed Level Nonagricultural Pesticide Use From Golf Courses Using Geospatial Methods1

Abstract: Limited information exists on pesticide use for nonagricultural purposes, making it difficult to estimate pesticide loadings from nonagricultural sources to surface water and to conduct environmental risk assessments. A method was developed to estimate the amount of pesticide use on recreational turf grasses, specifically golf course turf grasses, for watersheds located throughout the conterminous United States (U.S.). The approach estimates pesticide use: (1) based on the area of recreational turf grasses (used as a surrogate for turf associated with golf courses) within the watershed, which was derived from maps of land cover, and (2) from data on the location and average treatable area of golf courses. The area of golf course turf grasses determined from these two methods was used to calculate the percentage of each watershed planted in golf course turf grass (percent crop area, or PCA). Turf‐grass PCAs derived from the two methods were used with recommended application rates provided on pesticide labels to estimate total pesticide use on recreational turf within 1,606 watersheds associated with surface‐water sources of drinking water. These pesticide use estimates made from label rates and PCAs were compared to use estimates from industry sales data on the amount of each pesticide sold for use within the watershed. The PCAs derived from the land‐cover data had an average value of 0.4% of a watershed with minimum of 0.01% and a maximum of 9.8%, whereas the PCA values that are based on the number of golf courses in a watershed had an average of 0.3% of a watershed with a minimum of <0.01% and a maximum of 14.2%. Both the land‐cover method and the number of golf courses method produced similar PCA distributions, suggesting that either technique may be used to provide a PCA estimate for recreational turf. The average and maximum PCAs generally correlated to watershed size, with the highest PCAs estimated for small watersheds. Using watershed specific PCAs, combined with label rates, resulted in greater than two orders of magnitude over‐estimation of the pesticide use compared to estimates from sales data.