Short-term Model of the Production of Construction Aggregates in Taiwan Based on Artificial Neural Networks

BACKGROUND: Taiwan's geography and limited stock of sandstone have caused sandstone resources to gradually decline to the point of exhaustion after long-term excavation. Moreover, the Taiwanese government has continuously increased the amount of land area near rivers that cannot be excavated to facilitate riverbed remediation and promote conservation of water resources. Accordingly, predicting and managing the annual production of construction aggregates in future construction projects, and dealing appropriately with some thorny problems, for instance, demand that excess supply, excessive excavation, unregulated excavation, and the consequent environmental damage, will significantly affect the efficient use of natural resources in a manner that accords with the national policy of Sustainable Development (SD). METHODS:. This study establishes an empirical model for forecasting the annual production of future construction aggregates using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), based on 15 relevant socio-economic indicators, such as indicator of annual consumption of cement. A sensitivity analysis is then performed on these indicators. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: This work applies ANN to estimate the annual production of construction aggregates; the estimates, the verification of the model and the sensitivity analysis are all acceptable. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis results indicate that the annual consumption of cement is the indicator that most strongly influences the production of construction aggregates, as well as whether construction waste can be recycled and steel structures can be used in buildings, helping to reduce the future production of construction aggregates in Taiwan. CONCLUSIONS: The elaborate prediction methodology presented in this study avoids some of the weaknesses or limitations of conventional linear statistics, linear programming or system dynamics. Additionally, the results not only provide a short-term prediction of the production of construction aggregates in Taiwan, but also provide a viable and flexible means of verifying quality certification of the production data of construction aggregates in the future by incorporating those relevant socio-economic indicators. RECOMMENDATIONS AND OUTLOOK: The continuity and quality of the database of relevant indicators used in this study should be closely scrutinized in order to ensure the SD means of exploiting resources.     

菊花组培快繁技术研究

以菊花嫩茎段为材料,进行无菌系建立、芽分化、生根等试验,探讨菊花组培快繁技术.结果表明:(1)以MS BA2.0 mg.L-1 NAA0.1 mg.L-1(单位下同)为培养基,分别置于普通培养室(不开灯,200~500 lux)与人工气候箱中培养,在前者条件下基本上不诱导芽的形成,25天后有部分黄白色愈伤组织形成;而在人工气候箱中培养则产生丛生芽,每茎段在30 d后可形成8~10个丛生芽.(2)分别以①MS BA1.0 NAA0.1,②MS BA2.0 NAA0.1,③MS BA3.0 NAA0.1为增殖培养基,培养25 d后芽增殖3.65~5.90倍.(3)在a.1/2MS NAA0.2;b.1/2MS IAA0.2;c.1/2MS IBA0.2共三个培养基中进行生根培养,生根率均达100%,但前两个培养基中长出的根系细长、数量少,而后一个培养基则根系粗短、数量多.     

中国公众环境意识提高的若干建议

中国公众的环境意识“知”强“行”弱,总体水平较低,主要与几十年来的体制、经济水平和文化素质有关。应增强环境宣传力度和深度,在学校中普设环境教育课,提高公众的环境法律意识和环境道德意识,宣传绿色文化,从而提高公众的环境意识。     

基于PCA-BP神经网络的多股铜导线 熔痕定量金相识别方法研究

为实现火灾现场中多股铜导线熔痕的自动识别,采用主成分分析(PCA)和反向传播(BP)神经网络算法对四种多股铜导线熔痕(一次短路熔痕、二次短路熔痕、过负荷熔痕和火烧熔痕)的金相组织进行了识别研究。利用Image-Pro Plus 6.0和Axio-Imaging软件获取每种熔痕30组17维金相组织参数数据,采用PCA对四种熔痕共120组数据降维,获得前6个主成分得分矩阵,建立具有6个输入层节点,10个隐层节点和4个输出节点的神经网络模式识别模型。随机抽取每种熔痕的20组样品的主成分得分矩阵作为训练集,将每种熔痕的剩余10组主成分得分为测试数据,输入最终训练完成的模型进行识别,其识别准确率达到92.5%。实验结果表明采用PCA+BP神经网络的算法,可以较好地实现多股铜导线熔痕识别,为火灾物证鉴定工作提供了有力的工具。     

基于颗粒流数值方法的岩石压剪破坏细观特征研究

压剪破坏是影响岩体工程安全的主要因素,基于颗粒流程序的伺服控制原理,采用等效晶质模型模拟了粉砂质板岩的压剪破坏过程,通过与室内试验对比验证了其适用性,并从细观角度揭示了岩石在压剪过程中的破坏机理。结果表明:裂纹增长速率与试件压剪过程中经历的弹性、塑性和破坏3个阶段具有相关性;张拉、剪切裂纹呈同步增长趋势,但峰后张拉裂纹增长速率快于剪切裂纹,即试件峰后以张拉破坏为主;随剪切角增大,由沿晶和穿晶断裂向以沿晶断裂为主转变,裂纹数量减小且扩展方向向断裂面集中;穿晶断裂的扩展更容易导致局部失稳,即在宏观上表现为塑性阶段;穿晶裂纹主要沿断裂面扩展、贯通,一定程度上可以抑制断裂面附近较大破裂块体的产生。     

Suppression of flame propagation in a long duct by inertia isolation with inert gases

Experimental studies were done with a small pipe with a diameter of 0.043 m and a large pipe with a diameter of 0.49 m to demonstrate the flame propagation suppression with inertia isolation in a long duct. Tests were carried in an ignition section containing propylene/air mixture near stoichiometric concentration and generating a peak flame propagation speed of approximately 100 m/s. The ignition section is connected to a section filled with an inert gas, another section with flammable mixtures, and finally a sufficiently long, ambient section to accommodate flame propagation. The critical length of the inert gas section required for successful suppression of flame from the igniting the flammable section is found to be 0.6 m for CO₂ and 0.9 m for N₂ in the large pipe and 0.2 m for CO₂ and 0.3 m for N₂ in the small pipe. Additional tests with a 3 m of ignition section and peak flame propagation speed of 225 m/s showed that the critical length for successful suppression by CO₂ is only increased slightly to 0.9 m, confirming that the suppression is a result of inertia isolation rather than inert gas dilution. Finally, application of the results in responding to large-scale leak into a long, underground duct is discussed.     

"青龙奇迹"传播现象分析及其准确度探讨

在地震灾难频发及网络媒体迅速发展的背景下,"青龙奇迹"引起了公众的广泛关注和争议,其社会舆论影响不容忽视.以此为切入点,笔者一行利用2010年暑期社会实践在河北省青龙县、抚宁县进行了实地调研走访,结合学者论述、新闻报道,从灾难社会学和传播学角度,分析"青龙奇迹"传播现象,并对其准确度进行了探讨.     

柱形连通容器内预混气体爆炸过程的火焰传播模拟

为研究连通容器内气体爆炸规律,采用Fluent(经典流体动力学软件)对柱形连通容器内预混气体爆炸过程进行模拟,模拟了不同点火位置和火焰传播方向条件下连通容器内火焰传播过程和压力变化,并分析了连通容器内不同时刻的速度场.结果表明:火焰面在传播过程中并非完全对称,当火焰到达传爆容器后,湍流燃烧剧烈,火焰不规则变形显著;端面点火后在传爆容器内产生的压力峰值和压力波动比中心点火时更大;当起爆容器为大容器时,传爆容器内气体预压缩程度更大,压力峰值更高.     

"鸟巢"演唱会人员疏散CA-BP仿真研究

针对现今大型活动中的人群踩踏事故频发问题,通过对"鸟巢"演唱会进行人流疏散仿真分析,研究紧急情况下人流疏散逃生规律及均衡疏散方法.通过设置人员速度、移动余值、出口逃生条件等因素扩展元胞自动机行人流模型,并借助Matlab语言实现可视化仿真模拟,以探究人流疏散逃生规律;引入疏散系数,并通过建立BP神经网络获取较优疏散系数,均衡各个出口所承担的疏散任务.结果表明,"鸟巢"演唱会在疏散过程中人群对通行出口的选择较为不合理,仿真疏散总时间长达455.5 s,与理想疏散曲线所得疏散总时间270.0s相比,存在40.7％的偏差,为减小此偏差引入出口疏散系数指导人群定向选择出口,通过仿真模拟得到的疏散总时间为312.0 s,减少约31.5％,出口选择不均衡现象被显著缓解.最后提出了针对疏散不平衡问题的相关措施.     

石膏矿采空区顶板冒落冲击气浪传播规律及安全防范研究

为探索石膏矿采空区顶板冒落灾害形成及演化过程中的微观动力学行为,以某危害型石膏矿为研究背景,选择"打气筒"模型进行了空场法采空区顶板冒落相似物理模拟试验,并利用高速摄像及纹影技术,直观地记录分析冲击气浪产生时流场在直线型、转弯型、独头式模型巷道处的传播规律及变化特性.结果表明,在直线型巷道内传播时,冲击气浪并非按直线传递,而是气浪前端阵面会发生回转,与气浪尾部和后续的气浪叠加、交混,一起向前传递.在转弯型巷道中,冲击气浪传播至巷道转弯处时,气浪会马上在此改变传播方向,开始沿着转弯方向,向巷道出口传播.当气浪完全通过此处后,由于巷道围岩和空气的阻力,冲击气浪前端部分气流又会回流至此,进行二次破坏.在独头式巷道中传播时,由于巷道一端封合密闭,气体无法涌出,气浪无法在独头巷道中顺利向前传递,而是与巷道中的气浪相互叠加、碰撞,持续地、无规则地流动.