A critical appraisal of population viability analysis

Population viability analysis (PVA) is useful in management of imperiled species. Applications range from research design, threat assessment, and development of management frameworks. Given the importance of PVAs, it is essential that they be rigorous and adhere to widely accepted guidelines; however, the quality of published PVAs is rarely assessed. We evaluated the quality of 160 PVAs of 144 species of birds and mammals published in peer-reviewed journals from 1990 to 2017. We hypothesized that PVA quality would be lower with generic programs than with custom-built programs; be higher for those developed for imperiled species; change over time; and be higher for those published in journals with high impact factors (IFs). Each included study was evaluated based on answers to an evaluation framework containing 32 questions reflecting whether and to what extent the PVA study adhered to published PVA guidelines or contained important PVA components. All measures of PVA quality were generally lower for studies based on generic programs. Conservation status of the species did not affect any measure of PVA quality, but PVAs published in high IF journals were of higher quality. Quality generally declined over time, suggesting the quantitative literacy of PVA practitioners has not increased over time or that PVAs developed by unskilled users are being published in peer-reviewed journals. Only 18.1% of studies were of high quality (score >75%), which is troubling because poor-quality PVAs could misinform conservation decisions. We call for increased scrutiny of PVAs by journal editors and reviewers. Our evaluation framework can be used for this purpose. Because poor-quality PVAs continue to be published, we recommend caution while using PVA results in conservation decision making without thoroughly assessing the PVA quality.     

Effects of age and sex ratios on offspring recruitment rates in translocated black rhinoceros

Success of animal translocations depends on improving postrelease demographic rates toward establishment and subsequent growth of released populations. Short‐term metrics for evaluating translocation success and its drivers, like postrelease survival and fecundity, are unlikely to represent longer‐term outcomes. We used information theory to investigate 25 years of data on black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) translocations. We used the offspring recruitment rate (ORR) of translocated females—a metric integrating survival, fecundity, and offspring recruitment at sexual maturity—to detect determinants of success. Our unambiguously best model (AICω = 0.986) predicted that ORR increases with female age at release as a function of lower postrelease adult rhinoceros sex ratio (males:females). Delay of first postrelease reproduction and failure of some females to recruit any calves to sexual maturity most influenced the pattern of ORRs, and the leading causes of recruitment failure were postrelease female death (23% of all females) and failure to calve (24% of surviving females). We recommend translocating older females (≥6 years old) because they do not exhibit the reproductive delay and low ORRs of juveniles (<4 years old) or the higher rates of recruitment failure of juveniles and young adults (4–5.9 years old). Where translocation of juveniles is necessary, they should be released into female‐biased populations, where they have higher ORRs. Our study offers the unique advantage of a long‐term analysis across a large number of replicate populations—a science‐by‐management experiment as a proxy for a manipulative experiment, and a rare opportunity, particularly for a large, critically endangered taxon such as the black rhinoceros. Our findings differ from previous recommendations, reinforce the importance of long‐term data sets and comprehensive metrics of translocation success, and suggest attention be shifted from ecological to social constraints on population growth and species recovery, particularly when translocating species with polygynous breeding systems.     

Global justice and the opportunity costs of conservation

Opportunity costs can represent a significant portion of the costs associated with conservation projects and frequently outstrip other kinds of cost. They are typically understood to refer to the benefits someone would have obtained if conservation projects had not required them to give up current activities, such as farming or hunting or if the land had been available for uses other than conservation. This familiar way of identifying opportunity costs is flawed, however, because it threatens to condone, or take advantage of, the injustices that many people face that affect their opportunities. I integrated ideas from the political theory of global justice to examine how the analysis of opportunity costs illustrates the importance of considering conservation and issues of global justice together, rather than thinking about them in isolation. I distinguish four baselines for defining opportunity costs. A status quo baseline defines opportunity costs by asking what people would have earned had a conservation project not happened. A willingness to accept baseline defines them by asking people what it would take to make them indifferent to whether a conservation project takes place or not. An antipoverty baseline suggests that opportunity costs have been met when people affected by a project are not left in poverty. An egalitarian baseline suggests opportunity costs have been met when people are not left in relative disadvantage, with worse than average opportunities. I argue that the egalitarian baseline is the most acceptable from the point of view of justice. Such a baseline would suggest that, in practice, many of the world's poor are being unjustly treated, or even exploited, as a result of conservation activities.     

Environmental Impact on Coastal Waters off Rio De Janeiro Due to Sewage Discharge via Submarine Outfall

A survey was made in an area of 28 km² around the outlest of Ipanema's submarine outfall in order to evaluate the impact of the raw domestic sewage effluent on coastal waters. Nutrient concentrations, dissolved oxygen, particulate matter and other physico-chemical parameters were measured monthly for 15 months. Copper and lead concentrations were also determined for two of the samplings.

The outfall has been in operation for 18 years, and the parameters measured within the observation area appear to be in steady state. From the observed radial concentration gradients within the survey area, a real extension of the steady state distribution of particulate matter and of sewage-derived nitrogen was estimated. the stationary cloud of particulate organic matter was about 150 km². From its total inventory and the discharge rate, a mean residence time of the particles in the sea of 56 days is estimated, prior to their being decomposed by bacterial action or settling to the bottom. for sewage derived N (as ammonia or nitrate), the steady state amount (above background) covers an area of about 60 km² and leads to a mean residence time of 5 ± 1 days in the ocean. Phosphorus is readily absorbed by the phytoplankton.

The presence of temperature gradients established by cold upwelling waters controls the dispersion of the sewage material and the rising of the sewage plume to the surface waters.     

Pregnancy-associated plasma protein A: A possible marker in the classification and prenatal diagnosis of Cornelia de Lange syndrome

The concentration of human placental lactogen (hPL), pregnancy specific beta-1 glycoprotein (SP-1) and pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) were analysed in consecutive serum samples from a patient who gave birth to a child with Cornelia de Lange syndrome. HPL and SP-1 were present in normal concentrations from week 20 to week 35 of gestation whereas PAPP-A could not be detected in any of the samples examined. Immunohisto-chemical examination of two placentae from Cornelia de Lange syndrome revealed normal localization of hPL and SP-1 but the absence of PAPP-A from the syncytiotrophoblast. The significance of association between Cornelia de Lange syndrome and compromised synthesis of PAPP-A is discussed.     

Survey of discomfort glare from the headlamps of cars widely used in Iran

Objective: On 2-lane roads, discomfort glare can cause annoyance, discomfort, inconvenience, stress, and fatigue to drivers, posing a risk of accidents. The aim of this study is to evaluate discomfort glare from the headlamps of cars widely used in Iran.

Methods: The discomfort glare of new vehicles including Pride Saba model GTX, Pride Model 131SL, Samand Soren, Peugeot 405, Megane, and Peugeot Pars was examined at distances of 5 to 100 m at a background luminance of 50 cd/m² (late twilight/early dawn lighting) and 1 cd/m² (nighttime) using Schmidt-Clausen and Bindels model and de Boer's subjective scale.

Results: According to the de Boer scale, at a background luminance of 50 cd/m², the discomfort glare for all studied vehicles was between 1.98 and 4.05 in high-beam mode and between 3.5 and 5.4 in low-beam mode. At a background luminance of 1 cd/m², discomfort glare was between 0.41 and 2.48 in high-beam mode and between 1.93 and 3.84 in low-beam mode. In high-beam mode, the average levels of discomfort glare of these vehicles gradually increased when the distance between cars was reduced by up to about 20 m. In low-beam mode, there was no discomfort glare up to a vehicle distance of 40 m. In addition, at an angle of 1.15°–5.73° between the line of sight and light of vehicles in high-beam mode, the level of discomfort glare was increased, but at an angle of 5.73°–22.9° the level of discomfort glare was reduced. In low-beam mode at an angle of 2.86°–22.9°, the level of discomfort glare was almost identical. The results show that in high-beam mode and with a 100-m distance between vehicles as well as in low-beam mode at intervals of less than 40 m between cars, discomfort glare is created.

Conclusion: It can be concluded that by providing solutions such as installing road lighting system, an increase in luminance of roads, separating or widening road lanes, increasing the lateral distance between vehicles, and increasing the angle between lighted vehicles and drivers can noticeably reduce discomfort glare.     

一种基于分布式推理的火情探测系统

为克服用于火情探测的传统中心化系统网络负载高、灵活性差、推理效率低等问题,提出了一种无线传感网络环境下基于分布式推理的火情探测系统。该系统依托局部模糊逻辑和知识驱动聚类技术,能够融合当前环境信息、被预测的环境信息(短期知识)和偏差环境信息(长期知识),进而生成针对火情的更加复杂和精细的推理结果。该系统采用Ⅱ型模糊逻辑模型,避免了Ⅰ型模糊逻辑模型在建模非确定性局部知识和动态环境时准确率较低的问题;此外,该系统采用知识驱动节点自动聚类策略,并引入选择概率机制,有效降低了网络负载并提升了对非确定性的建模能力。对真实数据集进行试验,与多款基于无线传感网络的火情探测系统的试验结果对比表明,该系统能够生成针对火情的更加复杂和精细的知识推理结果,而且显著减少了无线传感网环境承载的消息数量,提高了知识推理的即时性和准确性。     

固定源飞灰中PCDD/Fs的时间变化特性分析

对河北省某生活垃圾焚烧厂(固定源)飞灰中二恶英(PCDD/Fs)含量随时间的变化特性进行了分析,并结合美国、欧盟和国内排放标准限值和3种常见垃圾(医疗垃圾、生活垃圾和工业危险废弃物)以及PCDDs/PCDFs比值,分析了焚烧飞灰中PCDD/Fs特征。结果表明:2014年10月—2015年11月PCDD/Fs的TEQ变化范围为0.00322~0.671μg I-TEQ/kg,同时O8CDD(5.020%~34.19%)、2,3,7,8-T4CDF(0.764%~9.696%)和1,2,3,7,8-P5CDF(0.273%~8.575%)均在PCDD/Fs浓度中占据主要贡献率,2,3,4,7,8-P5CDF(12.12%~68.53%)在PCDD/Fs毒性当量中占据主要贡献率,并且均低于美国、欧盟和国内排放标准限值,同时发现PCDDs/PCDFs TEQ比值与焚烧垃圾类型存在一定关系;本研究样品中PCDD/Fs的合成机理符合从头反应的理论。     

Latent Extinction and Invasion Risk of Crayfishes in the Southeastern United States

Abstract: Crayfishes are both a highly imperiled invertebrate group as well as one that has produced many invasive species, which have negatively affected freshwater ecosystems throughout the world. We performed a trait analysis for 77 crayfishes from the southeastern United States in an attempt to understand which biological and ecological traits make these species prone to imperilment or invasion, and to predict which species may face extinction or become invasive in the future. We evaluated biological and ecological traits with principal coordinate analysis and classification trees. Invasive and imperiled crayfishes occupied different positions in multivariate trait space, although crayfishes invasive at different scales (extraregional vs. extralimital) were also distinct. Extraregional crayfishes (large, high fecundity, habitat generalists) were most distinct from imperiled crayfishes (small, low fecundity, habitat specialists), thus supporting the “two sides of the same coin” hypothesis. Correct classification rates for assignment of crayfishes as invasive or imperiled were high (70–80%), even when excluding the highly predictive but potentially confounding trait of range size (75–90%). We identified a number of species that, although not currently listed as imperiled or found outside their native range, possess many of the life‐history and ecological traits characteristic of currently invasive or imperiled taxa. Such species exhibit a high latent risk of extinction or invasion and consequently should be the focus of proactive conservation or management strategies. Our results illustrate the utility of trait‐based approaches for taxonomic groups such as invertebrates, for which detailed species‐specific data are rare and conservation resources are chronically limited.