中国安全经济贡献率的计量分析

安全经济贡献率的准确计算对于指导国家安全投入力度和宏观安全决策起着重要作用。为了准确计算中国安全生产对经济的贡献率,以弥补以往经验取值方法的局限,笔者通过建立计量经济学模型,获得了精确的安全产出与安全投入的函数关系,并得出我国安全生产规模报酬递增的结论。在此基础上又建立时间序列模型,预测出我国2005年的安全经济贡献率为3.01%,安全投入产出比为1.00∶1.81。从预测结果来看,计量模型收到了满意的结果,对国家宏观安全决策具有一定的指导意义。     

中国大陆地区年最大平均风速的概率密度函数

根据中国大陆地区1951-2002年的实测风速数据资料，采用密度演化方法进行了各站点年最大平均风速的概率密度函数估计，给出了大陆地区年最大平均风速均值和标准差的等值线分布图。与常用的基于拟合优度检验的概率密度函数估计和统计量分析不同，所提方法不需要进行先验分布类型的假定，可以通过直接计算给出与基本数据经验分布函数符合得较好的概率密度函数与概率分布函数。对比研究表明，该方法给出的统计结果是可信的，具有工程实用参考价值。     

基于半参数分析的电力需求预测算法

市场经济对电力需求预测提出了更高的要求。在简要介绍和评论以往国内外常用电力需求预测方法优缺点基础上,为了提高电力需求预测的准确度及预测方法的适应性,建立半参数回归模型预测电力需求。半参数回归模型分为线性和非线性两部分。线性部分反映了负荷预测可知的部分规律,非线性部分反映了负荷预测的不确定因素的影响。用偏残差方法估计半参数回归模型,估计结果由两步得到。首先估计线性参数部分,然后再估计非线性参数部分。通过示例计算,半参数回归模型对电力需求预测的估计误差数值小于二元线性回归法对电力需求预测的估计误差。结果表明:利用半参数回归法预测电力需求是一种预测精度高、计算容易、普适性强的算法。     

USING ARTIFICIAL STREAMS TO EVALUATE PERTURBATION EFFECTS ON AUFWUCHS STRUCTURE AND FUNCTION1

ABSTRACT: Artificial streams can assist in assessing the potential impact of pollutants on the structure and function of aquatic communities. While most artificial streams are constructed within a controlled environment or are maintained by recirculating water, we constructed a series of artificial streams along a river bank using river water on a once through basis. This system was used to develop and test methods for structural and functional analyses of Aufwuchs communities. Only the flow rate and stream depth were controlled while individual streams were perturbed to obtain communities of altered ecological condition. This experimental system provided a relatively inexpensive series of treated and untreated streams which allowed an evaluation and comparison of methods using communities under various stressed and nonstressed conditions. Without the stabilizing effects of a controlled atmosphere or recirculating water, our approach demonstrated a degree of variability which approached that of the river. We inferred that the Aufwuchs community present in the artificial streams maintained a high degree of structural complexity and functional dynamism, providing a strong test of our methods and an opportunity to examine current ecological theory.     

几种降低有机样品分析系统误差的方法

有机痕量分析的样品处理包括从样品采集直到最终分离测定的全过程,在有机痕量分析中,必须严格防止所用器皿、化学试剂、溶剂等污染,减少系统误差。     

Effect of diet manipulation in dairy cow N balance and nitrogen oxides emissions from grasslands in northern Spain

Dietary modifications in dairy cattle have been reported as a useful strategy to alter the composition of manure. Many reports have been published on how changes in dietary crude protein content and forage-to-concentrate ratio reduces animal nitrogen (N) excretion, but little information exists about the effect of diet modification on nitrous oxide (N₂O) and nitric oxide (NO) emission when the subsequent slurry is applied on grassland. Two diets differing in forage:concentrate ratio (high forage or HF diet, 75:25; low forage or LF diet, 55:45) were tested to detect the improvement of N use efficiency in milk and the reduction of urinary and fecal N excretion. Triticale silage and barley grain were used as the main forage and concentrate sources in the diets. The subsequent slurries were characterized for N and ammonium-N content (NH₄⁺-N) and applied on grassland in order to study total and pattern of emission of N₂O and NO.The HF diet reduced the voluntary dry matter intake of the cows, N intake and urinary and fecal N excretion. However, the reduction of N intake did not improve the N use efficiency in milk (NUE) (21.0%) and did not reduce N excretion per unit of milk produced (15 g N l⁻¹) due to the lower milk yield. Slurries were similar in N content but differed in NH₄⁺ content, being lower in HF. Therefore, different slurry amounts were needed to be applied on grassland to reach the correct fertilisation rate (120 kg NH₄⁺-N ha⁻¹). Total emissions of N₂O (5.8 and 5.0 kg N₂O-N ha⁻¹) and NO (507.2 and 568.6 g NO-N ha⁻¹), and the pattern of emissions were not affected by dietary treatments. When fertilisation management depends on the collected volume to empty the slurry pit, higher N₂O and NO emissions per kg of slurry could be expected from LF slurry. Nevertheless, if slurry is applied following recommendation rates, N₂O and NO emission per unit of milk produced might be slightly lower from LF slurry. Grass yield (1.5 t dry matter ha⁻¹) and N uptake (50 kg N ha⁻¹) did not vary due to the applications of different slurries, and was attributed to low rainfalls. The correct management of the slurries on grasslands may justify an adequate nutritional strategy of dairy herds from an environmental and productive point of view.     

微生物固体发酵转化水生植物的研究

采用黑曲霉、绿色木霉和耐热克鲁维酵母发酵芦苇叶和浮萍原料,研究植物原料中粗蛋白含量的变化以及纤维素酶活的变化。研究结果表明,在水生植物原料中接种7%的黑曲霉和3%的热克鲁维酵母进行共发酵的效果最佳,发酵后芦苇叶原料和浮萍原料中粗蛋白含量分别提高了8.58倍和3.64倍;黑曲霉与耐热克鲁维酵母共发酵时其降解纤维素的能力显著提高。有望利用该工艺发酵这两种水生植物生产蛋白饲料。     

基于多重分形理论的近海污染物空间分布特性研究

针对我国近海污染物空间分布特征难于辩析的问题,通过对多重分形理论的研究,提出了一种新的近海污染物空间分布特征的分析方法。以天津市近岸海域20个水环境监测点为例,随机选择两个不同水期的COD监测数据进行分析,采用多重分形矩方法计算COD空间分布的多重分形维数谱函数f(α)。计算结果显示其α(q)-f(α)曲线均为连续不对称的上凸曲线,表明近海污染物在空间上的分布并不是简单的正态或对数正态分布,而是连续多重分形分布,近海污染物高浓度部分的奇异性较低浓度部分大,平水期的奇异性较丰水期大。应用表明,该分析结果与天津市近岸海域实际情况相一致,这些成果的取得为辩析近海污染物的空间分布特征,并进一步采用基于多重分形理论的算法模型计算近海水环境容量提供了理论依据。     

浅析近岸海域环境功能与发展规划的矛盾

从环境功能与发展规划、短期与长期矛盾、开发与保护并进等方面分析了近岸海域环境功能区划调整的必要性,为环境管理提供参考。     

丹江口库区湿地生态系统的现状分析及研究展望

丹江口水库是中国南水北调中线工程的水源地,其库区湿地已被列入《中国重要湿地名录》。温地具有截留污染、蓄洪防旱、保护生物多样性等一系列重要的生态功能,因此维持丹江口库区温地生态系统的健康对中线调水工程具有非常重要的意义。在此结合丹江口库区湿地相关的研究资料,概括出库区内三种主要的湿地类型,根据生境状况重点阐述了库区消涨带湿地生态系统的特征,并分析了库区湿地的重要生态功能。在总结了丹江口库区湿地保护现状的同时分析了库区温地存在的生态环境问题,并提出了相应的管理和研究对策,以期从生态学的角度服务于库区湿地生态系统管理及中线调水工程。