京津冀突发事件总体应急预案量化评价

应急预案是应对突发事件工作的重要抓手,加强应急预案管理已成为新时期我国各级政府应急管理工作的重要任务。为提高京津冀应急预案质量,通过构建PMC指数模型来评价该地区突发事件总体应急预案,为预案优化提供建议。选取京津冀5项代表性突发事件总体应急预案为研究样本,首先,基于对预案文本的挖掘与分析以及借鉴已有研究关于应急预案评价指标的设定,建立了包含9个一级变量和57个二级变量的评价指标体系。其次,通过测算得出各个预案的PMC指数分值,据此对每项预案进行分析与优化。结果表明,5项预案的PMC指数均值为7.89,根据评级划分标准,5项预案总体表现良好,其中2项等级为优秀,3项等级为良好。除了在事件分类分级标准、恢复与重建这两个一级变量上没有失分外,在其他一级变量上都有失分,具体可以依据二级变量在这几个方面实施优化。     

上海市居民对城市暴雨内涝的风险感知与适应行为研究

气候变化背景下,适应城市极端天气风险不仅是政府的责任,也越来越需要公众参与。然而,对风险感知、适应感知和适应行为响应的影响因素,以及三者之间的内在联系还缺乏系统认识。通过问卷调研上海市居民发现：(1)风险感知可以促进适应感知,二者均与收入和教育水平等显著正相关。(2)与关注预警信息和使用防水防潮材料等个人适应行为相比,居民对集体行为的响应程度更高,如增加绿地面积和提高监测预警准确性等。(3)适应行为的影响因素可归纳为：信息通达性、社区归属感、适应意愿、适应激励、风险感知和适应感知,其中信息通达性和适应激励是显著提高个人适应行为的关键因素。     

社会减灾能力信任及水灾风险感知的区域对比——基于江西九江和宜春公众的调查

研究公众对社会减灾能力及灾害风险的认识，有助于从公众视角揭示风险潜在因素，不仅是进行风险沟通的必备环节，还可以为开展有效的减灾宣传教育、提高公众减灾意识提供决策依据。通过社会调查（221份样本）和统计分析方法，比较了江西九江、宜春公众对于社会减灾能力的信任及水灾风险感知。结果表明，公众对于社会减灾能力基本持信任态度，信任度高低排序为：灾害监测预报>政府应急>防灾工程>预警传播，其中宜春公众的信任度较高；公众对于水灾的风险感知较弱，尤其是宜春公众认为水灾发生、受灾的可能性很小；公众的信任与对区域减灾能力的了解无关，主要是受到受灾经历（受灾次数、灾情损失、灾后救援）的影响，即区域本底灾害风险的高低导致公众认知的差异，风险较高区域（九江）的公众具有更为明确的降低风险的行为倾向及意愿。     

Public Investment and Environrnental Sustainability of Agricultural Production in China

The excessive application of fertilizer and pesticides in grain production in China has posed a threat to the environrnental sustainability of agricultural production. One of the major reasons of the increasing usage of chemical inputs by farmers is their trying to reach higher yields, especially in absence of adequate public inputs, such as development and extension of appropriate technology and necessary production infrastructure, etc. Based on the cropspecific data of the past 20 years, this paper examines how the public investments in agricultural researches could impact on the reduction of farmers' private material inputs of major grain crops in China. It manifests that the increased investments in public sector, especially in agricultural researches, is a favorable and effective way to reduce farmers' private material inputs and should be given a priority consideration in the policy emendation to increase yields and improve production sustainability.     

Combining payment for crop damages and reward for productivity to address wildlife conflict

Conflict caused by wild herbivores damaging crops is an almost universal problem in conservation. We designed and implemented a game-theory-based system for supporting farmers whose crops were being heavily damaged by wild herbivores. In this community-operated system, farmers self-report their production, which is endorsed by neighboring farmers. The average deficit in production is compensated for by a payment that is directly proportional to the average deficit in production of the group and to the individual farmer's productivity. As a result, farmers are compensated for the average damage (support) and rewarded for individual productivity (reward) (i.e., support cum reward [SuR]). The design of the game is such that only honest reporting gives maximum returns. Farmers who underreport receive less payment because the SuR amount is proportionate to their self-reported productivity. The endorsing farmers, in their own self-interest, prevent overreporting. The system involves multiple game situations, the combined result of which is a stable strategy based on honesty and hard work. In 2 villages along the western boundary of Tadoba Andhari Tiger Reserve in central India, we tested the system with 75 farmers over 6 crop seasons. After a few initial attempts to cheat, honesty prevailed throughout the group. Average crop productivity increased 2.5-fold, in spite of damage, owing to increased effort by farmers. Apart from wildlife conflict resolution, the model offers a promising alternative to crop insurance and a potential behavioral green revolution in agriculture.     

Molecular prenatal diagnosis of Smith–Lemli–Opitz syndrome is reliable and efficient

Smith–Lemli–Opitz (RSH) syndrome (SLOS, OMIM 270400) is a relatively common, autosomal recessive disorder of cholesterol biosynthesis with a broad spectrum of phenotypic abnormalities caused by mutations of the 7-dehydrocholesterol reductase gene (DHCR7) on chromosome 11. Prenatal diagnosis can be established by detection of elevated 7-dehydrocholesterol or of SLOS-causing mutations in the DHCR7 gene. We report here our experience with molecular prenatal diagnosis of SLOS. Mutation analysis of the DHCR7 gene was performed in chorionic villus samples of 13 pregnancies of couples with a family history of SLOS and known SLOS genotypes. This approach is accurate and reliable. If facilities for biochemical analysis are not available, or in cases with ambiguous biochemical patterns, molecular prenatal diagnosis is an attractive, alternative option. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Perinatal hepatic infarction in twin–twin transfusion

We report a case of a twin pregnancy which was complicated by a twin–twin transfusion in which the recipient twin was noted to have an intra-abdominal echogenic mass. This twin died at two days of age of hepatic infarction. The donor twin was healthy at birth, at thirty weeks' gestation, and did not have any subsequent problems. Fetal intra-abdominal echogenicity may be a marker of hepatic infarction. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Research on Public Participation and Information Publicity in Strategic Environmental Assessment

1 INTRODUCTIONStrategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is the application of EIA(Environment Impact Assessment) to strategic actions such as policies, plans or programs (PPPs). More specially, SEA is: 'The formalized, systematic and comprehensive process of evaluating the environmental impacts of a policy, plan or program and its alternatives, including the preparation of a written report on the findings of that evaluation, and using the findings in publicly accountable decision-ma…     

生态旅游本土化问题研究

如何在接受西方生态旅游新观念的同时；又保持自己的本土特色,是值得我们认真关注的一个课题。生态价值观是人类如何看待同自然关系的一种整体意识，中西方生态价值观在历史进程中表现出相异的特点：西方主张人地分立．中国力求“天人合一”，但这一特点在当代又有所变异.受此影响，西方生态旅游资源强调其自然属性．而中国则以自然和人文融合的旅游资源为基础。因此．西方生态旅游市场呈现出一元特征，而中国则必须同时考虑市场的消费和培育双重功能,构造高端和大众二元结构的市场。大众生态旅游是现阶段朝向西方式严格生态旅游的一个有益过渡.注重本土化色彩的生态旅游认证体系的推行，生态旅游区的建设，以及生态旅游产品的开发是发展中国生态旅游的当务之急.     

Case report: a prenatal case of Jarcho–Levin syndrome diagnosed during the first trimester of pregnancy

The Jarcho–Levin syndrome is a specific form of spondylocostal/spondylothoracic dysostosis. There have been various classifications of this syndrome. We present the case of a severe prenatal Jarcho–Levin syndrome, diagnosed by ultrasound examination during the first trimester of pregnancy in a family with no previous medical history of an affected child. X-ray exploration, high-resolution spiral computed tomography and autopsy confirmed the diagnosis. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.