可靠性理论在公共安全领域的应用研究

对公共安全体系从系统可靠性的视角,综合运用可靠性方面的知识,构建公共安全系统混联模型;进而将可靠性分配理论与故障树分析方法相结合,根据系统安全目标的要求,确定混联系统的第一层次各单元事件的可靠性目标值,对构成各单元的各个下属单元采取最小工作量可靠度分配方法,从而建立系统中各单元可靠度再分配量化模型。通过建筑物火灾引起人员伤亡事故实例,详述系统各单元可靠性分配的计算过程。研究表明,可靠性理论可以成功地应用到公共安全领域;使系统在给定的目标值条件下达到系统的安全性优化,实现了公共安全保障效能,减小灾害损失。     

煤矿企业安全监管的反联盟博弈分析

在构建包含煤矿企业各利益相关者的安全博弈关系模型的基础上,重点探讨中央政府、地方政府、煤矿企业之间的博弈及其利益的得失,进而分析危机和矿难形成的原因和机理。研究表明:地方政府与煤矿企业之间具有共同的利益,联盟动力很强,二者的联盟是煤矿企业安全事故频发的主要原因;打破地方政府与煤矿企业之间联盟的根本是降低二者选择联盟策略的收益,压缩其博弈空间。     

完善环境影响评价公众参与的初步研究

环境影响评价制度是我国的一项基本环境保护法律制度,是环境管理体系的重要组成部分,完善公众参与体系有利于解决当前环境影响评价中公众参与存在的问题。在总结国内外公众参与发展进程的基础上,对完善公众参与体系进行了初步研究,提出了完善公众参与体系的内涵要点,提高公众参与体系研究力度,建立公众参与学相关内容。     

重构煤炭主体专业教育的公益性

从煤炭主体专业教育具有的公益性属性分析入手,指出煤炭主体专业的办学经费日紧和煤炭主体专业边缘化与去煤化,公益性日渐式微。建议从国家、高校、企业、个人家庭等各个层次全方位重构煤炭主体专业教育的公益性,加强国家利益至上,强化政府主渠道作用,在政策与教育投入要向其倾斜,优先发展与保障煤炭主体专业的教育,制定相关法规确保煤炭专业生源与人才培养质量,并在该领域就业。国家、企业、高校与个人家庭利益相关者都应在制度上强化各自应有的责任,从而形成一个多层次全方位良性互动发展的培养与吸纳人才的机制,确保煤炭主体专业教育的公益性,促进煤炭主体专业健康发展,满足安全生产的人才需求的供给,从而为煤炭安全生产提供重要保障。     

大型公共场所动态引导人移动路径设计方法

针对方向式动态引导在大型公共场所安全疏散中的重要作用,以及对动态引导人移动路径研究不足的现状,提出利用比值函数设计动态引导人移动路径的方法。并借鉴TSP(旅行商问题)方法的求解思路,提出可用于动态引导人移动路径优化的禁忌搜索算法。以一个内部布局较为复杂的大型公共场所模拟场景为例,利用MA-ESM疏散模型,分别模拟了引导人最优移动路径、最短移动路径和影响面积最大路径3种不同情景下疏散效果。结果表明,利用影响面积和路径长度比值最大的优化算法计算得出的引导人移动路径,既可满足在相同时间内引导更多的人员进行疏散,又可节省总体的疏散时间,充分保证疏散效果,验证了笔者所提出的动态引导人移动路径优化算法的合理性。     

Collaborative emergency management: better community organising, better public preparedness and response

Community coordination requires communication and planning of precautions to take when faced with a severe threat of disaster. The unique case of the four Florida hurricanes of 2004--Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne--is used here to assess community responses to repeated threats of hurricanes. The paper examines how effectiveness in coordinating community disaster response efforts affects future public preparedness. The findings suggest that pre-season planning, open communication between emergency managers and elected officials, and the use of technology all had a significant impact on community responses. The repeated threat scenario indicates that emergency managers must work vigilantly to keep residents informed of the seriousness of a situation. The study describes how emergency managers in Florida countered public complacency during four hurricanes in six weeks. The strategies identified as useful by public managers in the context of hurricanes are applicable to other natural and man-made disasters.     

公共场所火灾伤员转运护理应急资源评估

为保障伤员生命与健康,提升火灾伤员救治率,该文研究公共场所火灾伤员转运护理应急资源评估方法.以火灾伤员转运护理应急资源需求分析为基础,从应急人员、应急设备、应急环境信息与应急管理四个方面出发,共选取15个评估指标,构建公共场所火灾伤员转运护理应急资源评估指标体系,根据各指标采集相关数据并对数据实施量纲标准化处理.构建基...     

关于环境监测站在事业单位改革浪潮中转型发展的思考

根据事业单位分类改革政策,环境监测站属于公益性二类事业单位.通过分析监测站目前运行过程中存在的问题和面临的形势,提出了包括增强服务意识、提升综合素质、推进内部机制改革、参与市场竞争与合作等一系列实现转型发展的对策.     

The News You Choose: news media preferences amplify views on climate change

How do choices among information sources reinforce political differences on topics such as climate change? Environmental sociologists have observed large-scale and long-term impacts from news media and think-tank reports, while experimental science-communication studies detect more immediate effects from variations in supplied information. Applying generalized structural equation modeling to recent survey data, previous work is extended to show that political ideology, education and their interaction predict news media information choices in much the same way they predict opinions about climate change itself. Consequently, media information sources serve as intervening variables that can reinforce and, through their own independent effects, amplify existing beliefs about climate change. Results provide empirical support for selective exposure and biased assimilation as mechanisms widening political divisions on climate change in the United States. The findings fit with the reinforcing spirals framework suggesting partisan media strengthens climate change beliefs which then influences subsequent use of media.     

The greening of Christianity? A study of environmental attitudes over time

In contradistinction to the ideas of Lynn White and others who have long suggested that the Judeo-Christian tradition fosters a ‘dominion over nature’ ethos, a number of scholars have recently argued that there has been a ‘greening of Christianity’. Largely missing from this debate is strong evidence at the individual level as to whether Christians have in fact adopted deeper environmental concerns over time. This study provides such evidence through an examination of longitudinal data from Gallup’s annual surveys on the environment. The analysis reveals little evidence that Christians have expressed more environmental concern over time. In fact, across many measures, Christians tend to show less concern about the environment. This pattern holds across Catholic, Protestant and other Christian denominations and for differing levels of religiosity. These findings support a conclusion that there has not been a discernible ‘greening of Christianity’ among the American public.