Metrics for quantifying how much different threats contribute to red lists of species and ecosystems

Red lists are a crucial tool for the management of threatened species and ecosystems. Among the information red lists provide, the threats affecting the listed species or ecosystem, such as pollution or hunting, are of special relevance. This information can be used to quantify the relative contribution of different threat factors to biodiversity loss by disaggregating the cumulative extinction risk across species into components that can be attributed to certain threats. We devised and compared 3 metrics that accomplish this and may be used as indicators. The first metric calculates the portion of the temporal change in red list index (RLI) values that is caused by each threat. The second metric attributes the deviation of an RLI value from its reference value to different threats. The third metric uses extinction probabilities that are inferred from red list categories to estimate the contribution of a threat to the expected loss of species or ecosystems within 50 years. We used data from Norwegian Red Lists to test and evaluate these metrics. The first metric captured only a minor portion of the biodiversity loss caused by threats because it ignores species whose red list category does not change. Management authorities will often be interested in the contribution of a given threat to the total deviation from the optimal state. This was measured by the remaining metrics. The second metric was best suited for comparisons across countries or taxonomic groups. The third metric conveyed the same information but uses numbers of species or ecosystem as its unit, which is likely more intuitive to lay people and may be preferred when communicating with stakeholders or the general public.     

第三代移动式大气环境激光雷达监测系统及其应用

介绍了第三代移动式大气环境激光雷达监测系统(AML-3)的结构和主要设备,展示了该系统在监测颗粒物、气态污染物方面的优势,并在中国环境科学研究院(40.04°N,116.41°E)开展了大气环境和气象监测试验。结果表明:与常规地面环境监测相比,AML-3实现了对常规污染物浓度和颗粒物消光系数的近地面、垂直与斜程廓线分布以及地面气象要素(温度、相对湿度、风速、风向和大气压)的可移动综合监测;随高度增加大气颗粒物后向散射系数呈先增大后减小的趋势,并在近地面出现极大值区,同时,晴天大风天气条件下气溶胶层高度较晴天低风速天气条件下增加明显;相对湿度较大时,颗粒物数浓度与相对湿度呈负相关,反之呈正相关。     

关于提高挥发酚测定质量的探讨

探讨了在水样采集及分析测定过程中，如何保证分析结果的可靠性和准确性。     

南京冬季气溶胶消光特性及霾天气低能见度特征

利用2015年1月气溶胶散射和吸收系数、PM_2.5质量浓度、大气能见度以及常规气象观测数据,分析了南京冬季大气气溶胶散射系数与吸收系数的变化特征,给出了散射系数与吸收系数对大气消光的贡献,以及能见度与PM_2.5质量浓度和相对湿度的关系.结果表明,观测期间南京大气气溶胶的散射系数和吸收系数分别为(423.4±265.3) Mm^-1和(24.5±14.3) Mm^-1,对大气消光的贡献分别为89.2%和5.2%,表明大气消光主要贡献来自于气溶胶的散射.散射系数与PM_2.5相关性较好(R²=0.91),能见度随PM_2.5质量浓度呈指数下降,也与相对湿度保持一定负相关性.能见度均值为4.3km,且连续出现能见度不足2km的低能见度天气,霾天气下消光系数和PM_2.5质量浓度大幅超过非霾天气,最高值分别达到1471.2Mm^-1和358 μg/m³,霾天气下能见度的降低来自颗粒物与相对湿度的共同影响.     

颗粒物激光雷达在大气复合污染立体监测中的应用

针对由于局地污染、沙尘输入、外源性输入与局地污染物相互叠加所导致的3种灰霾污染发生过程,分别选取3个典型案例,采用颗粒物激光雷达对污染物的时空分布特征进行解析。研究发现,在局地污染发生时,污染物从地面开始垂直向上扩散,扩散高度约1 km。重度污染过程中,气溶胶的日均垂直消光系数随高度的变化背离指数衰减特征,800 m高度处出现消光系数的极大值层,极大值超过2.5 km-1,800 m以下消光系数近乎常数,约为0.3 km-1。这说明,重污染过程中,有一层较厚重的颗粒物分布,使近地面污染物在垂直方向的扩散能力减弱,形成积累效应,造成大面积空气混浊。当有外源性沙尘输入时,激光雷达能够清晰地监测到污染团输入的全过程。沙团突然出现在高空2~3 km。污染团退偏振度较大,超过0.3。随着沙尘粒子的重力沉降,沙团的轮廓在垂直方向上不断地增大。沙团的输入,导致近地面粗颗粒质量浓度的增加幅度明显大于细颗粒。在第3个案例中,激光雷达清晰地监测到高空1.8~3 km突然出现含有大量球形细颗粒的污染团,同时还发现此污染团与近地面的污染物有不同的演化特征。近地面污染物随时间垂直向上扩散,12:00左右扩散高度超过1.8 km。而高空的污染团逐渐沉降进入边界层内,与近地面扩散的污染物相互混合,共同导致本地的灰霾天气。综上所述,激光雷达可以清晰地捕获污染物的垂直结构特征,对不同的致霾过程进行立体解析,实现对大气复合污染的监测和机理研判。     

北京大气能见度和消光特性变化规律及影响因素

利用长时间序列的大气能见度与湿度等气象资料以及近年来大气污染物的监测数据,探讨了北京大气能见度及消光特性的变化规律及影响因素.结果显示:近50年来北京大气消光作用存在降-升-降的变化过程,1954~1967年以下降为主,20世纪60年代中期至70年代明显上升,此后特别是20世纪90年代以来北京大气消光作用基本呈缓慢下降趋势,能见度变化过程与此相反.从区域分布看北京大气消光作用北部及西部山区低于平原区,平原区存在由北向南逐渐升高的分布规律,即北部平原区低于中部市区,中部市区低于南部平原区.近10年来北京大气颗粒物消光作用区域差异逐渐减小,这与大气污染区域分布变化趋势基本一致.北京大气消光作用20世纪80年代之前冬高夏低,之后转为冬低夏高,对应于大气污染由煤烟型向综合型的转变.大气消光作用平均日变化呈双峰双谷型,09:00和21:00形成双峰,06:00和16:00处于双谷,但月际差异明显.大气消光作用受颗粒物浓度与相对湿度影响显著.高消光作用通常与高相对湿度和高颗粒物浓度有关;低消光作用出现在湿度和颗粒物质量浓度同时较小情况.相对湿度低于70%时,大气颗粒物消光作用会随着PM2.5浓度的升高明显增强,消光作用与PM2.5浓度存在线性关系;当相对湿度大于70%时,消光作用对PM2.5浓度变化的响应并不明显.     

准组织化:“互联网+线上应急救援”的实践路径和现实困境*—以河南郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害事件为例

为响应我国应急管理现代化和信息化建设需要,采用参与式观察、网络民族志和深度访谈方法,从准组织化集体行动视角切入,对河南郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害事件中救援模式相对成熟的“互联网+线上应急救援”实践路径和现实困境进行探讨。研究结果表明:线上应急救援实践路径涵盖聚合、运转、高效、离散4个阶段,且以持续不断的行动流呈现,具有准组织化集体行动特征;同时,线上救援形式面临“合法性”不确定、救援质量不稳定、风险评估主观性和政府正式沟通渠道有限性等现实困境,研究结果可为我国应急管理信息化建设提供参考。     

Setting Practical Conservation Priorities for Birds in the Western Andes of Colombia

We aspired to set conservation priorities in ways that lead to direct conservation actions. Very large‐scale strategic mapping leads to familiar conservation priorities exemplified by biodiversity hotspots. In contrast, tactical conservation actions unfold on much smaller geographical extents and they need to reflect the habitat loss and fragmentation that have sharply restricted where species now live. Our aspirations for direct, practical actions were demanding. First, we identified the global, strategic conservation priorities and then downscaled to practical local actions within the selected priorities. In doing this, we recognized the limitations of incomplete information. We started such a process in Colombia and used the results presented here to implement reforestation of degraded land to prevent the isolation of a large area of cloud forest. We used existing range maps of 171 bird species to identify priority conservation areas that would conserve the greatest number of species at risk in Colombia. By at risk species, we mean those that are endemic and have small ranges. The Western Andes had the highest concentrations of such species—100 in total—but the lowest densities of national parks. We then adjusted the priorities for this region by refining these species ranges by selecting only areas of suitable elevation and remaining habitat. The estimated ranges of these species shrank by 18–100% after accounting for habitat and suitable elevation. Setting conservation priorities on the basis of currently available range maps excluded priority areas in the Western Andes and, by extension, likely elsewhere and for other taxa. By incorporating detailed maps of remaining natural habitats, we made practical recommendations for conservation actions. One recommendation was to restore forest connections to a patch of cloud forest about to become isolated from the main Andes. Establecimiento de Prioridades Prácticas para la Conservación de Aves en los Andes Occidentales de Colombia     

Using expert knowledge to support Endangered Species Act decision-making for data-deficient species

Many questions relevant to conservation decision-making are characterized by extreme uncertainty due to lack of empirical data and complexity of the underlying ecologic processes, leading to a rapid increase in the use of structured protocols to elicit expert knowledge. Published ecologic applications often employ a modified Delphi method, where experts provide judgments anonymously and mathematical aggregation techniques are used to combine judgments. The Sheffield elicitation framework (SHELF) differs in its behavioral approach to synthesizing individual judgments into a fully specified probability distribution for an unknown quantity. We used the SHELF protocol remotely to assess extinction risk of three subterranean aquatic species that are being considered for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We provided experts an empirical threat assessment for each known locality over a video conference and recorded judgments on the probability of population persistence over four generations with online submission forms and R-shiny apps available through the SHELF package. Despite large uncertainty for all populations, there were key differences between species’ risk of extirpation based on spatial variation in dominant threats, local land use and management practices, and species’ microhabitat. The resulting probability distributions provided decision makers with a full picture of uncertainty that was consistent with the probabilistic nature of risk assessments. Discussion among experts during SHELF's behavioral aggregation stage clearly documented dominant threats (e.g., development, timber harvest, animal agriculture, and cave visitation) and their interactions with local cave geology and species’ habitat. Our virtual implementation of the SHELF protocol demonstrated the flexibility of the approach for conservation applications operating on budgets and time lines that can limit in-person meetings of geographically dispersed experts.     

消防水幕衰减火灾热辐射的实验研究

通过全尺寸消防水幕衰减火灾热辐射实验,分析了火灾空间烟气温度的分布,探讨了喷头流量和压力、设置高度、喷头类型和布置方式对水幕衰减辐射热能力的影响,获得了不同工况下消防水幕的隔热效率.在此基础上,结合消防水幕的工程设计参数,揭示了消防水幕在不同的设置条件下隔热效率的变化规律.研究结果对于优化消防水幕设计提高隔热效率具有理论和实践上的指导意义.