Site-selection bias and apparent population declines in long-term studies

Detecting population declines is a critical task for conservation biology. Logistical difficulties and the spatiotemporal variability of populations make estimation of population declines difficult. For statistical reasons, estimates of population decline may be biased when study sites are chosen based on abundance of the focal species. In this situation, apparent population declines are likely to be detected even if there is no decline. This site-selection bias is mentioned in the literature but is not well known. We used simulations and real population data to examine the effects of site-selection biases on inferences about population trends. We used a left-censoring method to detect population-size patterns consistent with site-selection bias. The site-selection bias is an important consideration for conservation biologists, and we offer suggestions for minimizing or mitigating it in study design and analysis. Article impact statement: Estimates of population declines are biased if studies begin in large populations, and time-series data show a signature of such an effect.     

Obstruction of biodiversity conservation by minimum patch size criteria

Minimum patch size criteria for habitat protection reflect the conservation principle that a single large (SL) patch of habitat has higher biodiversity than several small (SS) patches of the same total area (SL > SS). Nonetheless, this principle is often incorrect, and biodiversity conservation requires placing more emphasis on protection of large numbers of small patches (SS > SL). We used a global database reporting the abundances of species across hundreds of patches to assess the SL > SS principle in systems where small patches are much smaller than the typical minimum patch size criteria applied for biodiversity conservation (i.e., ∼85% of patches <100 ha). The 76 metacommunities we examined included 4401 species in 1190 patches. From each metacommunity, we resampled species–area accumulation curves to evaluate how biodiversity responded to habitat existing as a few large patches or as many small patches. Counter to the SL > SS principle and consistent with previous syntheses, species richness accumulated more rapidly when adding several small patches (45.2% SS > SL vs. 19.9% SL > SS) to reach the same cumulative area, even for the very small patches in our data set. Responses of taxa to habitat fragmentation differed, which suggests that when a given total area of habitat is to be protected, overall biodiversity conservation will be most effective if that habitat is composed of as many small patches as possible, plus a few large ones. Because minimum patch size criteria often require larger patches than the small patches we examined, our results suggest that such criteria hinder efforts to protect biodiversity.     

Predicting the time needed for environmental systematic reviews and systematic maps

Systematic reviews (SRs) and systematic mapping aim to maximize transparency and comprehensiveness while minimizing subjectivity and bias. These are time-consuming and complex tasks, so SRs are considered resource intensive, but published estimates of systematic-review resource requirements are largely anecdotal. We analyzed all Collaboration for Environmental Evidence (CEE) SRs (n = 66) and maps (n = 20) published from 2012 to 2017 to estimate the average number of articles retained at each review stage. We also surveyed 33 experienced systematic reviewers to collate information on the rate at which those stages could be completed. In combination, these data showed that the average CEE SR takes an estimated 164 d (full-time equivalent) (SD 23), and the average CEE systematic map (SM) (excluding critical appraisal) takes 211 d (SD 53). While screening titles and abstracts is widely considered time-consuming, metadata extraction and critical appraisal took as long or longer to complete, especially for SMs. Given information about the planned methods and evidence base, we created a software tool that predicts time requirements of a SR or map with evidence-based defaults as a starting point. Our results shed light on the most time-consuming stages of the SR and mapping processes, will inform review planning, and can direct innovation to streamline processes. Future predictions of effort required to complete SRs and maps could be improved if authors provide more details on methods and results.     

Contribution of Systematic Reviews to Management Decisions

Systematic reviews comprehensively summarize evidence about the effectiveness of conservation interventions. We investigated the contribution to management decisions made by this growing body of literature. We identified 43 systematic reviews of conservation evidence, 23 of which drew some concrete conclusions relevant to management. Most reviews addressed conservation interventions relevant to policy decisions; only 35% considered practical on‐the‐ground management interventions. The majority of reviews covered only a small fraction of the geographic and taxonomic breadth they aimed to address (median = 13% of relevant countries and 16% of relevant taxa). The likelihood that reviews contained at least some implications for management tended to increase as geographic coverage increased and to decline as taxonomic breadth increased. These results suggest the breadth of a systematic review requires careful consideration. Reviews identified a mean of 312 relevant primary studies but excluded 88% of these because of deficiencies in design or a failure to meet other inclusion criteria. Reviews summarized on average 284 data sets and 112 years of research activity, yet the likelihood that their results had at least some implications for management did not increase as the amount of primary research summarized increased. In some cases, conclusions were elusive despite the inclusion of hundreds of data sets and years of cumulative research activity. Systematic reviews are an important part of the conservation decision making tool kit, although we believe the benefits of systematic reviews could be significantly enhanced by increasing the number of reviews focused on questions of direct relevance to on‐the‐ground managers; defining a more focused geographic and taxonomic breadth that better reflects available data; including a broader range of evidence types; and appraising the cost‐effectiveness of interventions. Contribuciones de las Revisiones Sistemáticas a las Decisiones de Manejo     

Chytridiomycosis and Seasonal Mortality of Tropical Stream‐Associated Frogs 15 Years after Introduction of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis

Assessing the effects of diseases on wildlife populations can be difficult in the absence of observed mortalities, but it is crucial for threat assessment and conservation. We performed an intensive capture‐mark‐recapture study across seasons and years to investigate the effect of chytridiomycosis on demographics in 2 populations of the threatened common mist frog (Litoria rheocola) in the lowland wet tropics of Queensland, Australia. Infection prevalence was the best predictor for apparent survival probability in adult males and varied widely with season (0–65%). Infection prevalence was highest in winter months when monthly survival probabilities were low (approximately 70%). Populations at both sites exhibited very low annual survival probabilities (12–15%) but high recruitment (71–91%), which resulted in population growth rates that fluctuated seasonally. Our results suggest that even in the absence of observed mortalities and continued declines, and despite host–pathogen co‐existence for multiple host generations over almost 2 decades, chytridiomycosis continues to have substantial seasonally fluctuating population‐level effects on amphibian survival, which necessitates increased recruitment for population persistence. Similarly infected populations may thus be under continued threat from chytridiomycosis which may render them vulnerable to other threatening processes, particularly those affecting recruitment success. Quitridiomicosis y Mortalidad Estacional de Ranas Asociadas a Arroyos Tropicales Quince Años Después de la Introducción de Batrachochytrium dendrobatidisvsp     

Assessing the Potential to Restore Historic Grazing Ecosystems with Tortoise Ecological Replacements

The extinction of large herbivores, often keystone species, can dramatically modify plant communities and impose key biotic thresholds that may prevent an ecosystem returning to its previous state and threaten native biodiversity. A potentially innovative, yet controversial, landscape‐based long‐term restoration approach is to replace missing plant‐herbivore interactions with non‐native herbivores. Aldabran giant (Aldabrachelys gigantea) and Madagascan radiated (Astrochelys radiata) tortoises, taxonomically and functionally similar to the extinct Mauritian giant tortoises (Cylindraspis spp.), were introduced to Round Island, Mauritius, in 2007 to control the non‐native plants that were threatening persistence of native species. We monitored the response of the plant community to tortoise grazing for 11 months in enclosures before the tortoises were released and, compared the cost of using tortoises as weeders with the cost of using manual labor. At the end of this period, plant biomass; vegetation height and cover; and adult, seedling, flower, and seed abundance were 3–136 times greater in adjacent control plots than in the tortoise enclosures. After their release, the free‐roaming tortoises grazed on most non‐native plants and significantly reduced vegetation cover, height, and seed production, reflecting findings from the enclosure study. The tortoises generally did not eat native species, although they consumed those native species that increased in abundance following the eradication of mammalian herbivores. Our results suggest that introduced non‐native tortoises are a more cost‐effective approach to control non‐native vegetation than manual weeding. Numerous long‐term outcomes (e.g., change in species composition and soil seed bank) are possible following tortoise releases. Monitoring and adaptive management are needed to ensure that the replacement herbivores promote the recovery of native plants. Estudiando el Potencial para Restaurar Ecosistemas Históricos de Forrajeo con Reemplazos Ecológicos de Tortugas Terrestres     

Indirect Effects of Pandemic Deer Overabundance Inferred from Caterpillar‐Host Relations

Externally feeding phytophagous insect larvae (i.e., caterpillars, here, larval Lepidoptera and sawflies, Hymenoptera: Symphyta) are important canopy herbivores and prey resources in temperate deciduous forests. However, composition of forest trees has changed dramatically in the eastern United States since 1900. In particular, browsing by high densities of white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) has resulted in forests dominated by browse‐tolerant species, such as black cherry (Prunus serotina), and greatly reduced relative abundance of other tree species, notably pin cherry (Prunus pensylvanica) and birches (Betula spp.). To quantify effects of these changes on caterpillars, we sampled caterpillars from 960 branch tips of the 8 tree species that comprise 95% of trees in Allegheny hardwood forests: red maple (Acer rubrum), striped maple (Acer pensylvanicum), sugar maple (Acer saccharum), sweet birch (Betula lenta), yellow birch (Betula allegheniensis), American beech (Fagus grandifolia), black cherry, and pin cherry. We collected 547 caterpillar specimens that belonged to 66 Lepidoptera and 10 Hymenoptera species. Caterpillar density, species richness, and community composition differed significantly among tree species sampled. Pin cherry, nearly eliminated at high deer density, had the highest density and diversity of caterpillars. Pin cherry shared a common caterpillar community with black cherry, which was distinct from those of other tree hosts. As high deer density continues to replace diverse forests of cherries, maples, birches, and beech with monodominant stands of black cherry, up to 66% of caterpillar species may be eliminated. Hence, deer‐induced changes in forest vegetation are likely to ricochet back up forest food webs and therefore negatively affect species that depend on caterpillars and moths for food and pollination. Efectos Indirectos de la Sobreabundancia de Venados Pandémicos Inferida de Relaciones Orugas‐Huéspedes     

Biological parameters used in setting captive‐breeding quotas for Indonesia's breeding facilities

The commercial captive breeding of wildlife is often seen as a potential conservation tool to relieve pressure on wild populations, but laundering of wild‐sourced specimens as captive bred can seriously undermine conservation efforts and provide a false sense of sustainability. Indonesia is at the center of such controversy; therefore, we examined Indonesia's captive‐breeding production plan (CBPP) for 2016. We compared the biological parameters used in the CBPP with parameters in the literature and with parameters suggested by experts on each species and identified shortcomings of the CBPP. Production quotas for 99 out of 129 species were based on inaccurate or unrealistic biological parameters and production quotas deviated more than 10% from what parameters in the literature allow for. For 38 species, the quota exceeded the number of animals that can be bred based on the biological parameters (range 100–540%) calculated with equations in the CBPP. We calculated a lower reproductive output for 88 species based on published biological parameters compared with the parameters used in the CBPP. The equations used in the production plan did not appear to account for other factors (e.g., different survival rate for juveniles compared to adult animals) involved in breeding the proposed large numbers of specimens. We recommend the CBPP be adjusted so that realistic published biological parameters are applied and captive‐breeding quotas are not allocated to species if their captive breeding is unlikely to be successful or no breeding stock is available. The shortcomings in the current CBPP create loopholes that mean mammals, reptiles, and amphibians from Indonesia declared captive bred may have been sourced from the wild.     

Incorporating Uncertainty of Management Costs in Sensitivity Analyses of Matrix Population Models

The importance of accounting for economic costs when making environmental‐management decisions subject to resource constraints has been increasingly recognized in recent years. In contrast, uncertainty associated with such costs has often been ignored. We developed a method, on the basis of economic theory, that accounts for the uncertainty in population‐management decisions. We considered the case where, rather than taking fixed values, model parameters are random variables that represent the situation when parameters are not precisely known. Hence, the outcome is not precisely known either. Instead of maximizing the expected outcome, we maximized the probability of obtaining an outcome above a threshold of acceptability. We derived explicit analytical expressions for the optimal allocation and its associated probability, as a function of the threshold of acceptability, where the model parameters were distributed according to normal and uniform distributions. To illustrate our approach we revisited a previous study that incorporated cost‐efficiency analyses in management decisions that were based on perturbation analyses of matrix population models. Incorporating derivations from this study into our framework, we extended the model to address potential uncertainties. We then applied these results to 2 case studies: management of a Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population and conservation of an olive ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys olivacea) population. For low aspirations, that is, when the threshold of acceptability is relatively low, the optimal strategy was obtained by diversifying the allocation of funds. Conversely, for high aspirations, the budget was directed toward management actions with the highest potential effect on the population. The exact optimal allocation was sensitive to the choice of uncertainty model. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty when making decisions and suggest that more effort should be placed on understanding the distributional characteristics of such uncertainty. Our approach provides a tool to improve decision making.