REAL-TIME SNOW SIMULATION MODEL FOR THE MONONGAHELA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Pittsburgh District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, is responsible for operating two multipurpose reservoirs in the 7384 square mile (19198 square kilometer) Monongahela Basin. A third reservoir, presently under construction, will soon be operating. The real-time forecasting of runoff for operational purposes requires simulation of snow accumulation and snowmelt throughout the Basin during the winter season. This article describes capabilities of SNOSIM, a model being developed for performing such simulation. The application of this model as part of a comprehensive system of water control software, and some initial simulation results are presented.     

SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF USING ARMAX MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Time series models of the ARMAX class were investigated for use in forecasting daily riverflow resulting from combined snowmelt/rainfall. The Snowmelt Runoff Model (Martinec-Rango Model) is shown to have a form similar to the ARMAX model. The advantage of the ARMAX approach is that analytical model identification and parameter estimation techniques are available. In addition, previous forecast errors can be included to improve forecasts and confidence limits can be estimated for the forecasts. Diagnostic checks are available to determine if the model is performing properly. Finally, Kalman filtering can be used to allow the model parameters to vary continuously to reflect changing basin runoff conditions. The above advantages result in improved flow forecasts with fewer model parameters.     

考虑火场环境实时作用下的人群疏散仿真研究

在现行的性能化防火设计中,通常将火灾发展与人员疏散两个过程分开考虑,从而忽略了火场环境对人员疏散过程的实时作用。该方法与实际情况有很大差异。笔者借助火灾模拟程序CFAST和人员疏散仿真软件buildingEXODUS,以某地铁车站为例,进行了火场环境实时作用下的人群疏散仿真研究。结果表明,火场环境会降低人群的判断和活动能力,延长疏散时间并产生其他的不利后果。因此,在防火设计中考虑火场环境对人群疏散的实时影响是十分必要的。     

New fetal cardiac imaging techniques

Rapid advances in graphics computing and micro-engineering have offered new techniques for prenatal cardiac imaging. Some of them can be non-invasively applied to both clinical and laboratory settings, including dynamic three-dimensional echocardiography, myocardial Doppler imaging, harmonic ultrasound imaging, and B-flow sonography. With clinical constraints, a few others have been mainly used in laboratories, such as endoscopic ultrasound, magnetic resonance imaging and biomicroscopy. Appropriate use and co-use of these new tools will not only provide unique information for better clinical assessment of fetal cardiac disease but also offer new ways to improved understanding of cardiovascular development and pathogenesis. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Y chromosome detection by Real Time PCR and pyrophosphorolysis-activated polymerisation using free fetal DNA isolated from maternal plasma

Objectives To validate the use of Real Time PCR, a widely used technique that can detect very low levels of Y chromosomal sequence, and to assess the use of a highly sensitive PCR technique, pyrophosphorolysis-activated polymerisation (PAP), for fetal sex determination using free fetal DNA (ffDNA). Methods The fetal sex was determined by Real Time PCR in 58 pregnancies using ffDNA isolated from maternal plasma. In parallel with the Real Time PCR experiments, the presence of Y chromosome sequence was also determined using PAP on 54 isolated ffDNA samples. Results Both techniques detected Y chromosome sequence at very low levels with 98% specificity and 100% sensitivity (Real Time n = 44, PAP n = 54). Furthermore, the PAP technique was shown to be more robust than the Real Time PCR as none of the samples tested failed to meet the acceptance criteria. Combining the two techniques for male fetal sex detection from maternal blood plasma increases the sensitivity and specificity to 100% in this series. Conclusions This study shows that both Real Time PCR and PAP can be used for Y chromosome detection on ffDNA. Furthermore, by using PAP in combination with Real Time PCR more reliable early prenatal sexing can be performed using ffDNA. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.