我国物质流研究述评

在分析我国近年来物质流研究成果的基础上,探讨目前研究存在的问题,并提出今后物质流研究应在以下几方面作出努力:建立学术平台、研究基地,加强学术交流;建立统一的分析和计算的框架和具体系数的估算方法;把物质流分析的成果与具有社会价值的经济、人口、土地等因素结合分析,与国外进行对比,找出我国的问题所在;建立我国或者特定区域的隐藏流系数的实时分析模型;物质投入产出表的编撰与研究;对我国未开展物质流研究的典型区域进行物质流分析。     

综合评价指数法在公路建设项目评价中的应用

针对公路建设项目的特点,从选取生态因子入手,采取定量分析手段,研究了公路建设对生态环境和景观的影响程度。结果表明：用8个生态因子进行生态环境影响综合评价,能够反映公路建设对生态环境的综合影响程度,并且具有计算简单和直观的效果。综合来看,定量方法对评价生态和景观受影响的程度效果较好。     

基于微观模拟的企业排污强度差异及区域特征

同一工业行业内的企业存在排污强度个体差异,从数量有限的企业环境统计数据得出行业平均排污强度,并用其代表该行业在区域层面的经济-环境水平,会带来一定偏差.因此以嵌入环境消耗投入的生产函数为基础,建立了企业运营决策的微观模拟模型,从机制上描述企业排污强度的差异.以2005年德阳市机械制造行业为案例,对模型的相关参数进行了率定,使其较好地描述了2005年环境统计口径内各企业的COD排放强度.模型的计算结果表明,由环境统计口径内企业计算的区域平均COD排放强度(万元固定资产排放0.002 6 t,万元工业产值排放0.001 5 t)小于由区域内全部企业计算的区域平均COD排放强度(万元固定资产排放0.003 0 t,万元工业产值排放0.002 3 t),市域内6个县级行政区的排污强度也体现出了明显差异.以上的排污强度区域特征主要源自行业内部结构(企业的规模分布,技术分布),及其空间差异.     

生产安全领域科研项目成果评价指标与评价方法研究*

为了更全面、更准确地开展生产安全领域科研项目成果的评价工作,以国家对科技成果评价的相关法规与标准为指引,结合生产安全领域科研项目成果的自身特点,基于德尔菲法从“学术与技术水平”、“成果效益”和“成果影响”3个方面构建相应的多层次评价指标体系;结合生产安全领域科研项目成果特点,提出综合采用同行评议法、多维指数评价法、层次分析法、模糊综合评价法和科学计量法的评价方法选择思路,并以Yaahp作为评价方法的配套工具进行实际应用。研究结果可为生产安全领域相关科研项目成果的评价工作提供一套从指标体系到评价方法,从评价方法到评价工具的整体解决方案。     

Evaluation of ecological restoration success in mining‐degraded lands

This review article analyzes the importance of assessing the success of ecological restoration by using four indicators: assemblage of the plant and animal communities; enzyme activity; litter accumulation and decomposition; and the improvement of soil quality. These indicators can be used alone or in combinations. Even though the Society for Ecological Restoration International provided a primer containing nine attributes to use as standards for measuring ecological restoration, only three of these attributes could be easily applied due to their low costs and low time requirements. These three attributes include: diversity, vegetation structure, and ecological processes. This review article emphasizes that the criteria for the selection of the indicator species should be based upon: habitat types, abundance of species, ease of measuring, quantifying and interpreting the results, gradual enhancement with time and cost‐effectiveness, sensitivity, variability of response, size, residential status, and requirements of the area. Principal component analysis was applied to calculate the reclaimed mine soil quality index (RMSQI) and the forest soil quality index (FSQI) and the RMSQI value was compared with FSQI (optimum index value of reference ecosystem) to evaluate the restoration success. Available phosphorus, exchangeable magnesium, organic carbon, clay content, field moisture, available nitrogen, electrical conductivity, and pH are identified as the most influential parameters that regulate the health of reclaimed mine soil. Exchangeable calcium, magnesium, cation exchange capacity, sand, silt, clay content, field moisture, available phosphorus, and pH are the controlling properties for forest soil. The observed values of the above‐stated soil indicator properties were converted into a unitless score (0–1.00) and integrated into index calculations (RMSQI and FSQI). The contribution of each soil indicator properties on the calculated index was analyzed, which provides insight into the reason for the measured index. A higher RMSQI indicates better ecological restoration success. The calculated RMSQI was found to be 0.473 in the reclaimed dump, which is 6% lower than the reference ecosystem.     

磁絮凝预处理景观湖泊的补水试验研究

为了快速净化景观湖泊的补水,采用磁絮凝法对Ⅴ类甚至劣Ⅴ类河道水体进行预处理,设计正交试验,分析了絮凝剂(PAC)、助凝剂(PAM)以及磁铁粉的投加量对预处理效果的影响,并利用正交试验法和多指标综合评分法进一步优化磁絮凝预处理工艺参数,结果表明最佳工艺参数为:磁铁粉加入量100 mg/L,PAC投加量150 mg/L,PAM投加量2 mg/L。在此最佳工艺参数下,进行验证试验,COD去除率达到50.39%,TP去除率为96.65%,浊度去除率为91.59%,氨氮去除率为6.31%,除氨氮外,其他各指标基本均能达到地表水环境Ⅲ类水体标准,达到了预处理目的,为后续深度净化减轻负荷压力。     

环境影响评价中公众参与绩效考核指标体系构建与实证研究

本文构建了公众参与绩效考核指标体系,通过专家咨询法确定各指标权重,然后以湘潭垃圾焚烧发电厂环境影响评价中公众参与为例,运用模糊综合评判法进行实证研究。研究结论对提高环境影响评价中公众参与力度,考核公众参与的绩效水平提供科学依据。     

Driver's obesity and road crash risks in the United States

Objective: We assessed obesity trends in U.S. drivers involved in fatal crashes since 1999 and distinguished whether crash risk factors were different between obese and nonobese drivers.

Methods: We included only drivers of passenger cars involved in fatal traffic crashes between January 1, 1999, and December 31, 2012. Obesity was classified according to the World Health Organization guidelines and profiled between 1999 and 2012 using the adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) from log-binomial regression models. Differences in crash risks (e.g., driver's fatality, drunk driving, seat belt nonuse) between obese and nonobese drivers were estimated as adjusted odds ratios (aORs) using logistic regression models.

Results: A total of 753,024 U.S. drivers were involved in fatal crashes, for which obesity information was available for 534,887. About 56% (n = 299,078) were driving passenger cars. The prevalence of class I obesity increased from 10% in 1999 to 14% in 2012 (aPR = 1.50, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.42–1.58), class II obesity from 3 to 5% (aPR = 2.22, 95% CI, 2.05–3.01), and class III obesity from 1 to 2% (aPR = 2.65; 95% CI, 2.27–3.10). Compared to nonobese controls, obese drivers had significantly higher risks for fatality (1.10 ≤ aOR ≤ 1.47), seat belt nonuse (1.00 ≤ aOR ≤ 1.21), need for extrication (1.01 ≤ aOR ≤ 1.23), and ambulance transport time ≥30 min (1.01 ≤ aOR ≤ 1.28). Compared to nonobese controls, obese drivers were less likely to drink drive (0.41 ≤ aOR ≤ 0.72) or speed >65 mph (0.78 ≤ aOR ≤ 0.93).

Conclusion: The rising national prevalence of obesity extends to U.S. drivers involved in fatal crashes and indicates the need to improve seat belt use, vehicle design, and postcrash care for this vulnerable population.     

包头市企业环境行为信用评价指标体系研究

企业环境行为信用评价是一种符合国情的先进的环境管理手段,是对当前环境管理制度的重要补充和完善.为了强化政府对污染源的监管,提升环保部门的环境监管力度和水平,督促企业持续改进环境行为,文章对不同尺度的指标体系进行了分析对比,结合包头市实际情况,构建了包含污染防治、环境管理、社会影响和组织管理四部分共二十五项指标的包头市企业环境行为信用评价指标体系,以期对环境管理起到检查和促进作用、前瞻和导向功能.     

城市环境系统质量评价方法比较及实证研究

根据城市环境系统的内涵,从环境质量、资源利用、污染控制、生态建设四个方面构建了城市环境系统质量评价指标体系,并运用竞争性评价模型对十个沿海城市2012年的环境系统质量状况进行了综合评价和排序.为了判定竞争性评价模型的可靠性,采用传统的综合指数法进行验证性评价,结果表明:两种方法的评价结果具有较好的一致性,得分排在前6位的城市完全相同,其它城市的排序相差不大,因此,竞争性评价模型用于城市环境系统质量评价具有较好的可靠性.