花卉秸秆和牛粪联合堆肥的中试研究

以花卉废物和牛粪为原料 ,进行了温度反馈的通气量控制联合堆肥的中试研究 .一次发酵采用静态好氧床进行 ,过程控制采用温度反馈通气量控制方法 ,周期 2 0天 ;二次腐熟采用周期性翻堆 ,周期 4 0天 .试验分析了堆肥过程中堆体温度、水分、pH值、有机质、湿重、干重、体积、湿容重、干容重等指标随时间的变化特征 ,结果表明 :采用温度反馈通气量控制的静态好氧堆肥技术进行花卉废物和牛粪的联合堆肥可以有效控制堆肥过程 ,实现有机物料的快速稳定和去除水分 .     

基于pH调控的城市污泥厌氧发酵产酸小试研究

本研究设计了热碱预处理-半连续流厌氧发酵污泥处理工艺,探究了p H对热碱预处理污泥产酸性能的影响,同时对发酵液作为碳源回用于污水厂强化脱氮除磷进行了质量衡算.在30 L厌氧发酵罐中考察了偏中性(p H=6.5)和碱性(p H=10.0)条件下热碱预处理污泥发酵的挥发性脂肪酸(VFA)产生及分布、蛋白质及碳水化合物的消耗和氮磷释放情况.结果表明,污泥热碱预处理-半连续流厌氧发酵工艺的VFA产量稳定,在p H为6.5和10.0的条件下,发酵罐中平均VFA产率分别为333.29 mg·g-1(以每g VS产生的COD(mg)计,下同)和250.64 mg·g-1,p H为6.5时产酸更稳定,且产量较高,但碱性条件更适合产乙酸.两种p H条件下的SCOD、溶解性蛋白质、溶解性多糖、氮和磷的释放都无较大差异.质量衡算结果表明,以处理量为50000 m3·d-1的城市污水处理厂为例,其产生的污泥经过热碱预处理-半连续流厌氧发酵产酸工艺,产生的VFA能够满足该污水处理厂脱氮除磷提标改造的碳源需求.     

EFFECTIVE USE OF LANDSAT DATA IN HYDROLOGIC MODELS1

ABSTRACT: In a cooperative demonstration project, NASA and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) compared conventional and Landsat-derived land-use data for use in hydrologic models, and the resulting discharge frequency curves were analyzed. When a grid-based data-management system was used on a cell-by-cell basis (size about 1.1 acres or 0.45 hectare), Landsat classification accuracy was only 64 percent, but, when the grid cells were aggregated into watersheds, the classification accuracy increased to about 95 percent. When both conventional and Landsat land-use data were input to the HEC-1 model for generating discharge frequency curves, the differences in calculated discharge were judged insignificant for subbasins as small as 1.0mi² (2.59 km²). For basins larger than 10mi² (25.9km²), use of the Landsat approach is more cost-effective than use of conventional methods. Digital Landsat data can also be used effectively by local and regional agencies for hydrologic analysis by incorporating the data into grid-based data-management systems. The transfer of this new technology is well under way through inclusion in some Corps training courses and through use by both county government personnel and private consultants.     

Rapid Assessment of Plant Diversity Patterns: A Methodology for Landscapes

We present a rapid, cost-efficient methodology to link plantdiversity surveys from plots to landscapes using: (1) unbiasedsite selection based on remotely sensed information; (2) multi-scale field techniques to assess plant diversity; (3)mathematical models (species-area curves) to estimate thenumber of species in larger areas corrected for within-typeheterogeneity; and (4) mathematical techniques to estimatetotal species richness and patterns of plant diversity in alandscape. We demonstrate the methodology in a 754 ha studyarea in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, U.S.A.,using four 0.025 ha and twenty-one 0.1 ha multi-scalevegetation plots. We recorded 330 plant species (1/3 thenumber of plants recorded in the 1074 km² Park) in the2.2 ha area within the plots: this represents a samplingintensity of 0.29% of the 754 ha study site. We estimated 552plant species, about half the plant species recorded in the Park,in just 0.7% of the Parks area. We show how this rapid,cost-efficient methodology: (1) produces a rich informationbase on the patterns of native plant diversity and thedistribution of non-native plant species and keystoneecosystems; and (2) can be easily adapted for other nationaland state parks, national forests, wildlife refuges, and nature reserves.     

Ecotoxicological Characterisation and Classification of Existing Chemicals

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: In 1998, the International Council of Chemical Associations (ICCA) launched a global initiative to investigate more than 1,000 HPV chemicals (High Production Volume, > or = 1,000 t/a) within the refocused OECD HPV Chemicals Programme. Up to the OECD SIDS Initial Assessment Meeting in April 2004 (SIAM 18) 147 ICCA dossiers (ca. 230 CAS-No) have been assessed based on a harmonised data set. The environmental profile and an ecotoxicological characterisation of these chemicals are presented here. Data for acute aquatic toxicity were correlated among each other, as well as data for fish (LC50, LD50) and rodents (LD50). The data for acute aquatic toxicity are compared with other existing chemicals. METHODS: Data of the ICCA HPV chemicals from the OECD SIAM 11-18 are presented for: log Kow (as an indicator for bioaccumulation potential), biodegradation, acute aquatic toxicity and availability of long-term toxicity data. Correlation analysis was performed with log transformed data and a linear regression model was fitted to the data, if a significant correlation was found. Acute toxicity for fish and acute oral toxicity for rodents were correlated on a molar basis. Acute aquatic toxicity of the chemicals is compared with data from BUA reports 1-234 and a random EINECS sample (Knacker et al. 1995). RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: According to the dossier information, 71 of the 147 ICCA chemicals are not 'readily biodegradable', 21 have a log Kow > or = 3, and 44 are 'toxic' (LC/EC50 < or = 10 mg/L) or 'very toxic' (LC/EC50 < or = 1 mg/L) to aquatic organisms. For 77, only the base set (acute fish, Daphnia and algae) is available, for the rest at least one long-term test (fish or Daphnia) is available and three tests for a mere 14 others. Based on the data presented, the SIAM gives recommendations for Environment and Human Health. 22 chemicals have been identified as a 'candidate for further work' for Environment and 16 for Human Health. The highest correlation coefficient was obtained correlating fish and Daphnia (r2 = 0.79). LC50 (fish) is significantly correlated with LD50 (rodent), but data are widely scattered. The correlation is not improved after transforming LC50 (fish) to LD50 (fish), using BCF QSAR. Based on acute aquatic toxicity, 25.1% of the chemicals from the BUA reports 1-234 are classified as 'very toxic' (LC/EC50 < or = 1 mg/L). This proportion is 2.5-fold higher than the ICCA HPV chemicals and 1.4-fold higher than the random EINECS sample. CONCLUSIONS: Correlation coefficients for aquatic toxicity data are rather uniform (0.57-0.79) compared with literature data, but also the best correlation was observed between fish and Daphnia. Because the scatter around the regression lines is still considerable, simple predictions of ecotoxicity between species are not possible. Correlation of LC50 (fish) and LD50 (rodent) indicates that toxicity is different. Surprisingly, the correlation of fish and rodent toxicity is not improved by transforming LC50 values to internal LD50s. The selection of ICCA chemicals by market significance (production volume) leads to a classification of toxicity, which is more comparable to a random sample of EINECS chemicals than to German BUA chemicals. The latter were chosen for concern (for Environment or Human Health). RECOMMENDATIONS AND OUTLOOK: Of 147 dossiers assessed between SIAM 11-18, ca. 75% were sponsored by the three following countries: Germany (42), USA (37) and Japan (33). The current output is about 50 dossiers per year (70-100 CAS-No), but a trend for an increase of output is noticeable. Industry, national authorities, and OECD work on a further development to speed up the output. The number of chemicals with 'low priority for further work' and the work recommended for the 'candidates' (mainly exposure assessment) indicate that the data presented were adequate for an initial hazard assessment according to OECD requirements. From the ICCA HPV list (n = 880, state of 1999) 44% of the chemicals have data available to cover all SIDS endpoints for Environment and only 33% for Human Health (Allanou et al. 1999). This indicates the importance of the Initiative to provide information on existing chemicals. The authors agree with the expectation "...that the scientific information provided by this global initiative will be considered as an internationally accepted and harmonised basis for further steps of chemicals management." (ICCA 2002 b).     

Rates of environmental problem generation: Thoughts on a new research direction

Environmental scientists are continually discovering new and emerging environmental problems. There have been many studies of how a particular environmental problem has occurred, its costs to society, and its (potential) resolution. However, to date there have been few studies of the rate at which new environmental problems are generated by human technological innovations. In this note, I present a conceptual framework that will help quantify how many now-unknown problems we may expect to occur in a given sector. Two brief case studies illustrate the difficulty of finding appropriate dataset for fitting the full model, however. Policy implications of the conceptual framework are discussed, with different kinds of economic sectors requiring different approaches.     

城市公共场所人群拥挤踩踏事故分析

城市公共场所人群高度聚集、流动性大,紧急状态时常发生群死群伤的拥挤踩踏事故,造成大量人员伤亡和恶劣的社会影响。笔者首先提出拥挤踩踏事故分析的一般方法,并用群集指数来表征人群高度聚集这一参量;通过对近年来国内外人群拥挤踩踏事故的分析,认为该类事故以人群高度聚集为条件,由公众造成又危害公众,具有诱因众多、发生突然、难以控制等特点;强调事故预防和控制重点是建立事故应急机制,加强人群的管理和疏导等;同时从公共场所的性能优化设计、人群素质和群集密度、人群管理控制以及信息交流等方面分析其事故原因及提出相应对策,对预防此类事故发生,减少群集伤亡有重要意义。     

WATER SUPPLY OPTIONS IN A NEW MEXICO WATER PLANNING REGION1

ABSTRACT: The population in the Jemez y Sangre Water Planning Region of New Mexico has reached the point at which the demand for water exceeds available supplies, particularly when precipitation is below average, as has frequently occurred in recent years. The desire to develop a sustainable water supply that relies on renewable supplies in wet years and preserves the water in storage for times of drought motivated a diverse set of stakeholders in the region to participate in regional water planning. The planning effort culminated in development of the Jemez y Sangre Regional Water Plan, which was adopted by municipal and county governments in the region. The plan assesses and compares water supply and demand in the region and recommends alternatives for protecting and restoring the existing water supply and addressing the pending gap between supply and demand anticipated by the year 2060. To convey to decision makers the alternatives available to solve the future water shortage, option charts were developed to portray the amount of water that could be obtained or conserved through their implementation. The option charts show that the projected gap between supply and demand cannot be met through one alternative only, but will require a combination of alternatives.     

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF LARGE RIVERS WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE MISSOURI RIVER1

ABSTRACT: The technocratic approach for managing the Missouri River and other large rivers is not effective in resolving conflicts among competing uses of water and dealing with uncertainty about how river ecosystems respond to alternative management actions. Adaptive management offers an alternative way to address these and other issues. It has the potential to alleviate management gridlock and provide lasting solutions to management of the Missouri River and other large river ecosystems. In passive adaptive management, simulation models and expert judgment are combined to select a preferred management action. While passive adaptive management is relatively simple and inexpensive to use, it does not necessarily provide reliable information for making management decisions. Active adaptive management uses statistically designed experiments to test assumptions or hypotheses about ecosystem responses to management actions. It is best carried out by a collaborative working group. Active adaptive management has several advantages, but the inability to satisfy certain prerequisites for successful application makes it more difficult to implement in large river ecosystems. A second‐best approach is proposed here to select, implement, monitor, and evaluate a preferred management action and retain that action provided ecological conditions improve and socioeconomic indicators do not fall below established acceptability limits.     

DETERMINISTIC-SYSTEMIC RELATIONSHIPS IN OVERLAND FLOW ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: An analysis of storm runoff is presented, giving primary attention to deterministic-systemic relationships. So that system aspects can be emphasized, other aspects are kept simple; analysis is made for uniform rainfall on a strip of uniform width, limiting direct applicability to small areas. Two relationships between excess rain and time of concentration, one based on hydraulic parameters, the other on hydrologic characteristics, are combined in a solution for peak discharge. The hydraulic expression gives the interrelationship of time of concentration, excess rain, friction, length, and slope. The hydrologic relationship is achieved by converting ordinary intensity-duration curves to corresponding excess rain intensity-duration curves, thereby interrelating excess rain, time of concentration, and loss characteristics. The resulting solution for peak discharge allows for systemic feedback among both hydraulic and hydrologic parameters.