西北地区雷暴气候特征分析

雷电产生于中尺度对流天气系统,具有明显的局地和时效特征,对西北地区气象站点历史雷暴资料的统计发现,夏季最强,春秋次之,冬季几乎无雷暴发生;地理分布呈三大中心区;与海拔高度、经度、纬度的相关分析及年际变化分析表明,地形地势是影响该地区雷暴的主要因子.高原上的雷暴云较其它地区容易产生冰雹,冰雹日数与雷暴日数比值最大为0.36.西北夏季大部分地方的闪电密度小于1个.km-2.a-1,夏季3个月的闪电密度有3个最强中心,新疆西部是最强的闪电密度中心,超过9个.km-2.a-1,7月中心最强,6月次之,8月较弱.     

Toward accurate and precise estimates of lion density

Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to understanding ecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital to conservation because wildlife authorities rely on estimates to make decisions. However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide‐ranging carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not been widely adapted to African carnivores, such as lions (Panthera leo). Although abundance indices for lions may produce poor inferences, they continue to be used to estimate density and inform management and policy. We used sighting data from a 3‐month survey and adapted a Bayesian spatially explicit capture‐recapture (SECR) model to estimate spatial lion density in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and surrounding conservancies in Kenya. Our unstructured spatial capture‐recapture sampling design incorporated search effort to explicitly estimate detection probability and density on a fine spatial scale, making our approach robust in the context of varying detection probabilities. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 17.08 (posterior SD 1.310) lions >1 year old/100 km², and the sex ratio was estimated at 2.2 females to 1 male. Our modeling framework and narrow posterior SD demonstrate that SECR methods can produce statistically rigorous and precise estimates of population parameters, and we argue that they should be favored over less reliable abundance indices. Furthermore, our approach is flexible enough to incorporate different data types, which enables robust population estimates over relatively short survey periods in a variety of systems. Trend analyses are essential to guide conservation decisions but are frequently based on surveys of differing reliability. We therefore call for a unified framework to assess lion numbers in key populations to improve management and policy decisions.     

Effects of publication bias on conservation planning

Conservation planners need reliable information on spatial patterns of biodiversity. However, existing data sets are skewed because some ecosystems, taxa, and locations are underrepresented. We determined how many articles have been published in recent decades on the biodiversity of different countries and their constituent provinces. We searched the Web of Science catalogues Science Citation Index (SCI) and Social Science Citation Index (SSCI) for biodiversity-related articles published from 1993 to 2016 that included country and province names. We combined data on research publication frequency with other provincial-scale factors hypothesized to affect the likelihood of research activity (i.e., economic development, human presence, infrastructure, and remoteness). Areas that appeared understudied relative to the biodiversity expected based on site climate likely have been inaccessible to researchers for reasons, notably armed conflict. Geographic publication bias is of most concern in the most remote areas of sub-Saharan Africa and South America. Our provincial-scale model may help compensate for publication biases in conservation planning by revealing the spatial extent of research needs and the low cost of redoing this analysis annually.     

长江口海域底栖生态环境质量评价——AMBI和M-AMBI法

AMBI(AZTI’s Marine Biotic Index)和M-AMBI(Multivariate-AMBI)指数可以有效地评价河口和近岸海域软底质海洋大型底栖动物群落对人为和自然扰动的响应.本研究根据2009年4月在长江口采集的大型底栖动物资料,首次在长江口海域同时运用栖息密度和生物量计算AMBI(BAMBI)和M-AMBI(M-BAMBI),对其进行底栖生态质量评价.结果表明,长江口底栖生态环境皆受到不同程度的干扰,其中受干扰最严重的区域集中在杭州湾、舟山及长江口门区附近海域,与该海域的陆源排污、富营养化以及大量的海岸工程建设等有密切的关系.单因素方差分析表明,运用栖息密度和生物量计算出的两个指数值,评价结果无明显的差异.与AMBI相比,M-AMBI与本研究生物群落结构参数以及环境因子的匹配度更高,能够更有效地评价长江口底栖生态环境质量.Pearson相关分析和一元线性回归分析表明,M-AMBI与底层水体的富营养化指数之间存在线性显著负相关关系,而与表层水体的呈非线性显著负相关;AMBI与富营养化指数之间却无显著相关关系,说明M-AMBI更适合指示长江口水域的富营养化压力.     

川东北低山丘陵区细颗粒物主要相关因素和季节变化分析——以南充主城区为例

基于中国空气质量在线监测分析平台和全球天气精准预报网的大气质量和气象数据,以四川盆地东北低山丘陵区典型城市南充市主城区为例,检验了细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))浓度的概率密度分布,发现其接近对数正态分布,由相关分析确定了PM_(2.5)浓度的主要相关因素为CO、NO_2(相关系数r分别为0.76、0.55,P0.01),再通过对2014年1月—2016年6月的日数据的逐步回归筛选出最优的回归指标和模拟方程(决定系数R_(adj)~2为0.68,P0.05),2016年7月—2017年6月的数据验证表明模拟效果较好(拟合优度为0.64,相对误差15.48%);最后根据时序插值、浓度和IAQI(PM_(2.5))的时段均值发现PM_(2.5)浓度在年际上有降低趋势;在季节上由高到低依次为冬季、春季、秋季、夏季;PM_(2.5)浓度在1月和6月分别呈现出年内的峰值和谷值,5、10月出现了阶段性峰值,尤其是5月;IAQI(PM_(2.5))的季节变化与浓度变化规律相似;且PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)比值的均值为0.67,表明现阶段南充市主城区大气污染物中细颗粒物占有较大比重。     

Investigation on the changes effected by tool profile on mechanical and tribological properties of friction stir processed AZ31B magnesium alloy

The present study investigates the effect of tool shoulder profile on the mechanical and tribological properties of friction stir processed AZ31B magnesium alloy. The tool rotational speed and feed rate are the chosen process parameters. The experiments were conducted with 3 level 2 factors full factorial design. The recorded responses were tensile strength, wear losses and corrosion rate. The results were analyzed with the help microstructures of the processed samples. The study reveals that, for concave shoulder tool, the strain hardening effect was playing a major role in determining the properties of the processed materials and for the step shoulder tool, the grain size plays a major role in determining the properties of the processed materials.     

贵州石漠化空间分布与喀斯特地貌、岩性、降水和人口密度的关系

本次研究从地貌发育的角度揭示了贵州省石漠化景观及其等级的空间分布与下垫面的物质组成和气候(降雨量)的空间变化存在着密切的联系,而与现今人类活动强度(人口密度)的空间分布不存在关联性。具体体现为:(1)贵州溶蚀为主地貌类型区和纯碳酸盐岩分布区基本一致,区内的峰丛(林)地貌主要分布于年降水量≥1200mm的威宁-毕节-贵阳-凯里一线以南的溶蚀为主地貌类型区,随着降水量由北向南逐渐增加,塔状峰丘增多;溶丘,峰丛(林)不发育地貌主要分布于年降水量≤1100mm的威宁-毕节以北的黔西北溶蚀为主地貌类型区和毕节-贵阳-凯里一线以北的溶蚀侵蚀地貌类型区,(2)贵州石漠化程度与喀斯特地貌类型空间分布的耦合关系较好,与人口密度空间分布的耦合关系不好。峰丛(林)地貌发育的威宁-毕节-贵阳-凯里一线以南的溶蚀为主地貌区,黔中地区人口密度为300～400/km2,该区一些县的石漠化,远不如黔西南地区人口密度为200～300/km2或黔南地区人口密度为100～200/km2的严重。历史时期森林植被的全面破坏是贵州喀斯特地区石漠化的主要驱动力,除荔波茂兰喀斯特森林保护区等少数地区,贵州喀斯特地区的原始森林无论是现在人口密度高的地区,还是低的地区,历史时期均已遭受全面的破坏。喀斯特坡地次生植被的恢复状况在很大程度上取决于坡地的岩土组成,现代石漠化严重程度的区域差异,主要受下垫面地面物质组成的控制,也就是"石山"的多寡。     

石化企业玻璃钢设施静电特性及安全使用

通过测试玻璃钢设施的静电参数,研究分析玻璃钢设施的静电特性,表明玻璃钢设施有较大的静电危险性,提出了一般防静电措施,预防玻璃钢设施的燃爆风险。     

机械式模拟运输台仿真研究

模拟运输振动试验台作为一种机械式随机振动模拟器,能够较好地再现汽车运输振动环境。针对模拟运输台在调试、使用时具有一定盲目性的问题,进行了运动学仿真。仿真结果与实测数据吻合良好,验证了模型建立的正确性,调整模拟运输台上可变参数进行一系列的仿真,总结这些参数对于最终结果影响的规律。仿真结果表明,模拟运输台的台面振动由系统自激振动和凸轮带动台面强迫振动复合而成;台面上功率谱密度的第一主峰主要和系统的自激振动有关,第二主峰主要和凸轮带动台面的强迫振动有关。     

干热河谷林地燥红土固碳特征及"新固定"碳表观稳定性

全球气候变化背景下,森林土壤固碳能力及所固定碳的稳定性受到极大关注.基于土壤密度分组和酸水解技术,对比研究了1991年营造的大叶相思(Acacia auriculiformis)林不同阶段(1991、1997、2003和2010年)土壤及其物理和生化组分中有机碳密度.结果表明,造林19 a后林地表层(0～15 cm)和亚表层(15～30 cm)土壤有机碳密度分别为1.40 kg.m-2和0.99kg.m-2.研究期内(1991～2010年)表层和亚表层土壤平均固碳速率分别为37.89 g.(m2.a)-1和16.84 g.(m2.a)-1,且土壤呈现加速固碳特征.2003年林地表层重组有机碳分配比例为71.44%,显著高于2010年(67.99%).2003年林地表层或亚表层轻组顽固性碳指数显著高于重组,但均随林龄的增加而降低,尤其是轻组顽固性碳指数.2003～2010年间燥红土"新固定"碳中57%～70%受物理保护,33%～49%为生化稳定性碳.研究揭示出干热河谷人工林燥红土具备较大的固碳能力.受物理保护碳的生化稳定性低于非保护碳,其稳定性均随林龄的增加而降低.