Effects of life‐history requirements on the distribution of a threatened reptile

Survival and reproduction are the two primary life‐history traits essential for species’ persistence; however, the environmental conditions that support each of these traits may not be the same. Despite this, reproductive requirements are seldom considered when estimating species’ potential distributions. We sought to examine potentially limiting environmental factors influencing the distribution of an oviparous reptile of conservation concern with respect to the species’ survival and reproduction and to assess the implications of the species’ predicted climatic constraints on current conservation practices. We used ecological niche modeling to predict the probability of environmental suitability for the alligator snapping turtle (Macrochelys temminckii). We built an annual climate model to examine survival and a nesting climate model to examine reproduction. We combined incubation temperature requirements, products of modeled soil temperature data, and our estimated distributions to determine whether embryonic development constrained the northern distribution of the species. Low annual precipitation constrained the western distribution of alligator snapping turtles, whereas the northern distribution was constrained by thermal requirements during embryonic development. Only a portion of the geographic range predicted to have a high probability of suitability for alligator snapping turtle survival was estimated to be capable of supporting successful embryonic development. Historic occurrence records suggest adult alligator snapping turtles can survive in regions with colder climes than those associated with consistent and successful production of offspring. Estimated egg‐incubation requirements indicated that current reintroductions at the northern edge of the species’ range are within reproductively viable environmental conditions. Our results highlight the importance of considering survival and reproduction when estimating species’ ecological niches, implicating conservation plans, and benefits of incorporating physiological data when evaluating species’ distributions.     

Dynamic failure assessment of an ammonia storage unit: A case study

Chemical Process Industries usually contain a diverse inventory of hazardous chemicals and complex systems required to perform process operations such as storage, separation, reaction, compression etc. The complex interactions between the equipment make them vulnerable to catastrophic accidents. Risk and failure assessment provide engineers with an intuitive tool for decision making in the operation of such plants. Abnormal events and near-miss situations occur regularly during the operation of a system. Accident Sequence Precursors (ASP) can be used to demonstrate the real-time operating condition of a plant. Dynamic Failure Assessment (DFA) methodology is based on Bayesian statistical methods incorporates ASP data to revise the generic failure probabilities of the systems during its operational lifetime.In this paper, DFA methodology is applied on an ammonia storage unit in a specialized chemical industry. Ammonia is stored in cold storage tanks as liquefied gas at atmospheric pressure. These tanks are susceptible to failures due to various abnormal conditions arising due process failures.Tank failures due to three such abnormal conditions are considered. Variation of the failure probability of the safety systems is demonstrated. The authors use ASP data collected from plant specific sources and safety expert judgement. The failure probabilities of some safety systems concerned show considerable deviation from the generic values. The method helps to locate the components which have undergone more degradation over the period and hence must be paid attention to. In addition, a Bayesian predictive model has been used to predict the number of abnormal events in the next time interval. The user-friendly and intuitive nature of the tool makes it appropriate for application in safety assessment reports in process industries.     

Risk assessment of offshore crude oil pipeline failure

Failure of Leak Detection System (LDS) to detect pipeline leakages or ruptures may result in drastic consequences that could lead to excessive financial losses. To minimize the occurrence of such failure, the functionality of the LDS and the integrity of the pipeline should be assessed on a priority basis. This paper presents an integrated risk-based assessment scheme to predict the failure and the failure consequences of offshore crude oil pipelines. To estimate risk, two important quantities have to be determined, the joint probability of failure of the pipeline and its LDS and the consequences of failure. Consequences incorporate the financial losses associated with environmental damage, oil spill cleanup and lost production. The assessment provides an estimate of the risk in monetary value and determines whether the estimated risk exceeds a predefined target risk. Moreover, the critical year for the asset can be determined. In essence, the outcome of the assessment facilitates an informed decision-making about the future of the asset.     

热盐腐蚀环境对TC11钛合金高温寿命影响规律试验研究

目的 针对发动机钛合金部件在热盐环境与工作载荷下的寿命衰减问题，开展TC11钛合金热盐腐蚀疲劳与应力腐蚀试验，研究腐蚀环境下TC11的高温寿命衰减规律与失效机理。方法 利用喷盐法制备TC11钛合金试验件，研究不同温度与应力水平对TC11腐蚀疲劳以及应力腐蚀的影响规律。利用SEM等观测手段，开展腐蚀疲劳以及应力腐蚀试样断口与表面的形貌分析，分析腐蚀环境下的失效机理。结果 热盐腐蚀环境导致TC11的寿命显著降低，对比450 ℃下无腐蚀寿命，腐蚀疲劳寿命下降了2个数量级，应力腐蚀寿命下降到不足1%，且分散性较大。观察腐蚀疲劳和应力腐蚀的试样可以发现，表面有明显的腐蚀坑，腐蚀坑底发现裂纹。结论 热盐环境下，TC11腐蚀疲劳寿命和应力腐蚀寿命都会明显下降。由于腐蚀导致钛合金试样表面产生许多腐蚀坑，在腐蚀坑局部形成近似缺口，缺口部位的应力集中是导致腐蚀疲劳寿命衰减的重要因素。腐蚀疲劳的寿命低于Kt=1的无腐蚀疲劳寿命，但是要大于Kt=3的无腐蚀疲劳寿命。     

MATHEMATICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE TOCCOA FALLS,GEORGIA, DAM-BREAK FLOOD1

ABSTRACT: Four dam-break models were selected for testing with an observed data set from the November 6, 1977, disaster at Toccoa Falls, Georgia. The Kelly Barnes Dam failure occurred with a 35-ft head of water and produced a peak discharge of 23,000 ft³/s. The selected models included: (1) Modified Puls (MP), (2) U. S. Army Corps of Engineers Gradually Varied Unsteady Flow Profiles (USTFLO), (3) National Weather Service's Dam-Break Flood Forecast (DBFF), and (4) U. S. Geological Survey's method of characteristics (MOC) coupled with a general purpose streamflow simulation (J879DB). Achieving a successful simulation was easiest with the MP model. The DBFF model required a moderate effort while the MOC-J879DB models required some data alterations and considerable effort. The USTFLO model failed to simulate this test case. In the stream segment near the dam, the computed peak stages were generally within 5 feet of the observed high water marks. Elsewhere, the peak stage results were much better, generally within 2 feet. The peak discharges computed by the models were generally within 20 percent of discharges estimated by slope area and contracted opening measurements, except near the dam where the MOC-J879DB model's results was 80 percent too high.     

危险评价中的数据环境

本文通过分析危险评价的数据来源、数据的准确程度和危险评价模型，论述了数据环境与危险评价的关系，指出了数据的不确切必然会影响到危险评价质量，但应用数据进行危险评价是完全必要的。关键是如何提高数据的精确程度和模型的真实程度，使评价结果更趋准确、可靠。     

电子安全监控系统(PES)失效与控制

随着电子安全监控系统(PES)的日益广泛应用,其系统自身的安全保护已成为安全科技最前沿的问题之一.本文论述了PES在安全系统中的主要应用领域,分析了PES出现故障和失误的原因主要分为硬件故障、系统失误和管理缺陷三大类,提出了建立PES安全保护系统的技术路线和提高系统可靠性的技术措施.建议我国从标准化的角度深入开展电子安全监控系统的安全性研究.     

锅炉转动机械运行故障的分析与判断

结合典型实例介绍了在锅炉运行中判断给水泵、风机等转动机械故障及基本分析方法和处理方法，亦即根据运行中转动机械的故障特征，通过听、看、摸、闻，去检查寻找运行故障中的表面现象，来确定故障部位、原因并处理。     

皮带运输机的故障原因与安全防范措施

重点分析了皮带运输机在生产过程中容易发生故障的原因 ,并针对原因提出了不同的防范措施     

雷达吸波复合材料外观失效机理分析及控制方法研究

目的 解决多层泡沫夹芯结构的雷达吸波复合材料在环境效应下产生外观失效的问题。方法 制备3种类型的雷达吸波复合材料,开展典型自然环境试验。观察试验样品外观状态,并检测变形量。通过观察泡沫的微观组织形貌,检测热膨胀量变化及泡沫与树脂间的粘黏强度,用气相色谱质谱联用仪GCMS检测复合材料裂解气体成分,分析复合材料外观失效成因,并提出解决技术途径。结果 6个月自然环境试验后,1#、2#样品外观失效,而3#样品无明显变化。复合材料100℃裂解气体成分为氮气、二氯一氟乙烷、甲基膦酸二甲脂。4种泡沫在22～85℃的最大热膨胀量分别为–0.18%、–0.37%、–0.30%、–0.45%。环氧树脂与4种泡沫的粘黏强度在41～52N,而聚氨酯树脂达到了54～81N。结论 雷达吸波复合材料泡孔内残留气体的释放,是导致外观失效的根本原因。通过热处理工艺,减少样品残留气体量,并提升胶黏剂与泡沫的粘黏复合强度,是提升复合材料环境适应性的有效技术途径。