城市燃气铸铁管道的风险辨识与评价模型

对城市燃气管道在运行过程中的风险因素进行了辨识,讨论了铸铁管道风险的特殊性。根据故障树分析法、层次分析法与专家调查法对风险因素进行分析评判,建立了城市燃气铸铁管道风险评价的失效可能性模型。     

水改气海底管道输送高压天然气可行性研究

为了满足油气输送需求,现将一输水管线改输高压天然气,需对该管线改输的可行性进行研究论证,通过ANSYS建模分析得到腐蚀缺陷处在475MPa高压下所受到的最大等效应力小于管道的设计抗力2736MPa,满足安全标准。利用OLGA模拟出管道输送高压天然气时的压力和温度曲线满足实际工况要求,OLGA模拟出的预测腐蚀速率最大处为004mm/y,对管道的剩余寿命影响较小。应用DNV腐蚀因素失效概率模型计算得到该管道的失效概率小于15×10-3,安全等级介于“一般”和“很高”之间。经研究论证得该管道改输高压天然     

Are energy efficiency standards justified?

This paper develops an analytical framework for comparing the welfare effects of energy efficiency standards and pricing policies for reducing gasoline, electricity, and nationwide carbon emissions. The model is parameterized with US data and includes key externalities in the energy/transportation sectors and possible underinvestment in energy efficiency due to “misperceptions” over energy savings. Even with large misperceptions, the extra welfare gains from complementing efficient pricing policies with energy efficiency standards are zero for reducing gasoline and 5 percent for reducing electricity. And when viewed as substitutes, these standards forgo 60 percent or more of the potential welfare gains from corresponding pricing policies. A combination of energy efficiency and emissions standards is more than three times as costly as carbon pricing when there is no misperception over energy savings, and even with large misperceptions, combining carbon pricing with gasoline/electricity taxes is better than combining it with energy efficiency standards.     

异质环境下入侵植物薇甘菊的适应性与繁殖特性

薇甘菊（Mikaniamicrantha H.B.Kunth）为世界上最具有入侵性和危害性的外来入侵物种之一,对其控制与管理已成为长期以来世界性难题。了解入侵植物薇甘菊在异质环境下的适应性与繁殖特性对安全有效预警、监测和防治该入侵物种具有重要意义。本文于薇甘菊盛花期,根据薇甘菊入侵生境的光照条件、群落结构和生长方式差异,在薇甘菊常见的4种入侵生境（林地、荒地、农田和和河边）选取10个样地,调查研究了不同生境条件下薇甘菊的开花结实和繁殖分配,并运用植物叶片功能性状的研究方法研究了不同生境条件下薇甘菊的比叶面积（SLA）、叶干物质比例（LMF）和茎干物质比例（SMF）的3种叶片功能性状。研究结果表明,生境条件对薇甘菊的开花结实和繁殖分配具有显著影响。其中抛荒农田（样地Ⅷ）和河流边缘（样地Ⅸ和Ⅹ）薇甘菊的总花数、种子量、生殖枝茎生物量分配和花生物量分配均显著大于其他生境,显示在有利于其生长的条件下,薇甘菊种群倾向于有性繁殖;而在不利于薇甘菊生长的低光照林地（样地Ⅰ）和种间竞争强的农田红薯地（样地Ⅵ）生境条件下,薇甘菊的总花数和种子量明显小于其他生境,但营养枝叶生物量分配显著大于其他样地,而茎生物量分配值则处于中间值,表明在不利于其生长的生境条件下,薇甘菊通过提高营养枝茎的生物量分配和叶的生物量分配来适应,其种群则更倾向于克隆繁殖。通过分析不同生境条件下薇甘菊的叶片功能性状,结果表明,在不利于薇甘菊生长的低光照林地（样地Ⅰ）和种间竞争强的农田红薯地（样地Ⅵ）生境条件下,薇甘菊的叶面积和茎干物质比例（SMF）显著小于其他样地,且彼此差异不显著;但比叶面积（SLA）和叶干物质比例（LMF）则显著大于其他样地,显示薇甘?     

广州市某A2/O工艺城镇污水处理厂出水对大型溞的生殖毒性作用

城镇污水处理厂废水中存在大量生物毒性物质,但该废水对动物的生殖能力影响研究还十分缺乏。利用大型溞暴露实验,检测广州市某采用A~2/O工艺的城镇污水处理厂出水的急性毒性和生殖毒性。48 h急性毒性实验表明,所有水样均未表现出急性毒性效应。慢性生殖毒性(14 d)测试结果表明:(1)从进水到缺氧池出水均能显著提高第一胎产溞数量;(2)进水和沉砂池出水显著增加受试期总产溞数量;(3)从厌氧池到出水工艺段受试溞的第一胎产溞时间均推后;(4)好氧池出水的毒性显著降低,但仍然对大型溞具有生殖毒性。研究表明,好氧池(A~2/O)工艺能够显著去除具有大型溞生殖毒性的物质,但污水处理厂废水的生殖毒性仍需要引起关注。     

基于网络模拟的岩体边坡稳定性概率分析

介绍了基于网络模拟的岩体边坡潜在滑动面随机搜索及其破坏概率计算的基本原理和实现过程。首先通过统计分析得到岩体边坡结构的统计性质参数及分布的密度函数,应用蒙特卡洛方法,采用随机参数模拟生成边坡岩体的结构面网络模型;然后以结构面网络模型为基础,在研究岩体边坡断裂失稳问题中,结合优势面理论,并考虑岩桥破坏机理,建立了新的使用动态规划方法寻求潜在滑动面及破坏概率计算的随机模拟技术,完成了相应计算程序。     

Toxic effects of realgar transforming solution on the reproduction of Caenorhabditis elegans

Realgar transforming solution is an arsenic formulation which has shown anticancer effects with low toxicity both in vivo and in vitro. In this study, Caenorhabditis elegans was used to evaluate its reproductive toxicity and its possible mechanisms. Realgar transforming solution decreased the brood size and induced proliferation arrest and apoptosis significantly only at an elemental concentration of 37.5 mg/L, while arsenic trioxide reduced the brood sizes and induced proliferation arrest and apoptosis of both the wild type N2 and let-60 ras(gf) mutant worms in an arsenic concentration dependent manner. Mitogen-activated protein kinase and protein p53 pathways may be involved in reproductive toxicity as evidenced by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction, RNA interference, and inhibition experiments with mitogen-activated protein kinases and p53. In conclusion, realgar transforming solution at the low arsenic (As) concentrations showed lower reproductive toxicity than arsenic trioxide, and a different molecular mechanism of reproductive toxicity is suggested.     

Practical evaluation for water utilities in China by using analytic hierarchy process

The risk of water utilities would include the water quality failure and the water quantity failure, from the source to the tap, including the catchment, treatment, distribution and the customer plumbing system. In this paper, we proposed a practical evaluation method based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The hierarchical structure of the water utilities was established in terms of the fault event analysis from the past failure accidents. The severity of criteria was preset by the experts and the probability of criteria was determined by a modified CUWA-TSM sheet with the consideration of the actual situations of the supply system. The evaluation model was successfully performed by a case study. Although, the method in this paper may not be as good as the framework of WSPs, it has a great advantage compared to WSPs and TSM. The risk management can be applied through specific software packages with a user-friendly interface, which means it is easier to implement. In addition, it can point out the critical control points (CCPs) for the decision-makers. So we believe this method will improve and play a more and more active role in the development of the risk management in China water works.     

海狗油脂肪乳对大鼠围产期毒性试验的研究

观察了海狗油脂肪乳对大鼠妊娠晚期、分娩期、哺乳期及胚胎和胎仔出生后生长发育、学习能力以及生殖能力的影响.于大鼠妊娠D15至哺乳D21,连续皮下注射给予250、500和1000mg·kg-1剂量的海狗油脂肪乳,同时设0.9%氯化钠注射液为对照组,观察各组大鼠和胎仔的生长、发育、生殖能力等项指标.结果表明:给药后F0代母鼠体重增长明显减慢,摄食量显著减少,未见生殖、胚胎毒性反应;F1代仔鼠的出生体重和哺乳期体重增长减慢,生理达标、新生反射等发育迟缓;停药后F1代大鼠的体重增长、摄食量、脏器系数、同笼交配率、妊娠率及胚胎发育全过程未见明显生殖、发育等毒性变化.由此结论,海狗油脂肪乳可使母鼠和F1代仔鼠体重增长缓慢,生理发育迟缓,但不影响F1代仔鼠器官发育、生殖能力以及停药后体重增长和摄食量.     

接管高应变区缺陷的安全评定概率方法研究

随着计算机技术飞速发展,Ｍｏｎｔｅ Ｃａｒｌｏ 法在压力容器可靠性分析中得到广泛应用。但对于小概率情形,利用直接抽样的Ｍｏｎｔｅ Ｃａｒｌｏ 法进行失效概率计算,费用较高。为此,笔者提出了几种新的失效概率近似计算方法,并以压力容器接管为例,对其断裂失效概率进行了计算,同时还和直接抽样的Ｍｏｎｔｅ Ｃａｒｌｏ 法的计算数值进行了比较。结果表明,新的失效概率近似计算方法具有精度高、节省机时的优点。