民机非包容性转子失效危害防护设计研究

民用飞机的发动机转子非包容性失效给飞机的安全运行带来巨大的风险,为了将这种转子非包容性失效可能带来的危害降至最小,需要合理的评估碎片的危害水平,以及采取合理的安全预防措施。尽管在FAA(Federal Aviation Administration)用于评估碎片危害水平的UEDDAM(Uncontained Engine Debris Damage Analysis Model)软件工具中采用了加强防护设计以减少碎片危害,但是没有对具体的分析流程和碎片能量衰减的计算模型进行说明。为此,在现有的碎片危害分析方法的基础上,考虑到碎片在侵彻过程中会有能量衰减,分析了降低碎片危害的三种安全预防措施,通过对比确定了加强防护设计对于降低碎片危害的重要意义及其分析的流程。通过对飞机结构中关键区域定义的理解,明确了在飞机的不同部位需要采取不同的加强防护设计,并详细介绍了整体加强防护设计和局部加强防护设计的流程。     

Applying the Declining Population Paradigm: Diagnosing Causes of Poor Reproduction in the Marbled Murrelet

Abstract:  We identified six approaches to diagnosing causes of population declines and illustrate the use of the most general one ("multiple competing hypotheses") to determine which of three candidate limiting factors—food availability, nesting site availability, and nest predation—were responsible for the exceptionally poor reproduction of Marbled Murrelets (  Brachyramphus marmoratus ) in central California. We predicted how six attributes of murrelet demography, behavior, and physiology should be affected by the candidate limiting factors and tested predictions with field data collected over 2 years. The average proportion of breeders, as estimated with radiotelemetry, was low (0.31) and varied significantly between years: 0.11 in 2000 and 0.50 in 2001. Murrelets spent significantly more time foraging in 2000 than in 2001, suggesting that low food availability limited breeding in 2000. In 2001, 50% of radio-marked murrelets nested and 67% of females were in breeding condition, suggesting that enough nest sites existed for much of the population to breed. However, rates of nest failure and nest predation were high (0.84 and 0.67–0.81, respectively) and few young were produced, even when a relatively high proportion of murrelets bred. Thus, we suggest that reproduction of Marbled Murrelets in central California is limited by food availability in some years and by nest predation in others, but apparently is not limited by availability of nesting sites. The multiple-competing-hypotheses approach provides a rigorous framework for identifying causes of population declines because it integrates multiple types of data sets and can incorporate elements of other commonly used approaches.     

The Impact of Increased Environmental Stochasticity Due to Climate Change on the Dynamics of Asiatic Wild Ass

Abstract:  Theory proposes that increased environmental stochasticity negatively impacts population viability. Thus, in addition to the directional changes predicted for weather parameters under global climate change (GCC), the increase in variance of these parameters may also have a negative effect on biodiversity. As a case study, we assessed the impact of interannual variance in precipitation on the viability of an Asiatic wild ass ( Equus hemionus ) population reintroduced in Makhtesh Ramon Nature Reserve, Israel. We monitored the population from 1985 to 1999 to determine what environmental factors affect reproductive success. Annual precipitation during the year before conception, drought conditions during gestation, and population size determined reproductive success. We used the parameters derived from this model to assess population performance under various scenarios in a Leslie matrix type model with demographic and environmental stochasticity. Specifically, we used a change in the precipitation regime in our study area to formulate a GCC scenario and compared the simulated dynamics of the population with a no-change scenario. The coefficient of variation in population size under the global change scenario was 30% higher than under the no-change scenario. Minor die-offs (≥15%) following droughts increased extinction probability nearly 10-fold. Our results support the idea that an increase in environmental stochasticity due to GCC may, in itself, pose a significant threat to biodiversity.     

低剂量长期铅暴露对雄性黑斑蛙精巢组织关键酶活性的影响

在实验条件下,将健康的性成熟雄性黑斑蛙暴露于0.1、0.2、0.4、0.8和1.6mg·L-1的Pb2+溶液中30d,以Ca2+-ATP酶、Na+-K+-ATP酶、Ca2+-Mg2+-ATP酶、β-葡萄糖醛酸苷酶(β-DG)、乳酸脱氢酶(LDH)和酸性磷酸酶(ACP)活性为指标,进行了长期铅暴露对雄性黑斑蛙生殖毒性的研究.结果表明:随着铅染毒剂量的增加,Ca2+-ATP酶和Na+-K+-ATP酶活性被诱导,Ca2+-Mg2+-ATP酶活性被抑制,当Ca2+-Mg2+-ATP酶的抑制程度超过Ca2+-ATP酶和Na+-K+-ATP酶的代偿机制时,会抑制精子的发生,进而导致雄性生殖毒性;在1.6mg·L-1Pb2+处理下,ACP酶被显著抑制,提示支持细胞受损,精子总数受到影响;在0.4mg·L-1Pb2+处理下,LDH酶被显著抑制,提示生精细胞受损,精子质量受到影响.     

直升机机载产品环境鉴定试验故障分析

目的探究机载产品在鉴定试验阶段故障频发的原因,并改进机载产品研制流程中的不足之处。方法收集某型直升机机载产品50项环境鉴定试验故障,并对环境试验故障进行分析。结果环境试验故障主要为三防及振动试验故障,其故障发生的原因主要为材料及表面处理方法选用不当、设计缺陷和质量控制程序不够严格。结论针对该分析结果提出机载产品在设计过程中,需要通过尽早安排环境研制性试验、建立环境数据库、模拟仿真进行环境适应性设计和加强质量管理等措施,避免机载产品在鉴定试验阶段故障频发的问题。     

小子样成败型产品可靠性评估方法研究

介绍了一种小子样成败型产品可靠性评估方法。基于"计量评估"理论原则,针对可用于评价产品的特征量的试验数据,依次运用了数据样本子样的概率分布拟合检验方法、样本数据的一致性检验和离群值识别等统计学方法,最终使用经检验的特征量试验数据完成产品的可靠性评估。使用实例数据,应用评估方法,完成了一类典型产品的可靠性评估,其中特别指出的是,在实际应用过程中,应该尤其关注离群值的识别和剔除。实例证明,此方法可用于特征量明确的小子样成败型产品的可靠性评估。     

Female sex pheromone of Ostrinia orientalis – throwing a light on the relationship between O. orientalis and the European corn borer, O. nubilalis

Summary. The sex pheromone of Ostrinia orientalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) was analyzed by gas chromatography–electroantennographic detection (GC–EAD), GC–mass spectrometry and a series of bioassays. Three EAD-active compounds were detected in the female sex pheromone gland extract, and identified as tetradecyl acetate (14:OAc), (Z)-11-tetradecenyl acetate (Z11-14:OAc) and (E)-11-tetradecenyl acetate (E11-14:OAc). The titers (ratio) of 14:OAc, Z11-14:OAc and E11-14:OAc in 3-day-old virgin females were 0.49 ng (10), 4.86 ng (98) and 0.10 ng (2), respectively. In a wind-tunnel bioassay, the 98:2 blend of Z11- and E11-14:OAc, but not Z11-14:OAc alone, elicited the same male behavioral responses as virgin females and crude gland extracts. 14:OAc was inactive by itself, and did not show any synergistic effect on the binary blend. Field trapping experiments also confirmed the attractiveness of the binary blend to O. orientalis males. Based on these results, we concluded that the sex pheromone of O. orientalis is a 98:2 mixture of Z11-14:OAc and E11-14:OAc. This sex pheromone is very similar to that of the Z-type European corn borer, O. nubilalis. The present finding raises the question of whether O. orientalis , which is indistinguishable from O. nubilalis based on external morphology, is a biologically distinct species independent from O. nubilalis.     

Catastrophic Reproductive Failure, Terrestrial Survival, and Persistence of the Marbled Salamander

Abstract:  Wide variation in reproductive success is common among amphibians that breed in seasonal ponds, but persistence of adults can buffer against these fluctuations, particularly for long-lived species. We hypothesized that the frequent episodes of catastrophic failure of the marbled salamander ( Ambystoma opacum ) enhance the importance of high terrestrial survival. At Rainbow Bay in South Carolina reproductive success was poor (<1 metamorph/breeding female) in nearly half of the 22 years that the species bred. Complete failure occurred in 6 of 22 years. To study catastrophic failure, we adapted an age-structured, individual-based model with density-dependent growth and survival of larvae. The model was based on extensive data from local field studies and experiments. With consistently good survival in the pond stages, the simulated population required survival probabilities in the upland stages (juveniles and adults) near 0.5/year to persist and near 0.8/year to achieve the increases observed. Catastrophic failure, occurring randomly with probability 0.5/year, created additional fluctuations in the population, raised the thresholds of survival required for persistence, and caused extinction under conditions that were otherwise favorable. The marbled salamander at Rainbow Bay is not at great risk of extinction because of catastrophic failure, but the risk increases dramatically if life span is decreased or frequency of failure is increased. Any reduction in terrestrial survival will have deleterious consequences by reducing the breeding populations at equilibrium, even if it does not jeopardize persistence. Our model provides assessments of risk that can be applied to poorly studied species with similar life histories, such as the endangered flatwoods salamander ( A. cingulatum ).     

The Reproductive Capacity of Plants in a Gradient of Chemical Environmental Pollution

The reproductive capacity of Taraxacum officinale s.l. (two morphological forms: T. off. f. dahlstedtii Lindb. fil. and T. off. f. pectinatiforme Lindb. fil.) under conditions of chemical environmental pollution was studied in years differing in weather conditions. The number of generative shoots in plants increased along the toxic load gradient, which led to an increase in the total number of seeds and the weight of filled seeds. The relative energy value of seeds was determined from the amount of plastic substances in them. The number of seeds was shown to increase at a considerably higher rate than the energy expenditures for the formation of each seed. A general principle was revealed that determines the energy expenditures for the formation of a normal seed in both T. officinale forms under different weather conditions and under the chemical pollution of the environment.     

Corrosion failure probability analysis of buried gas pipelines based on subset simulation

Corrosion is the main reason for the failure of buried gas pipelines. For effective corrosion failure probability analysis, the structural reliability theory was adopted in this study to establish two calculation models for pipeline corrosion failure: the pressure failure model and von Mises stress failure model. Then, two calculation models for the corrosion failure probability were established based on a corrosion depth growth model obtained from actual survey data of soil corrosion characteristics. In an example, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and subset simulation (SS) were used to analyze the corrosion failure probability of pipelines, and the results were compared. SS can compensate for the shortcomings of MCS as it has higher computational efficiency and accuracy. Therefore, SS was adopted to simulate variations in the corrosion failure probability of buried pipelines with the service time for the two failure probability calculation models, which were applied to a natural gas pipeline located in a chemical industry park in Zhuhai, China. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on the relevant parameters that affect the failure probability. The results showed that multiple loads caused by the covering soil, residual stress, temperature differential, and bending stress have a non-negligible effect on the pipeline reliability. The corrosion coefficients gradually become the most important factors that affect the failure probability with increased service time. The proposed methodology considers the actual operating conditions of pipelines to provide a reliable theoretical basis for integrity management.