SOCIAL CLASS DIFFERENCES IN RESERVOIR VISITS1

ABSTRACT: Previous research provides evidence of a socioeconomic bias in outdoor recreational participation. One explanation of this bias is that socioeconomic groups have differential opportunities to participate, with the “costs” of this participation especially serving to restrict the recreational access of lower class persons living in urban areas. Using driving distance as a measure of cost, this study assessed the effects of travel costs on the attendance of three social class groups from an urban population at rural reservoir facilities. Findings support the contention that, while increased driving distance has a dampening effect on recreational participation, this effect is most pronounced for the lower class person. These findings point to the importance of equity considerations in the planning of outdoor recreational facilities.     

梯级水库群环境风险分析

为提高梯级水库群环境风险管理水平,加强流域生态环境保护,以溪洛渡-向家坝梯级水库为研究对象,基于灾害系统理论和系统动力学,对溪洛渡-向家坝梯级水库环境风险进行了系统梳理,辨识了梯级水库环境风险承载体、风险源、风险诱因,分析了环境风险传递机理,采用贝叶斯理论进行库区水体藻类爆发概率计算。结果表明:溪洛渡-向家坝梯级水库环境风险通过水流、电流、系统动力学流进行传播,并会影响到电站机组和水工建筑物的安全,由于水动力减弱和库区污染物排放,导致库区水体藻类爆发概率为2.42%,死鱼概率为1.21%,在此基础上,绘制环境风险传递拓扑图,并提出相应的环境风险管控措施。     

REGRESSION MODELS OF HERBICIDE CONCENTRATIONS IN OUTFLOW FROM RESERVOIRS IN THE MIDWESTERN USA, 1992–19931

ABSTRACT: Reservoirs are used to store water for public water supply, flood control, irrigation, recreation, hydropower, and wildlife habitat, but also often store undesirable substances such as herbicides. The outflow from 76 reservoirs in the midwestern USA, was sampled four times in 1992 and four times in 1993. At least one herbicide was detected in 82.6 percent of all samples, and atrazine was detected in 82.1 percent of all samples. Herbicide properties; topography, land use, herbicide use, and soil type in the contributing drainage area; residence time of water in reservoirs; and timing of inflow, release, and rainfall all can affect the concentration of herbicides in reservoirs. A GIS was used to quantify characteristics of land use, agricultural chemical use, climatic conditions, topographic character, and soil type by reservoir drainage basins. Multiple linear and logistic regression equations were used to model mean herbicide concentrations in reservoir outflow as a function of these characteristics. Results demonstrate a strong association between mean herbicide concentrations in reservoir outflow and herbicide use rates within associated drainage basins. Results also demonstrate the importance of including soils and basin hydrologic characteristics in models used to estimate mean herbicide concentrations.     

Management and Limnology Interact to Drive Water Temperature Patterns in a Middle Rockies River‐Reservoir System

This study seeks to improve understanding of temperature patterns in reservoir outflows. We examined water temperatures in an irrigation storage reservoir, Island Park Reservoir, and its outflow, Henry’s Fork of the Snake River in eastern Idaho. Our objectives were to (1) quantify the extent to which daily temperature ranges in the reservoir outflow deviated from other reaches of the Henry’s Fork, and (2) test whether the reservoir’s net volume change during the summer — expressed as the volume of water remaining in the reservoir on September 1 — predicted mean summer temperature in the outflow. Two years of temperature data showed dampened diel temperature cycles in the reservoir outflow. Model selection with 17 years of climatic, hydrologic, and reservoir management variables found mean summer temperature in the outflow was best predicted by September 1 reservoir volume and average summer air temperature. Two years of weekly reservoir thermal profiles indicated large changes in reservoir volume eliminated cool hypolimnetic water and encouraged mixing, allowing warm epilimnetic water to be discharged into the outflow. Increases in future drought frequency and severity and increases in summer air temperatures could increase the frequency of occurrence of high mean summertime water temperatures in the outflow. Our study provides important information for local managers by quantifying influences on outflow temperatures and the downstream river ecosystem.     

Evaluation of SWAT Impoundment Modeling Methods in Water and Sediment Simulations

Worldwide studies show 80%–90% of all sediments eroded from watersheds is trapped within river networks such as reservoirs, ponds, and wetlands. To represent the impact of impoundments on sediment routing in watershed modeling, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) developers recommend to model reservoirs, ponds, and wetlands using impoundment tools (ITs). This study evaluates performance of SWAT ITs in the modeling of a small, agricultural watershed dominated by lakes and wetlands. The study demonstrates how to incorporate impoundments into the SWAT model, and discusses and evaluates involved parameters. The study then recommends an appropriate calibration sequence, i.e., landscape parameters calibration, followed by pond/wetlands calibration, then channel parameter calibrations, and lastly, reservoir parameter calibration. Results of this study demonstrate not following SWAT recommendation regarding modeling water land use as an impoundment depreciates SWAT performance, and may lead to misplaced calibration efforts and model over‐calibration. Further, the chosen method to model impoundments’ outflow significantly impacts sediment loads in the watershed, while streamflow simulation is not very sensitive. This study also allowed calculation of mass accumulation rates in modeled impoundments where the annual mass accumulation rate in wetlands (2.3 T/ha/yr) was 39% higher than mass accumulation rate in reservoirs (1.4 T/ha/yr).     

Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.     

亚热带水库沉积物钻孔中有机质的历史记录及其环境意义

氢指数(HI)是重要的有机质评价参数,能够反映沉积有机质中脂肪大分子物质的相对含量,并用于反演水生生态系统的历史初级生产力,有助于研究藻类生产力对污染物的富集作用。为了探讨氢指数的环境指示作用,选择了亚热带的3座水库作为研究对象,采用Rock-Eval热解与生物标志物-中性糖方法相结合的研究技术,研究了沉积钻孔有机质的来源与特征;并结合210Pb和137Cs定年技术,综合运用氢指数和总糖含量对水库的初级生产力进行了重建。结果表明:中富营养的增塘和联安水库沉积有机质主要来源于浮游藻类,且受降解的程度较小,而贫营养的新丰江水库钻孔下层有机质主要是受降解作用或陆源高等植物等的影响。近年来,3个水库的HI值都有显著性的增加,且与其对应的总糖含量以及近50年来的滑动平均温度都高度的相关,说明这些水库都经历了气候变暖所引起的初级生产力增长。同时,升高的水库生产力扩大了沉积物剖面中重金属和多环芳烃的累积。     

粤北2座饮用水源地水库的富营养化与浮游植物群落动态

粤北地区的水库以山地型水库为主,其中有不少担负着饮用水源的功能。为了解粤北地区水源地水库的富营养化状态与浮游植物种群的动态变化,于2011年的枯水期（2―3月）和丰水期（6―7月）对花山和白水礤2座中型水库进行了采样调查,对水库的营养盐和浮游植物种群进行了分析。结果表明：2座水库均为贫营养型;浮游植物在枯水期和丰水期的种类变化不大,共鉴定出的浮游植物6门37种（属）,以硅藻为主要优势种群,优势种为小环藻（Cyclotella sp.）和颗粒直链藻（Melosira granulata）。同时,枯水期和丰水期2座水库浮游植物的丰度和生物量都比较低,其值分别为0.65×106～1.95×106cells.L-1、0.11 mg.L-1和0.73×106～8.9×106cells.L-1、0.05～0.50 mg.L-1。在浮游植物种群动态中,2座水库浮游植物丰度和生物量的季节变化主要表现为硅藻丰度和生物量的变化,低浓度的氮、磷营养盐限制是影响这2座贫营养水库浮游植物动态变化主要因素。     

南水北调东线山东境内调蓄湖库蓝藻种群分布特征及环境驱动因子

为掌握南水北调东线山东境内调蓄湖库在工程运行前后蓝藻种群的分布情况及其环境驱动因子,于2010～2019年的5～11月对南四湖、东平湖、大屯水库、东湖水库和双王城水库进行藻类和水环境调查.共检出浮游蓝藻44种,其中丝状蓝藻23种.湖泊假鱼腥藻、拉氏拟柱孢藻、铜绿微囊藻和惠氏微囊藻在各调蓄湖库的检出频次和密度均较高,是主要有害蓝藻种.通过分析各调蓄湖库蓝藻种群的分布特征,发现丝状蓝藻在水力扰动较大水体中的生长优势较为明显,应成为日后调蓄湖库蓝藻风险防控的重点.Pearson相关性分析和广义线性拟合曲线结果显示,总氮、总磷、水温和水深是影响调蓄湖库主要有害蓝藻种生长的主要环境驱动因子.氮磷营养盐对于有害蓝藻种的生长具有显著的促进作用.湖泊假鱼腥藻具有良好的温度适应性,在夏初秋末仍能成为优势种,而当水温大于25℃时,拉氏拟柱孢藻、铜绿微囊藻和惠氏微囊藻具明显的生长优势.此外,较小的水深更利于拉氏拟柱孢藻的生长.建议在加强控制湖库氮磷营养盐输入的基础上,在夏初和秋末对湖泊假鱼腥藻进行重点监控,并在高温时期密切关注浅水区拉氏拟柱孢藻的生长情况,保障水质安全.     

江苏水源地型水库异味物质发生风险及影响因素

为认知水源地型水库异味发生风险及其规律,本研究于异味风险高危期(夏季),对江苏17个省级水源地型水库开展了水质、浮游生物和异味物质状况调查.结果表明,本次调查的17个水库普遍存在富营养化程度偏高(如藻类生物量偏大和水体透明度偏低)的问题,约三分之一的水库出现部分水层异味物质2-甲基异莰醇(MIB)浓度超标,MIB平均浓度为(13. 7±20. 7) ng·L-1,表明江苏省水库型水源地普遍存在MIB风险;多个水库检出土臭素(GSM),但其浓度均没有超过10ng·L-1的饮用水标准浓度(最大浓度为4. 6 ng·L-1);同步水质调查及统计分析表明,MIB浓度和水体叶绿素a浓度、水体透明度、悬浮颗粒物浓度、富营养化指数等重要水质指标及浮游植物生物量(特别是蓝藻生物量)相关性显著(P 0. 05),其中MIB与叶绿素a、富营养化指数呈极显著的相关关系(P 0. 01).因此,水源地型水库的异味物质风险与水库的富营养化密切相关;实施营养盐外源输入削减、提高流域植被覆盖度、科学调控渔业养殖规模等水体富营养化控制措施是水库异味物质控制的关键.