Uncertainty, learning, and the optimal management of wildlife

Wildlife management is limited by uncontrolled and often unrecognized environmental variation, by limited capabilities to observe and control animal populations, and by a lack of understanding about the biological processes driving population dynamics. In this paper I describe a comprehensive framework for management that includes multiple models and likelihood values to account for structural uncertainty, along with stochastic factors to account for environmental variation, random sampling, and partial controllability. Adaptive optimization is developed in terms of the optimal control of incompletely understood populations, with the expected value of perfect information measuring the potential for improving control through learning. The framework for optimal adaptive control is generalized by including partial observability and non-adaptive, sample-based updating of model likelihoods. Passive adaptive management is derived as a special case of constrained adaptive optimization, representing a potentially efficient suboptimal alternative that nonetheless accounts for structural uncertainty.     

Is Current Consumption Excessive? A General Framework and Some Indications for the United States

Abstract:  Many prior studies have explored the implications of human population growth and environmentally problematic technologies for biodiversity loss and other forms of environmental degradation. Relatively few, however, have examined the impacts of the level and composition of consumption. We offer a framework that shows how the level and composition of a society's total consumption relate to the uses of various forms of capital and to the sustainability of natural resources and human well-being. We relate the framework to two main approaches—top–down macro studies and bottom–up computer models—for measuring whether overall consumption in the United States satisfies a sustainability requirement. Existing top–down studies have shortcomings that bias their results toward optimism, and current computer simulation models, although strong on revealing biophysical outcomes, are limited in their ability to evaluate impacts on human well-being. Although some ambiguities arise in determining whether overall consumption in the United States is excessive, our conclusions regarding the composition of U.S. consumption are unambiguous. Distorted consumption patterns and associated production methods lead to excessively rapid natural resource depletion; greater conservation would yield gains to current and future generations that more than compensate for the sacrifices involved. Public policies that deal with the composition problem not only would help conserve natural resources and improve current welfare but also would reduce the costs of meeting the goal of sustainability.     

大红色基G生产中的废酸资源回收

大红色基Ｇ生产中产生的废硫酸内含硫酸达５０％，ＣＯＤ７０ｇ／Ｌ，难用常规的方法来处理。本文给出了用该废酸生产硫酸锌进而生产立德粉的方法，并用ＣＯＤ浓度作为硫酸锌质量的控制指标，氧化锌和了废硫酸后，有机会物从溶液中析了，ＣＯＤ的去除率达９９％。残存的有机物用活性炭吸附法除去。控制ＺｎＳＯ４溶液中ＣＯＤ≤６０ｍｇ／Ｌ，可制得合格的Ｂ３０１立德粉。有杉本法使硫酸资源全部回收并且无废水排放。     

Between-group encounters among bonnet macaques (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Macaca radiata</Emphasis>)

Socioecological theory suggests that between-group competition is an important factor affecting the nature of primate social relationships. Between-group encounters in macaques may involve female resource defense, male mate defense, and male resource defense. We observed between-group encounters in two groups (a forest group and a temple group) of bonnet macaques (Macaca radiata). We observed 102 encounters in 875 h of observation of the forest group (1.40 per 12-h day) and 58 encounters in 907 h of observation of the temple group (0.77 per 12-h day). Aggressive interactions between groups occurred in 32.4% and 29.3% of encounters in the forest and temple groups, respectively. Overall, we found little support for the female resource defense hypothesis. Females in both groups rarely participated aggressively in between-group encounters. We found support for the male mate defense hypothesis. For example, males of the forest group were more aggressive during encounters in the mating season than in the non-mating season. Males were also aggressive to females from their own group immediately following encounters. We also found partial support for the male resource defense hypothesis. Encounters in the forest group occurred in a feeding context more often than expected based on time budgets. Also, males in the temple group were more often aggressive in food-related encounters than in other encounters. The findings of this study suggest that socioecological models of primate social relationships need to distinguish male and female strategies during between-group encounters and integrate the resulting functional outcomes.Communicated by T. Czeschlik     

MCAI资源管理的信息化

要实现培养创造力人才的目标,教育信息化是最有效途径之一,教育信息化要从资源(包括多媒体辅助教学资源)库整合、资源管理信息化(ERM)等多方面着手,并使它们协调运行才能有效推进教育信息化进程.整合MCAI资源库,建立资源管理信息化系统的实现流程,共建共享资源,快速推进教育信息化进程.     

Extraction capacity and the optimal order of extraction

The least-cost-first extraction rule for deposits with different extraction costs previously has been shown to be invalid in general equilibrium. This paper demonstrates that this rule also does not hold in partial equilibrium when extraction capacity is limited. Necessary and sufficient conditions for several surprising extraction orders are presented. If extraction from a high-cost resource is constrained, it may be optimal to begin extraction from a high-cost deposit (or backstop) strictly before extracting from a lower-cost deposit. If extraction from a low-cost resource is limited, it may be optimal to exhaust a high-cost deposit strictly before the low-cost deposit is exhausted or to abandon extraction temporarily from a high-cost deposit and then to exhaust it later. The analysis demonstrates how extraction constraints affect the order of extraction and shows that certain cost reversals are caused by limited extraction capacity rather than by the general equilibrium definition of extraction costs.     

Set-up costs and the existence of competitive equilibrium when extraction capacity is limited

Although set-up costs are prevalent and substantial in natural resource extraction, it is known that a Walrasian competitive equilibrium cannot exist in simple extraction models with set-up costs. This paper demonstrates that this result is sensitive to the assumption of unlimited extraction capacity and derives sufficient conditions for existence. An equilibrium exists if extraction is limited such that each firm earns sufficient surplus to cover its set-up costs or if firms choose extraction capacity subject to non-increasing returns. The resulting competitive equilibrium price either grows at the rate of interest when total extraction is below industry capacity or is constant when industry capacity is fully utilized. In the equilibrium, identical deposits are opened simultaneously, and set-up costs for new deposits are incurred when the industry has excess capacity rather than when capacity is fully utilized.     

中国的太阳能资源及应用潜力

太阳能资源被认为是21世纪最引人注目的可再生能源和洁净能源，为了经济的可持续发展，应该把环境保护和长期利益作为研究目标，文章估算了中国14个城市的太阳能资源，分析了太阳能热水系统和PIVP系统的经济性，研究结果表明，中国的太阳能利用潜力很大，政府应该对其发展发挥重要作用。     

天津可持续发展的水资源约束与对策

天津是资源型缺水城市，水资源严重短缺、水质污染以及过量开采地下水导致的地面沉降等问题成为天津社会经济快速发展的制约因素。在对天津水资源现状及相关问题分析基础上，提出建立节水型经济结构、建立健全水资源行政管理体系等水资源可持续利用的对策。     

Incorporating the Effects of Socioeconomic Uncertainty into Priority Setting for Conservation Investment

Abstract:  Uncertainty in the implementation and outcomes of conservation actions that is not accounted for leaves conservation plans vulnerable to potential changes in future conditions. We used a decision-theoretic approach to investigate the effects of two types of investment uncertainty on the optimal allocation of global conservation resources for land acquisition in the Mediterranean Basin. We considered uncertainty about (1) whether investment will continue and (2) whether the acquired biodiversity assets are secure, which we termed transaction uncertainty and performance uncertainty, respectively. We also developed and tested the robustness of different rules of thumb for guiding the allocation of conservation resources when these sources of uncertainty exist. In the presence of uncertainty in future investment ability (transaction uncertainty), the optimal strategy was opportunistic, meaning the investment priority should be to act where uncertainty is highest while investment remains possible. When there was a probability that investments would fail (performance uncertainty), the optimal solution became a complex trade-off between the immediate biodiversity benefits of acting in a region and the perceived longevity of the investment. In general, regions were prioritized for investment when they had the greatest performance certainty, even if an alternative region was highly threatened or had higher biodiversity value. The improved performance of rules of thumb when accounting for uncertainty highlights the importance of explicitly incorporating sources of investment uncertainty and evaluating potential conservation investments in the context of their likely long-term success.