我国行业水资源消耗的关联度分析

选取2007年相关数据进行整理分析,应用基于假设抽取法的水资源消耗产业关联度计量模型,比较各行业水资源的直接消耗和纵向集成消耗,定量测算出我国行业间水资源的流动转移情况.通过分析得到:不同行业的水资源直接消耗量与满足自身需求所需的水资源量有所差异,但是对于经济系统而言,所有行业水资源的直接消耗总量等于为满足最终需求所需的水资源总量,即水资源在经济系统的不同行业之间发生了转移;在经济系统中,农业、基础工业作为产业链上游行业将大量的水资源通过中间投入的方式转移到其下游行业中,轻工业、高科技工业等产业链下游行业的直接消耗的水资源无法满足自身需求,必须从其上游行业转移水资源;水资源从产业链的上游逐级向下游转移,维持着经济系统产品的生产与交换;如果行业的最终需求不变,单纯调整产业结构仅是将水资源消耗量大的行业进行区位或行业上的转移,而经济系统水资源消耗的总量并没有改变.本文通过定量化的方式来研究行业水资源消耗关联,初步揭示了水资源在行业间的消耗规律,能够为产业调整提供新视角,为产业结构调整政策提供更为科学的依据.     

考虑未来水资源配置的龙刘水库可调水量研究

论文针对黄河上游水沙关系恶化、水资源供需矛盾加剧等问题,围绕黄河全流域2012—2030年水资源规划的配置结果,以龙羊峡、刘家峡梯级水库联合调度为调控手段,考虑全流域综合供水、防洪、防凌、水资源供需平衡等要求,构建了黄河上游龙羊峡、刘家峡（龙刘）梯级水库联合调度模型,采用自迭代模拟优化算法,分别计算4种情景、4种模式下13个方案的可调水量,最终推荐以水定电模式下的计算结果为最佳模式。结果表明：随着未来需水量的增加,可调水量呈减小趋势,且调水工程的引水量未提高梯级水库的可调水量。研究成果可为黄河上游宽谷河段水沙调控、黄河上游梯级水库群科学规划和调度提供技术支撑。     

An interval joint-probabilistic programming method for solid waste management: a case study for the city of Tianjin, China

Currently, environmental protection and resources conservation continue to be challenges faced by solid-waste managers in China. These challenges are being further compounded by rapid socioeconomic devel- opment and population growth associated with increased waste generation rates and decreased waste disposal capacities. In response to these challenges, an interval joint-probabilistic mixed-integer programming （IJMP） method is developed for supporting long-term planning of waste management activities in the city of Tianjin, which is one of the largest municipalities in the northern part of China. In the IJMP, joint probabilistic constraints are introduced into an interval-parameter mixed-integer programming framework, such that uncertainties presented in terms of interval values and random variables can be reflected. Moreover, a number of violation levels for the waste-management-capacity constraints are examined, which can facilitate in-depth analyses of tradeoffs among economic objective and system-failure risk. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated. They are valuable for supporting the adjustment of the city＇s existing waste-management practices and the long- term planning of the city＇s waste-management facilities.     

BSSF滚筒法钢渣处理技术发展现况研究

介绍了BSSF滚筒法渣处理技术的原理和发展现状,通过对主体设备的不断优化完善及工艺系统的再次开发,对钢渣黏度适应性增强,钢渣处理率从30%提高到85%,系统运行稳定,为钢渣资源化利用提供了良好的条件,符合当今社会对环保及固废资源循环利用的需求。     

Sustainable design of sanitation system based on material and value flow analysis for urban slum in Indonesia

Material flow analysis (MFA) and value flow analysis (VFA) were applied to the sanitation system in an urban slum in Indonesia. Based on the results of the MFA and VFA, garbage and excreta disposal costs were evaluated to be 0.7% and 1.1%, respectively, of per capita income. Such value flows seem reasonable in light of the recognized affordability to pay (ATP) standard. However, current excreta disposal methods create negative impacts on downstream populations. Because such disadvantages do not go back to disposers, but passed to downstream, the current value flow structure does not motivate individual toilet users to install treatment facility. Based on current material and value flow structures, a resource recycling sanitation system scenario was examined. Based on VFA, an affordable initial cost for such a system was calculated; this was found to be comparable in price to a cheaper composting toilet that is currently available in the market.     

Is there really a green paradox?

In the absence of a CO₂ tax, the anticipation of a cheaper renewable backstop increases current emissions of CO₂. Since the date at which renewables are phased in is brought forward and more generally future emissions of CO₂ will decrease, the effect on global warming is unclear. Green welfare falls if the backstop is relatively expensive and full exhaustion of fossil fuels is optimal, but may increase if the backstop is sufficiently cheap relative to the cost of extracting the last drop of fossil fuels plus marginal global warming damages as then it is attractive to leave more fossil fuels unexploited and thus limit CO₂ emissions. We establish these results by analyzing depletion of non-renewable fossil fuels followed by a switch to a clean renewable backstop, paying attention to timing of the switch and the amount of fossil fuels remaining unexploited. We also discuss the potential for limit pricing when the non-renewable resource is owned by a monopolist. Finally, we show that if backstops are already used and more backstops become economically viable as the price of fossil fuels rises, a lower cost of the backstop will either postpone fossil fuel exhaustion or leave more fossil fuel in situ, thus boosting green welfare. However, if a market economy does not internalize global warming externalities and renewables have not kicked in yet, full exhaustion of fossil fuel will occur in finite time and a backstop subsidy always curbs green welfare.     

基于博弈论石化园区火灾跨区域灭火救援研究

为解决石油化工园区火灾跨区域灭火救援面临的多消防中队相互协作、消防资源优化配置等复杂问题,搭建以新疆阿克苏地区消防力量为救援基础的原油储罐火灾场景,结合Gambit软件建立博弈计算模型,设计跨区域灭火救援方案的通用流程。针对不同火灾规模,以跨区域灭火救援通用制定流程为指导,计算出相应的消防中队战斗组合及救援力量输出。针对火灾发展的不确定性,通过混合策略博弈计算进一步调整和完善跨区域灭火救援方案。结果表明,采用博弈论方法能够提供针对消防资源调度分配的新方法,用以制定更快速和易于调整的灭火救援方案。     

煤矿安全生产中地质信息控制研究

经过2005年至2011年7年的煤矿资源整合,山西省煤炭行业呈现如下新的特点:矿井数目显著减少,矿井数量由原来3000多座已采煤矿减少为1000余座整合煤矿;机械化程度提高,75％以上实现机械化采煤;井型变大,升级改造基建矿井规模均达到90万吨/年以上,单独保留矿井则为30万吨/年以上;安全形势明显好转,死亡人数由400多人降为100多人;年产能由2005年6亿吨到2010年7.4亿吨;同时,由于资源整合煤矿地质技术人才短缺、安全管理低下、地质信息不清,煤矿生产事故时有发生,其中地质信息的有效性是其中重要的原因之一.采用管理学的理念加大对地质信息的动态控制是避免事故发生的有效措施.首先认真分析了有效地质信息的含义,提出了地质信息的控制原理,并从组织、动态角度指出了信息发布的重要性;然后通过分析指出了已采矿井瓦斯、水文等地质信息控制的重点.     

资源整合矿区水害探测及防治技术可行性研究

为了研究资源整合后矿区水害探测及防治技术,从山西省矿区设置问题入手,借鉴国内外同类研究进展情况,提出了本文研究对象—一个具有相对独立补给、径流、排泄条件的水文地质单元内所有矿区,提出了六项需要解决的关键技术问题即:引进煤层底板突水预测预报的新方法 -"脆弱性指数法";建立底板突水评价的脆弱性指数模型;煤层顶板突水灾害预测预报的新方法—三图双预测法;采掘前方断层小构造预测预报技术方法;矿井涌(突)水水源快速判别及预测预报;整合后矿区采空区探测问题,并针对以上问题论证了其可行性,提出新的研究思路和新的技术方法。     

农业资源利用模式体系构建的理论探讨--以江汉-洞庭平原为例

针对我国当前农业资源合理利用方法途径的系统性与实践性不强的问题,从长期的农业生产实践出发,应用系统论的研究方法,对农业资源利用方式与地域单元的要素组成及其结构层次进行了系统分析,构建了农业资源利用模式的三级体系框架,并分别按地域单元与行政区划设置了相应级别的空间尺度。同时,在此模式体系框架下,以江汉—洞庭平原为研究区域,进行了农业资源利用模式体系构建的实例分析,探讨了农业资源利用模式的应用与发展,为农业资源高效合理利用提供了可操作的指导框架与实施途径。