Estimating the vulnerability of fifteen tree species under changing climate in Northwest North America

In the Pacific northwestern (PNW) region of North America, climatic conditions have significantly warmed since a predominantly cool phase of the Pacific North American circulation patterns between 1950 and 1975. What are the implications of this shift in climate for the vulnerability of native tree species? To address this question, we combined mechanistic and statistical models to assess where a variety of native tree species might be more vulnerable within their recorded ranges and where they might potentially migrate. For long-lived species that are well adapted to compete, seasonal differences in photosynthesis and water use offer insights helpful in predicting their distributions. To evaluate the general response of conifers to climatic variation across the region, we previously applied a process-based model (3-PG), to simulate the growth and maximum leaf area index that Douglas-fir could attain within recognized forested areas. We then constructed automated decision tree models to define and map the ecological distributions of 15 tree species based on differences in how photosynthesis was constrained by drought, daytime temperatures, high evaporative demand, and the frequency of frost. For the baseline climate period (1950-1975), the decision tree models predicted presence and absence of each species at ∼23,000 observations with an average accuracy of 81%, with an average kappa statistic of 0.74. In this paper the same models were run annually for the period between 1976 and 2006 for each species, and the areas defined as remaining suitable or becoming vulnerable to disturbance were identified based on whether more or less than half of the years fell within the originally defined limits. Based on these criteria, 70% of the species recorded ranges remained suitable, with 30% deemed vulnerable. Results varied notably by species with western red cedar and western hemlock remaining highly adapted, with potential for range expansion in area of up to 50% relative to the baseline period. In contrast, ponderosa pine, lodgepole pine, grand, and noble fir were classified as vulnerable with potential net contractions in their ranges. The analysis was extended through the rest of the 21st century using climatic projections from the Canadian global circulation model with a high fossil fuel emission scenario (A2) and compared to other previously published species range predictions.     

北京建成区道路绿化空间结构和行道树健康状况

采用实地普查测量方法,定量研究了北京建成区188条道路行道树的树种结构、径级分布、立木层次和健康状况。结果表明,国槐（Sophora japonica）、毛白杨（Populus alba）、银杏（Ginkgo biloba）是建成区主要行道树种,使用量分别占研究区树木总株数的54．7％、13．7％和7．4％。建成区树木...     

温带阔叶红松林中不同树种和倒木对土壤性质的影响

以长白山温带阔叶红松林为研究对象,通过野外采集土壤样品,综合研究老龄树及倒木对周边表层土壤性质的影响。研究结果显示,在本研究样地条件下,不同树种周边的表层土壤性质存在显著性差异,红松（Pinus koraiensis）周边土壤中水溶性有机碳WSOC的质量分数和特征吸光系数SUVA254值都高于紫椴（乃砌amurensis）和水曲柳（Fraxinus mandshurica）,但是土壤水溶性总氮WSTN和交换性无机氮的质量分数却是红松低于紫椴和水曲柳。对倒木影响的森林表层土壤性质的研究结果显示,倒木下方森林表层土壤中WSOC、WSTN以及交换性矿质氮的质量分数都明显地高于林间土壤,说明在小尺度空间区域内,倒木可能是森林表层土壤活性碳、氮库的重要输入源。此外,本研究还利用主成分分析探讨了受树种影响的森林表层土壤不同性质之间的关联性,并对树种和倒木影响周边土壤性质的可能性机制进行分析。     

我国应关注ISO呼吸防护的标准化工作

本文介绍了国际标准化组织（ISO）正在开展的呼吸器标准化工作的情况,包括参与国家信息和工作分工情况,以及ISO呼吸器标准体系、产品分类、标准项目信息、产出、进展和进度,分析了ISO标准在未来对全球呼吸防护计数和产品市场发展的影响,并呼吁中国尽早采取主动行动参与其中,争取获得更多的话语权和掌握未来产品技术发展方向的主动权。     

某工业城市大气颗粒物中PAHs的粒径分布及人体呼吸系统暴露评估

为研究大气颗粒物中多环芳烃(PAHs)的粒径分布与富集特征,确定不同粒径颗粒物中PAHs在人体呼吸系统各器官内的沉积浓度,以准确评估其人体呼吸暴露风险,选择东北某钢铁工业城市,在采暖期和非采暖期按粒径对大气颗粒物进行分级采样,用高效液相色谱对样品中14种优控PAHs进行分析,并将大气颗粒物粒径分级采样技术与人体呼吸系统内部沉积模型结合进行呼吸暴露评估.结果表明,大气颗粒物中总PAHs浓度变化显著,采暖期(743. 9 ng·m~(-3))高于非采暖期(169. 0ng·m~(-3)),多数PAHs(86. 3%～89. 9%)与大气中粒径≤2. 06μm的细颗粒有关;中低分子量PAHs单体呈双峰型,峰值位于1. 07～2. 06μm和7. 04～9. 99μm.高分子量PAHs呈单峰分布,峰值位于1. 07～2. 06μm; 4环PAHs的含量占主导优势,为总PAHs浓度的40%;在采暖期和非采暖期分别有53. 3%和55. 3%的颗粒态PAHs沉积在人体呼吸系统的不同器官,分别采用人体呼吸系统沉积浓度和在颗粒物上的总浓度计算该地区人群颗粒态PAHs的终身致癌超额风险值(incremental lifetime cancer risk,R值),成人的R值在采暖期为1. 3×10-5和2. 9×10-5,非采暖期为3. 1×10-6和6. 0×10-6,儿童的R值在采暖期为1. 0×10-5和2. 3×10-5,非采暖期为2. 4×10-6和4. 8×10-6.结果表明,颗粒物粒径分布直接影响呼吸系统沉积浓度和致癌风险,将分级采样技术与呼吸系统沉降模型结合方法可有效避免对人体呼吸暴露量的过度评估.     

生态系统服务约束关系界定及影响机制分析

以长江经济带为研究对象,选择InVEST模型对长江经济带代表性的5种生态系统服务进行评估,根据两两配对关系原理进行约束线提取,并构建生态系统服务约束关系与影响因素相互作用模型,对其作用机制进行探究.结果表明,2000~2015年长江经济带5种生态系统服务两两间共表现出矩形型,对数型,抛物线型和驼峰型4种约束类型;7种影响因素与配对的10对约束关系间均呈弱相关性;影响因子与约束关系作用关系曲线的空间变化呈现较大差异,总体为上下波动的趋势;影响因子对约束关系的贡献程度情况各异.辐射对约束关系的平均贡献率最高,达21.43%,其中对粮食供给-生境质量的贡献率最高,为33.10%;NDVI的平均贡献率最低,为7.55%,其中对粮食供给-生境质量的贡献率最低,为5.70%;各因素间相互作用、彼此制约的关系是生态系统服务约束关系变化的内在机制.     

土地资源的多级网格数据结构建立与应用研究

传统的基于行政区的土地统计数据不能完全表现区域内部土地利用的空间分异特征,以武汉市为实验区,对基于网格的统计信息算法STING(Statistical Information Grid-based method)进行扩展,以景观多样性指数为定量化指标对实验区进行四叉树划分生成不均匀多级网格,建立一种拟合了行政区划界线的不均匀的多级网格结构来存储、管理和分析土地数据。并以此多级网格数据结构为平台计算和生成实验区人口密度空间分异渲染图,初步抽取了人口分布与土地利用之间的关系。实验表明,基于多级网格的统计方法能更好地表达土地利用及其相关数据的空间分异性,利于对土地资源数据的进一步挖掘以抽取所需知识。     

二叉树创建算法的研究

通过对二叉树四种遍历方法的分析,给出四种建立二叉树的通用算法,以及对这些算法效率的初步分析．解决了二叉树在实际应用中创建的问题,同时,给出的算法对一些高级树型数据结构的研究也具有一定参考价值．参4．     

Modelling the abundance of three key plant species in New Zealand hill-pasture using a decision tree approach

Decision tree models were developed to investigate and predict the relative abundance of three key pasture plants [ryegrass (Lolium perenne), browntop (Agrostis capillaris), and white clover (Trifolium repens)] with integration of a geographical information system (GIS) in a naturalised hill-pasture in the North Island, New Zealand, and were compared with regression models with respect to model fit and predictive accuracy. The results indicated that the decision tree models had a better model fit in terms of average squared error (ASE) and a higher percentage of adequately predicted cases in model validation than the corresponding regression models. These decision tree models clearly revealed the relative importance of environmental and management variables in influencing the abundance of these three species. Hill slope was the most significant environmental factor influencing the abundance of ryegrass while soil Olsen P and annual P fertilizer input were the most significant factors influencing the abundance of browntop, and white clover, respectively. Soil Olsen P of approximately 10 μg/g, or a slope of about 10.5° was critical points where the competition between ryegrass and browntop tended to come to an equilibrium. Integrating the decision tree models with a GIS in this study not only facilitated the model development and analyses, but also provided a useful decision support tool in pasture management such as in assisting precision fertilizer placement. The insights obtained from the decision tree models also have important implications for pasture management, for example, it is important to maintain a soil Olsen P higher than 10 μg/g in order to keep the dominance of ryegrass in the hill-pasture.     

计算机辅助事故树分析中的图形输入法

笔者提出计算机辅助事故树分析中事故树数据的图形输入法。通过详细讨论数据采集过程中数据结构的选用和算法设计 ,不但能方便地实现计算机辅助事故树绘图 ,而且在绘图的同时得到事故树的全部数据 ,进而可对事故树进行全部定性和定量分析。这种方法是计算机辅助事故树分析中绘图和数据输入方法的重要补充 ,同时也将有益于其他类型树及图的绘制和分析。最后 ,给出了一个实例 ,应用图形输入法得到满意的结果。该方法不仅是事故树的新绘制方法 ,也是全新的事故树数据输入法 ,是事故树算法的拓展和补充