考虑保护层响应的炼化过程系统风险动态转移模型

为适时、有效地控制炼化过程系统风险,以模糊Petri网(FPN)为基础,针对炼化系统动态退化性和系统中保护层对风险转移的干预性,建立考虑保护层响应的炼化过程系统风险动态转移模型。描述基于FPN的保护层作用动态机制,分析炼化系统在保护层干预下,从非正常干扰触发开始至炼化系统退化过程的风险变化趋势。最后通过正己烷缓冲罐案例分析验证模型。结果表明:正己烷缓冲罐在开始运行的30 000 h内,系统风险等级呈阶段性变化,在工作的前16 800 h,风险为Ⅰ级;第16 800~27 600 h,风险为Ⅱ级;第27 600~30 000 h,风险为Ⅲ级。     

Oil dependency,political institutions,and urban–rural disparities in access to electricity in Africa

In line with the resource curse literature, this paper examines the effect of oil dependency on the disparities in access to electricity between urban and rural areas in Africa, conditional on the quality of political institutions. Based on data from 36 African countries over the period 2000–2017, our investigation suggests that oil rents (% of GDP) increase urban–rural disparities in access to electricity. However, the quality of institutions shapes the effect of oil dependency on these disparities. Specifically, a 10% increase in the institutional quality score reduces the adverse effects of oil rent on electricity access disparity by around 19%, and the negative impact of oil dependency on urban–rural disparities is reversed when institutional quality reaches a score of 52% on a scale from 0 to 100. The robustness tests support these results and call for strengthening the quality of institutions to overcome the resource curse in Africa.     

Impacts of rural to urban migration,urbanization, and generational change on consumption of wild animals in the Amazon

For the first time in history, more people live in urban areas than in rural areas. This trend is likely to continue, driven largely by rural-to-urban migration. We investigated how rural-to-urban migration, urbanization, and generational change affect the consumption of wild animals. We used chelonian (tortoises and freshwater turtles), one of the most hunted taxa in the Amazon, as a model. We surveyed 1356 households and 2776 school children across 10 urban areas of the Brazilian Amazon (6 small towns, 3 large towns, and Manaus, the largest city in the Amazon Basin) with a randomized response technique and anonymous questionnaires. Urban demand for wild meat (i.e., meat from wild animals) was alarmingly high. Approximately 1.7 million turtles and tortoises were consumed in urban areas of Amazonas during 2018. Consumption rates declined as size of the urban area increased and were greater for adults than children. Furthermore, the longer rural-to-urban migrants lived in urban areas, the lower their consumption rates. These results suggest that wild meat consumption is a rural-related tradition that decreases as urbanization increases and over time after people move to urban areas. However, it is unclear whether the observed decline will be fast enough to conserve hunted species, or whether children's consumption rate will remain the same as they become adults. Thus, conservation actions in urban areas are still needed. Current conservation efforts in the Amazon do not address urban demand for wildlife and may be insufficient to ensure the survival of traded species in the face of urbanization and human population growth. Our results suggest that conservation interventions must target the urban demand for wildlife, especially by focusing on young people and recent rural to urban migrants. Article impact statement: Amazon urbanite consumption of wildlife is high but decreases with urbanization, over time for rural to urban migrants, and between generations. Impactos de la Migración del Campo a la Ciudad, la Urbanización y del Cambio Generacional sobre el Consumo de Animales Silvestres en el Amazonas     

不同警告方式下驾驶人应激反应能力模拟试验研究

为研究在道路突发危险场景下先进驾驶辅助系统的不同警告方式对驾驶人应激反应能力的影响，利用自主开发的驾驶人应激反应能力测试软件，以计算机模拟与驾驶模拟器为试验平台，以实际驾驶视频为试验场景，选取操作准确率和反应时间为测试指标，分析不同警告方式下驾驶人的应激反应能力。研究结果表明:视觉警告可有效缩短应激反应时间；视听觉组合警告中，视觉警告占主导作用，听觉警告起辅助作用；在真实场景视频试验环境下，驾驶模拟器模拟试验的操作效果优于计算机模拟试验。     

Beyond demographic identities and motivation to learn: The effect of organizational identification on diversity training outcomes

There is a pressing need for better explanations of diversity training effectiveness so that organizations can administer training programs that facilitate positive intergroup interactions. In this paper, we consider the unique predictive effect of organizational identification on diversity training outcomes beyond the effects of the traditional predictors of demographic-based identities and motivation to learn across two samples of employees involved in diversity-related training at their employing organizations. Organizational identification predicted unique variance in voluntary participation in diversity training, diversity training-related knowledge application, motivation to transfer diversity training, and diversity training-related organizational citizenship behavior intentions. Research and practitioner implications are discussed based on our findings.     

急倾斜上保护层开采保护效果的参数敏感度研究

为对急倾斜上保护层开采过程中,保护层开采多参数同时变化时的保护效果变化规律进行量化研究,将被保护层膨胀变形曲线的形态参数作为保护效果考察指标,基于可旋转CCD试验方案进行有限元计算,建立了保护层开采保护效果的响应面模型,得到了不同保护效果指标受多个保护层开采参数变异影响的敏感度。通过对急倾斜上保护层开采实例进行敏感度分析得到:范围相关保护效果指标受保护层开采参数变异影响的敏感度最高,位置相关保护效果指标敏感度次之,卸压程度相关保护效果指标敏感度最小。范围相关保护效果指标中,上部卸压角受侧压系数变异影响最敏感,敏感度为1.70;下部卸压角受层间距变异影响最敏感,敏感度为1.02;倾向保护范围长度受层间距变异影响最敏感,敏感度为-1.89。     

基于GPR-TOPSIS方法的充填配比多目标多属性优化

为获得某金矿尾砂胶结充填材料最优配比,基于试验结果,以海水比例、灰砂比和料浆质量浓度为输入参数,以充填体强度、塌落度及泌水率为输出参数,建立了充填配比与其响应量的高斯过程回归模型,分析了不同因素对充填性能的影响程度;采用遗传算法对高斯过程回归模型进行多目标参数优化,获得了Pareto非劣解,在此基础上,引入多属性决策的TOPSIS法对Pareto非劣解进行方案优选,确定了充填最优配比。研究结果表明:高斯过程回归模型相对误差值均小于6%,可靠性高;灰砂比及料浆质量浓度对充填性能影响较为显著,采用海水作为充填水源将降低充填体的强度;经优化后的充填配比与试验结果相符。     

陆上原油长输管道泄漏爆炸事故情景构建研究

以某陆上原油长输管道为例,设定了陆上原油长输管道泄漏爆炸事故情景背景信息及演化过程,从预防、准备、预警、响应、恢复等阶段,梳理分析了事故情景应对全过程的任务及职责主体;针对各项任务从计划预案、人员队伍、装备物资、培训演练、运行机制等方面开展了情景应对能力评估;并针对存在的差距和不足,从企业和政府2个层面提出了针对此类情景的应急能力提升对策建议。该研究可为相关政府及企业加强油气长输管道事故应急准备能力建设提供参考。     

蔬菜施不同肥料对产量和土壤肥力的贡献

为控制施肥对蔬菜和土壤的负面影响，充分利用施肥对土壤肥力的保护功能，探讨蔬菜合理的有机肥施用量，在不同质地土壤上，田间试验小白菜、苦瓜、豇豆三种蔬菜施不同量有机肥，收获时测定其产量、品质及试验前后的土壤有机质质量分数。结果表明，(1)在施适量无机NPK的条件下，每造蔬菜的有机肥(禽畜粪便，下同)施用量，砂土上小白菜为4500kg／hm^2、苦瓜和豇豆为3000kg/hm^2；在壤土上，小白菜和苦瓜均宜施3000kg/hm^2，豇豆则宜施4500kg／hm^2；在粘土上，小白菜每造只宜施1500～3000kg／hm^2的有机肥。(2)有机肥必须与无机肥合理配合施用，才能获得最佳的产量和品质效果。(3)施有机肥3000-4500kg/hm^2 适量无机肥可使土壤有机质水平保持在种植蔬菜前的质量分数水平，该施肥量和方式不仅可使蔬菜高产、优质，还有利于保护土壤肥力。(4)对蔬菜产量的贡献，有机肥和化肥配合施用的处理对蔬菜产量的贡献最大，来自土壤的效应由小到大依次为有机肥和化肥配合施用→化肥→有机肥，进一步反映合理施肥有利于保护土壤肥力。     

大豆种质资源对斜纹夜蛾(PRODENIA LITURA)抗性的鉴定

在网室人工均匀接虫条件下 ,以叶面积损失百分率为指标 ,分别于 1997年和 1998年鉴定了从 6 72 4份大豆资源中筛选的 46份抗感材料及 5份江淮与南方大豆推广良种共 5 1份对斜纹夜蛾的抗性差异表现 .结果表明 ,品种间、观测日期间、年份间抗虫性有极显著差异 ;品种与观测日期间互作显著 ;品种与年份之间互作极显著 ;年份之间抗虫性表现极显著相关 .从供试资源中筛选出一批年份间表现相对一致的高抗种质 ,其抗性优于国际常用的抗源PI2 2 76 87、PI17145 1、PI2 2 935 8.表 3参 10