海外高风险地区项目突发事件应急对策

介绍了我国企业近年来在海外地区的发展态势,简要说明了在海外高风险地区项目面临的安全威胁和挑战,分析了海外高风险地区项目可能发生突发事件的种类和危害,阐述了海外项目应对突发事件的策略,在此基础上建立了海外高风险地区项目应对突发事件的通用应急管理模式,并通过相关实例进行了说明,总结了海外高风险地区项目应对突发事件的关键环节和经验.     

武汉市城市化过程中的空气质量响应研究

以武汉市2000-2013年的城市化水平和空气质量状况数据为基础,运用主成分分析法和目标比率模型构建综合评价体系,并用多元回归模型进行检验,探究城市化过程中的空气环境质量响应特征.结果表明:1)2000年以来,武汉城市化进入稳增长的快速抬升阶段,空气污染综合指数总体变化平稳,2013年有变坏的趋势;2)不同类型的污染物对城市化水平具有不同的响应规律和影响程度,SO2为倒“U”型,表明随着城市发展,SO2浓度得到控制并呈下降趋势;NO2为“U”型,近9年来NO2浓度不减反增,对空气环境污染严重;而PM10及空气质量综合水平表现为倒“N”型特征,表明现阶段空间环境呈现污染加重的趋势;3)城市化快速扩张过程中的基础设施建设、建筑扬尘,汽车尾气排放、工业烟尘等是影响武汉空间环境质量的主要因素,需有针对性地加强城市空气环境管理.     

上喷式矿井排风热回收装置内液滴运动模型及其优化计算

为了减小常见下喷式装置风吹水损失大的问题,设计了上喷式矿井排风热回收装置.通过液滴受力及运动分析,将上喷式液滴的运动划分为2个阶段.根据牛顿第二定律,建立了简化的液滴动量方程;在该方程的基础上,结合运动阶段划分,得到临界条件下的力平衡关系式;利用该式,在10个不同相对速度下,得到了上喷式与下喷式的保证液滴不被吹飞的临界直径.应用变量替换,将液滴动量方程变换为液滴运动距离的微分式;继而,根据液滴及空气之间的雷诺数组合,导出了液滴最大上升高度的5个积分计算式.应用这些积分式,数值计算了不同迎面风速、液滴粒径及液滴初速度下,上喷式中液滴最大上升高度、下喷式中液滴最大下降高度.对比计算结果,相比下喷式,上喷式具有节水、液滴选择范围宽和低耗高效的优势.     

火灾中液化气储罐热响应CFD模拟的UDF程序设计

为了降低火灾环境下储罐内部介质热响应及储罐失效试验研究的成本和风险,更好地为储罐事故的预测预防提供模拟依据,利用Fluent 12.0软件对密闭容器内部介质的传热传质过程进行模拟,给出了内部介质在受热和冷却条件下相变的控制方程;通过考虑内部介质气化热随温度的变化及饱和温度与区域单元压力之间的关系,编写了内部介质在受热和冷却条件下质量和能量源项的用户自定义函数(UDF);通过对部分参数进行简化,分别给出了喷射火和池火条件下丙烷储罐热响应模拟的结果,并与试验结果进行了对比.结果表明:储罐热响应各主要参数(内部介质温度、壁面温度,储罐内部压力)的误差在喷射火条件下低于15％,在池火条件下低于12.4％.这表明模拟所需源项UDF正确,可以用于现实储罐热响应的模拟.     

微波诱导热解法制备落叶吸附剂及其工艺优化

采用微波诱导热解法制备低成本落叶吸附剂,以实现落叶的资源化利用.以碘吸附值为响应值,采用响应面分析法研究了微波诱导热解法制备落叶吸附剂的工艺条件.结果表明,热解时间与微波功率之间存在交互作用,当热解功率增加时,可适当缩短热解时间.落叶吸附剂的最佳制备工艺条件为:热解时间4.04 min,微波功率488.72W,氯化锌质量分数27％.落叶吸附剂以微孔吸附为主,BJH孔径分布较窄,孔容最高峰对应的孔径在1.9 nm左右,Langmuir比表面积为769.61 m2/g.     

黄河三角洲海岸带生态承载力综合评价

为全面、深入认识黄河三角洲海岸带的海洋资源和生态环境特征、海洋产业结构及海洋经济发展的优势、劣势条件,选取工业废水排放量、固体废渣排放量、万元GDP能耗、岸线利用率、人均可开发海域面积、人均海岸线长度、海洋初级生产力、污染海域占海域总面积的比例、生物多样性指数、人口密度、人均海洋经济产值、GDP年均增速、科研与开发投入和环境保护支出等压力、状态、响应3类14个指标,采用压力-状态-响应模型对黄河三角洲海岸带生态承载力进行了综合量化评价.结果表明,2006-2010年黄河三角洲海岸带的承载指数和压力指数呈下降趋势,承压比则总体上呈上升趋势.根据评价结果,提出了构建高效生态产业体系、优化黄河三角洲产业空间布局、对传统产业进行生态化改造、发展新兴生态产业、保护黄河三角洲海岸带生态环境、对黄河三角洲海岸带海洋资源进行高效集约利用等提高黄河三角洲海岸带生态承载力的对策.     

The Real-World Safety Potential of Connected Vehicle Technology

Objective: This article estimates the safety potential of a current commercially available connected vehicle technology in real-world crashes.

Method: Data from the Centre for Automotive Safety Research's at-scene in-depth crash investigations in South Australia were used to simulate the circumstances of real-world crashes. A total of 89 crashes were selected for inclusion in the study. The crashes were selected as representative of the most prevalent crash types for injury or fatal crashes and had potential to be mitigated by connected vehicle technology. The trajectory, speeds, braking, and impact configuration of the selected in-depth cases were replicated in a software package and converted to a file format allowing “replay” of the scenario in real time as input to 2 Cohda Wireless MK2 onboard units. The Cohda Wireless onboard units are a mature connected vehicle technology that has been used in both the German simTD field trial and the U.S. Department of Transport's Safety Pilot project and have been tuned for low false alarm rates when used in the real world. The crash replay was achieved by replacing each of the onboard unit Global Positioning System (GPS) inputs with the simulated data of each of the involved vehicles. The time at which the Cohda Wireless threat detection software issued an elevated warning was used to calculate a new impact speed using 3 different reaction scenarios and 2 levels of braking.

Results: It was found that between 37 and 86% of the simulated crashes could be avoided, with highest percentage due a fully autonomous system braking at 0.7 g. The same system also reduced the impact speed relative to the actual crash in all cases. Even when a human reaction time of 1.2 s and moderate braking of 0.4 g was assumed, the impact speed was reduced in 78% of the crashes. Crash types that proved difficult for the threat detection engine were head-on crashes where the approach angle was low and right turn–opposite crashes.

Conclusions: These results indicate that connected vehicle technology can be greatly beneficial in real-world crash scenarios and that this benefit would be maximized by having the vehicle intervene autonomously with heavy braking. The crash types that proved difficult for the connected vehicle technology could be better addressed if controller area network (CAN) information is available, such as steering wheel angle, so that driver intent can be inferred sooner. More accurate positioning in the real world (e.g., combining satellite positioning and accelerometer data) would allow the technology to be more effective for near-collinear head-on and rear-end crashes, because the low approach angles that are common in such crashes are currently ignored in order to minimize false alarms due to positioning uncertainty.     

基于PCA-ELM模型的露采爆破振动对民房破坏的预测分析

针对露天采矿爆破振动对民房破坏的预测问题,采用主成分分析(PCA)和极限学习机(ELM)方法,选取爆破振幅、主频率、主频率持续时间、灰缝强度、砖墙面积率、房屋高度、屋盖形式、圈梁立柱、施工质量、场地条件10个主要影响因素。引入相关性分析在主成分分析过程中,对相关性高的指标进行降维,把得到的3个综合因子和爆破振幅、主频率、主频率持续时间、砖墙面积率作为输入变量,构建露天煤矿PCA-ELM预测模型。选取露天矿实际爆破过程中测量的100组数据作为模型训练样本,用另外20组数据作为测试样本进行预测。结果表明:对民房破坏影响因素中灰缝强度、房屋高度、屋盖形式、圈梁立柱、施工质量、场地条件之间具有较高的关联度。该模型处理高维数据时较传统的ELM算法具有预测精度高、稳定性好等特点,可准确预测爆破振动对民房的破坏程度,误判率为1/20。     

Blast wave clearing behavior for positive and negative phases

The purpose of the research was to improve prediction of response of buildings to blast waves by including the negative phase and considering clearing of both positive and negative phases. Commonly used structural design practices, which trace their origins to military design manuals, often ignore the negative phase as well as positive phase clearing. For high explosive threats, this approach is conservative in most circumstances. However, negative phase clearing had not previously been studied for blast waves, and the implications for structural response had not been evaluated. This paper presents results of modeling negative phase blast clearing behavior for a typical blast wave and discusses the differences from positive phase clearing. The implications of including positive and negative phase clearing in building blast damage analysis are also investigated through single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) analyses.Blast waves from explosion sources like a vapor cloud explosion (VCE), pressure vessel burst or high explosive exhibit both positive and negative phases, and the relative magnitude of the positive and negative phases varies among explosion sources and the specific circumstances of each source. A fully reflected blast wave is produced if an incident blast wave were to strike an infinitely tall and wide wall in a normal orientation. Both the positive and negative phases of the blast wave are enhanced by the reflection process. However, when an incident blast wave strikes a wall of finite size in a normal orientation, rarefaction waves are created at the edges of the wall, and the rarefactions sweep down from the roof and inward from sides. The rarefaction waves result in a clearing effect for both the positive and negative phases.Clearing relieves some of the applied blast load on the reflected wall for the positive phase. However, this is not always the case for the negative phase. As shown by the results presented in this paper, clearing may either relieve or enhance the applied negative phase blast load, depending on the duration of the blast wave and the wall dimensions.The impact of negative phase clearing on structural response for generic building components was also investigated. Nonlinear SDOF methods were used to characterize response in terms of peak positive and negative displacements. It was found that the influence of the negative phase is significant and the peak structural response can occur during negative (outward) displacement.     

Deflagration to detonation transition in a vapour cloud explosion in open but congested space: Large scale test

The paper reviews large scale experiments with various fuels in air where successful deflagration to detonation transition (DDT) took place. This includes a recent experiment disclosed in the Buncefield R&D program, where DDT developed in the propane/air mixture. The DDT occurred in branches of deciduous trees in a premixed stagnant mixture. An internal R&D investigation programme was initiated to better understand the phenomena. A large scale experiment in an open space with ethane air mixture is presented in the paper. The premixed mixture was ignited at the edge of the congested three-dimensional rigs which consisted of vertical and horizontal pipes. After ignition, the flame accelerated in the congestion and transitioned to detonation at the end of congestion. Stable detonation propagated through the remaining open and uncongested space.The flame acceleration process leading to DDT is scale dependent. It also depends on many parameters leading to a large investigation array and, significant cost. However, such R&D efforts aimed toward a safer plant design, i.e. the prevention of occurrence of a major accident, are a small fraction of a real accident cost.