The long iron line: Water resources development at the United States Military Academy,West Point (1802–1943)

Comprehensive analyses of long-term region-specific water resources developments could offer new insights for contemporary water resources planners and decision makers. The objective of this work was to analyze water supply development at the United States Military Academy (USMA) during the 19th and early 20th Centuries through the lens of selected modern water resources planning and management practices. Analysis of water usage, population, and technological growth revealed that changes in technology had a greater influence on total water withdrawals than an increase in population. The USMA water supply system evolved incrementally over much of the 141-year study period and failure to adequately recognize shortcomings in water supply options resulted in several suboptimal decisions. Communications and enhanced stakeholder participation might have resulted in alternative decisions.     

考虑组织因素的液化天然气泄漏安全评价方法

为考虑组织因素对于人因失误发生的根本性影响,提出一种以贝叶斯网络(BN)为工具的人因风险分析方法,并用于液化天然气泄漏的安全评价。先将认知可靠性与失误分析方法(CREAM)的共同绩效条件(CPC)分成3层,即组织层、技术系统层和个人层。以BN为工具,利用其因果推理和诊断推理的功能,进行人因失误预测和追溯的双向分析。将考虑组织因素的人员操作失误概率引入浮式液化天然气船(FLNGV)装卸过程LNG泄漏的BN中,进行LNG泄漏的安全评价以及事故原因的重要度分析。结果表明,"执行"失误是LNG泄漏最主要的事故原因,而个人层的CPC会对执行失误产生较大的影响。