基于火灾场景的大型浮顶储罐区全过程风险防范体系研究

针对大型浮顶罐区火灾事故风险特征,通过对火灾场景辨识及其火灾风险影响因素分析,结合预防初期火灾场景风险要素和消防系统有效性,提出了罐区火灾事故现实风险的评估框架及确定方法。在此基础上,构建了基于火灾场景的全过程风险防范体系,包括库区评估规划、罐体本质安全化设计、库区火灾预防、罐区火灾扑救、园区火灾事故管理等5个方面,并给出相应的对策措施。大型浮顶罐区全过程火灾风险防范是一个持续改进的结构化过程风险管理体系,有助于实现罐区火灾风险的过程安全管理,进而提高仓储型园区的整体消防安全保障能力和风险防控水平。     

灾害救援中基于民众心理感知的应急物资多阶段分配问题研究

为有效解决在保证高效完成救援任务的同时考虑受灾民众行为,进而提高灾民对救援处置效果的满意度问题,结合行为运筹学相关理论和不公平厌恶理论,提出民众对于应急物资到达时间的风险感知度量模型,以及民众对于所得到的应急物资数量的公平满意度度量模型,构建基于灾民心理感知的应急物资多阶段调度模型,解决应急物资到达时间风险感知、物资分发数量公平满意度等多目标下的调配决策问题;设计基于蚁群优化思想的求解算法。研究结果表明:通过实例分析对比验证了模型在提升灾区民众对于应急物资分发策略满意度方面的有效性。     

基于贝叶斯网络气化炉供料系统风险分析

为解决当前气化炉供料系统风险分析不完善的状况,提出1种基于贝叶斯网络和HAZOP的风险分析模型。以某单日投煤量3 000 t级气化炉煤化工企业实际运行情况为研究对象,应用HAZOP法对其进行风险分析,并将HAZOP分析结果中各偏差产生原因转化为贝叶斯网络节点;考虑到先验知识的缺乏问题,引入Leaky Noisy OR模型,通过文献资料和相关领域专家经验知识获得先验概率,并利用贝叶斯网络进行风险分析,找出系统运行的薄弱环节。结果表明:未知因素影响会使各节点的后验概率值差异性降低,更加贴合实际;在引入未知因素影响后,系统运行薄弱环节并未发生改变。     

基于模糊推理的FRAM事故定量分析方法研究

为有效克服FRAM事故分析中无法进行定量分析的缺陷,提出结合模糊推理技术的Fuzzy FRAM模型。此改进模型基于FRAM识别系统运行状态;依据功能输出要素的时间/精度属性利用Matlab构建2阶模糊推理系统量化功能输出质量;根据通用性能条件(CPC)及功能输入耦合端口构建功能评价体系,针对评价体系中存在的不确定性信息融合及建模问题,采用模糊证据推理技术,通过模糊信度结构建立、数据处理、信息融合测度后获得功能的风险指数;以既有铁路危险品运输事故为例,验证方法的可行性。结果表明:Fuzzy FRAM模型的评估结果较为精确,是FRAM分析方法的有效补充。     

基于复杂网络的燃气管线破裂灾害链风险分析*

为提高燃气管线突发事件应急处置决策水平和应急响应能力及效率,采用复杂网络理论和灾害链演化机理对燃气管线破裂灾害事件影响进行耦合分析,构建燃气管线破裂灾害链网络和风险评估模型,并计算得出燃气管线破裂灾害链风险度。为更准确地表达无传播路径的灾害事件之间的关系,将灾害网络中所有最短路径长度的最大值作为其最短路径长度,计算表明这种算法更符合灾害传播实际情况。结果表明:通过燃气管线破裂灾害链风险分析,能够为燃气管线灾害风险控制措施和方案制定提供参考,有利于提高燃气管线破裂灾害事件的应急处置能力和决策水平。     

铁路沿线可燃重气储罐最小隔离区域划分探讨*

为保护铁路线,以某化工厂距离高铁路线最近的丙烯球罐为例,提出丙烯球罐泄漏最小隔离区域划分方法以及2种保护高铁线路方案,利用重气扩散模型和定量风险评价（QRA）软件分别进行丙烯扩散模拟、爆炸模拟,并进行危险与可操作性分析（HAZOP）和保护层分析（LOPA）。结果表明:球罐发生泄漏及火灾爆炸等事故,会给附近铁路线带来严重破坏;丙烯泄漏或球罐因周围其他设备设施或可燃物质着火而温度升高时,保护措施不足;隧道的安全可靠性要高于仅设1道防爆墙,隧道长度需覆盖最小隔离区域的可及范围,在扩散区域内也需设立普通挡墙,在极度危险情况下,需要实施高铁停开等保护措施。     

Does longevity impact the severity of traffic crashes? A comparative study of young-older and old-older drivers

Introduction: This article analyzes the effect of driver’s age in crash severity with a particular focus on those over the age of 65. The greater frequency and longevity of older drivers around the world suggests the need to introduce a possible segmentation within this group at risk, thus eliminating the generic interval of 65 and over as applied today in road safety data and in the automobile insurance sector. Method: We investigate differences in the severity of traffic crashes among two subgroups of older drivers –young-older (65–75) and old-older (75+), and findings are compared with the age interval of drivers under 65. Here, we draw on data for 2016 provided by Spanish Traffic Authority. Parametric and semi-parametric regression models are applied. Results: We identified the factors related to the crash, vehicle, and driver that have a significant impact on the probability of the crash being slight, serious, or fatal for the different age groups. Conclusions: We found that crash severity and the expected costs of crashes significantly increase when the driver is over the age of 75. Practical Applications: Our results have obvious implications for regulators responsible for road safety policies – most specifically as they consider there should be specific driver licensing requirements and driving training for elderly – and for the automobile insurance industry, which to date has not examined the impact that the longevity of drivers is likely to have on their balance sheets.     

基于蒙特卡洛模拟的多米诺事故风险量化管理*

为降低危化品相关的化工事故造成的人员伤亡和财产损失,以化工多米诺事故为研究对象,探讨由初始事故引发1个或多个次生事故的连锁反应机理与风险评估方法。提出应用蒙特卡洛模拟对多米诺事故风险进行动态量化的方法,梳理化工多米诺事故风险的识别、分析、评定、处理全周期管理流程,并以1个天然气压气站为案例,验证基于蒙卡模拟的化工多米诺事故风险量化方法的有效性。结果表明:该方法可以更准确地对化工多米诺事故风险进行定量评估。多米诺事故风险全周期管理流程的梳理能够有效指导化工企业开展安全管理、事故预防等工作。     

基于等级全息建模的输油泵机组风险根源辨识*

为“挖掘”输油泵机组风险根源,降低设备预知性维护难度,结合输油泵多准则风险评价,提出1种基于等级全息建模的输油泵机组风险根源辨识方法,运用等级全息建模方法将输油泵系统分解为泵体结构、管理因素、环境因素、操作因素、技术因素、运行因素、设备安装7个子系统进行定性和定量分析。结果表明:相比危险与可操作性分析（HAZOP）、事故树分析（FTA）等传统风险辨识方法,等级全息建模（HHM）对轴承等关键部件以及压力等运行参数的监测更为深入,能够有效辨识输油泵机组高风险情景,提升输油泵的风险辨识效率。     

Application of dynamic risk analysis in offshore drilling processes

Process safety is the common global language used to communicate the strategies of hazard identification, risk assessment and safety management. Process safety is identified as an integral part of process development and focuses on preventing and mitigating major process accidents such as fires, explosions, and toxic releases in process industries. Accident probability estimation is the most vital step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Drilling process for oil is a hazardous operation and hence safety is one of the major concerns and is often measured in terms of risk. Dynamic risk assessment method is meant to reassess risk in terms of updating initial failure probabilities of events and safety barriers, as new information are made available during a specific operation. In this study, a Bayesian network model is developed to represent a well kick scenario. The concept of dynamic environment is incorporated by feeding the real-time failure probability values (observed at different time intervals) of safety barriers to the Bayesian network in order to obtain the corresponding time-dependent variations in kick consequences. This study reveals the importance of real-time monitoring of safety barrier performances and quantitatively shows the effect of deterioration of barrier performance on kick consequence probabilities. The Macondo blowout incident is used to demonstrate how early warnings in barrier probability variations could have been observed and adequately managed to prevent escalation to severe consequences.