Impact of Length of Dataset on Streamflow Calibration Parameters and Performance of APEX Model

Due to resource constraints, long‐term monitoring data for calibration and validation of hydrologic and water quality models are rare. As a result, most models are calibrated and, if possible, validated using limited measured data. However, little research has been done to determine the impact of length of available calibration data on model parameterization and performance. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of length of calibration data (LCD) on parameterization and performance of the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender model for predicting daily, monthly, and annual streamflow. Long‐term (1984‐2015) measured daily streamflow data from Rock Creek watershed, an agricultural watershed in northern Ohio, were used for this study. Data were divided into five Short (5‐year), two Medium (15‐year), and one Long (25‐year) streamflow calibration data scenarios. All LCD scenarios were calibrated and validated at three time steps: daily, monthly, and annual. Results showed LCD affected the ability of the model to accurately capture temporal variability in simulated streamflow. However, overall average streamflow, water budgets, and crop yields were simulated reasonably well for all LCD scenarios.     

根据分子连接性指数估算非极性有机化合物在鱼体中的生物富集因子

研究了有机化合物在鱼全中的生物富集因子（ＢＣＦ）与分子连接性指数（ＭＣＩ）之间的定量关系。通过逐步回归分析,以８０种非极性化合物ＢＣＦ实验值为基础,建立了根据ＭＣＩ估算ＢＣＦ的定量模型。利用Ｊａｃｋｋｎｉｆｅ法按分且和单个化合物随机抽取等方式对模型稳健性进行检验。结果显示回归方程的可决系数（Ｒ＾２）表现出较强的统计稳健性,但个别化合物的存在对模型精度有一定影响。在不同类别化合物与模型Ｊａｃｋｋｎｉ     

基于离散余弦变换的鲁棒感知图像哈希技术

对现有感知图像哈希的生成方法进行深入研究,分析该方法存在的不足之处。分别介绍离散余弦变换、Watson视觉模型和混沌模型的原理和特点,提出将这3种模型进行融合来设计感知图像哈希的生成方法。该方法采用离散余弦变换提取图像特征,对比敏感表对特征向量进行处理并用Logistic方程作为混沌序列发生器进行加密,最后采用预测差分方法进行量化编码。试验结果表明:该方法可以抵抗内容保持的修改操作,并具有较强的鲁棒性、安全性和检索性,且冲突概率降低到10-7数量级。该技术在图像认证、版权保护、安全和基于内容的图像检索等方面有应用价值。     

通过改进节点性能确保火灾下钢框架结构的鲁棒性(英文)

介绍了钢框架结构火灾下鲁棒性的背景知识,建议对于非常重要的建筑结构,抗火安全设计必须包括通常设计中尚未考虑到的意外破坏模式。文章辨识了结构意外破坏的不同模式,并提出了保证结构安全性的可行方法。本文主要介绍了如何利用梁的悬链线效应,使荷栽从受损结构重新分配到相邻结构,该效应是梁受弯承载力状态的一种转变。为确保钢梁中悬链线效应的充分发展,最重要的是要保证节点具有足够的抗拉承栽力与转动能力。本文提出了一种节点转动能力需求的量纲分析方法,并根据一些试验结果,介绍了英国常用的梁柱节点可到达的转动能力。虽然一些延性较好的节点在升温时能够达到10°的转动能力,但当钢的温度非常高时,其仍不能满足使悬链线效应充分形成时所需要的转动能力(>15°)。随后,讨论了如何提高节点的转动能力,包括:采用具有较好延性的节点(例如开反向槽口的节点),改进节点的细部构造(如将节点的受拉区移近至受压区,并为螺栓开槽型孔)和采用更强的、延性更好的由耐火钢制成的螺栓。这些提出的节点技术需要与节点在其他设计要求下的性能要求相协调(如刚度),为满足不同的结构性能要求,找到最优的节点设计方法,仍需要更深入的研究。     

流域负荷削减的主观深度不确定性分析及稳健决策

深度不确定性影响着流域负荷削减及其决策.针对决策过程中主观层面产生的深度不确定性,本文提出了包含3个部分的稳健性决策方法:(1)确定衡量主观因素的权重的合理范围,采取适当采样方法确定每组合理权重下的最优决策;(2)稳健性指标计算;(3)以稳健性指标为目标结合进化算法求出稳健决策.将上述方法应用到江西八里湖的总氮(TN)负荷削减决策之中,该决策问题的相关模型考虑到了污染负荷与水质的响应关系及客观不确定性.以此为基础,在八里湖流域TN 277~297 t的年负荷削减水平下分析主观深度不确定性的影响.结果显示,即便结构相似的权重,细微的改变也能导致不同权重下的最优决策发生比较大的变化,而通过上述方法可以识别出污染负荷削减的稳健决策,该决策以点源及特定子流域的面源控制为主.在削减率上下波动5%(2.5%)的范围内,上述方案能够在83.5%(40.3%)的合理权重情况下保持最优,说明该决策能够满足绝大部分情况下对于不同站点之间的权衡考虑,可以为最终决策提供支持.     

有机化合物KOC片段常数估算模型的误差与稳健性分析

分析了估算有机化合物吸着系数的片段常数模型的误差,并用４种不同方法检验了估算有机化合物吸纱数的片段常数模型的稳健性。重复随机抽取单一合物,逐一抽取估算值与实测值差别较大的个别化合物,重复随机抽取５０个化合物以及逐一抽取特定化合物类别。     

Institutional challenges to robustness of delta and floodplain agricultural systems

The farming of natural coastal deltas and floodplains was in many parts of the world the cradle of civilization. Through history the transformation of risky floodplain systems into socially controlled environments was the result of an intricate interplay between ecology, demography, religion, social organization and technology of the time. After the harnessing of most large tropical rivers, there are in our time few natural deltas and floodplains left to study in the warm regions of the world. One such floodplain is the Rufiji coastal delta and floodplain in Tanzania. Here an artificial irrigation culture has not been developed, but a robust risk-minimizing system based on rice, maize, cotton and peas has evolved for delta and floodplain agriculture. Through the Arab, German and British colonization, attempts were made to ‘modernize’ this agricultural system, resulting in new crops and varieties being incorporated into the system in a way that made it even more robust. This study explains the genesis of this as a socio-ecological system, that is, an interaction of resource systems, resource units, governance and users. It analyses some fundamental challenges to this agricultural system during the last 100 years: the removal of the floodplain population to ‘safe ujamaa villages’, the recurring large infrastructure development initiatives and the modern institutional challenges such as individualized tenure, urban food market expansion, coastal and marine conservation, and the recent development of ‘land-grabbing’ practices.     

Bottom-up approach for downscaling CO2 emissions in Taiwan: robustness analysis and policy implications

The roles and responsibilities of cities in CO₂ mitigation have drawn increasing attention in recent years. To facilitate optimal design of effective mitigation policies, it is important for city authorities to understand the magnitudes and sources of their CO₂ emissions, and their relative shares of emissions at a higher spatial level. Although several studies estimate CO₂ emissions at the city level, the robustness of these estimates and their linkage to emissions at a higher level remains unclear. This kind of localized information on emissions is important for coordination of climate policies at different spatial scales. The study aims to fill a gap in understanding by building a systematic bottom-up approach for estimating urban CO₂ emissions and offering a consistency check with IPCC top–down estimates. Using Taiwan as a case study, we display the geographic distribution of CO₂ emissions. The significance and implications of the downscaling CO₂ emissions are indicated accordingly.     

中国雾霾污染的社会经济影响因素——基于空间面板数据EBA模型实证研究

依据环境经济学理论,运用空间极限边界分析模型,采用中国2003—2013年30个省际面板数据,从经济、人口、政策三方面入手,遴选尽可能多的社会经济变量,探究中国雾霾污染的空间相关性及其影响因素.结果显示中国雾霾污染具有空间溢出效应且京津冀、长三角及中东部部分地区出现高-高集聚现象.产业结构、能源消费结构、城市建筑施工、人口规模以及汽车保有量对雾霾污染具有抗干扰性的"稳健性"影响.最后依据实证结论提出了一些政策建议,如进行雾霾区域联合防治,转变经济发展方式,清洁高效使用煤炭,合理布局城市人口等.这些建议为政府制定治理雾霾政策提供决策依据和参考.     

用分子连接指数研究氯代芳香族化合物对绿藻的毒性及QSAR分析

本文测定了一批氯代芳香族化合物对羊角月牙藻的急性毒性,运用分子连接性指数分析了化合物结构与其毒性之间的定量关系,并用逐一抽取法检验比较了模型的稳健性.