CHANGES IN WATER POLICY IN THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA1

ABSTRACT: Ideology has predisposed the People's Republic of China against the use of prices to allocate water. Prolonged drought in north China has made the Chinese more aware of their unfavorable water resource inventory and the expense of expanding supply. Therefore, as part of the economic liberalization commenced since the death of Mao Zedong, China has started to make more active use of pricing to regulate demand and reduce the need for supply expansion.     

碳中和愿景下电力部门低碳转型路径研究

碳中和愿景一方面加速了全社会电气化发展,致使电力需求持续增加,另一方面对尽早实现零碳电力提出要求,电力部门低碳转型进程更加紧迫而复杂。本文首先定性分析碳中和背景下电力部门的总体转型思路和技术不确定性影响,其次采用电力部门与终端部门耦合的C~3IAM/NET模型对电力需求进行预测,同时根据关键低碳技术发展的保守预期和积极预期设计多种情景,以开展电力低碳转型路径优化和成本效益研究。结果显示,发电碳排放量峰值可能出现在40亿～42亿吨,在2049—2060年有望实现零碳电力,电力部门低碳转型速度和效果因技术不确定性而存在明显差异。2021—2060年电力低碳转型累计投入为171万亿～180万亿元,CCS技术累计减排贡献超过250亿吨,可再生能源电力占比需达到68%以上,风电和光电将成为主要电力。     

Observations on the workshop as a means of improving communication between holders of traditional and scientific knowledge

Traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and the information and insights it offers to natural resource research and management have been given much attention in recent years. On the practical question of how TEK is accessed and used together with scientific knowledge, most work to date has examined documentation and methods of recording and disseminating information. Relatively little has been done regarding exchanges between scientific and traditional knowledge. This paper examines three workshop settings in which such exchanges were intended outcomes. The Barrow Symposium on Sea Ice, the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Restoration Program Synthesis/Information Workshops, and the Alaska Beluga Whale Committee illuminate certain features of the preparation, format, and context of workshops or series of workshops and their eventual outcomes and influence. The examples show the importance of long-term relationships among participants and thorough preparation before the actual workshop. Further research should look more systematically at the factors that influence the success of a given workshop and the various ways in which participants perceive success.     

COMPARISON OF METHODS TO ESTIMATE DEEP PERCOLATION RATES1

ABSTRACT: Deep percolation rates are normally estimated from a water balance. Results are presented of a study undertaken to evaluate three alternative methods of estimating percolation below the root zone when knowledge about the history of applied water and evapotranspiration are not available. The alternative methods are: 1) use of Darcy's equation to calculate deep percolation rate; 2) measurement of the soil temperature prof and calculation of the deep percolation rate from the shape of the temperature depth curve; and 3) measurement of the tritium concentration in the soil water and its relationship to the history of the tritium concentration in rainfall. At the principal study site, the Darcy velocity of flow ranged from 9 cm per year determined by the temperature method, to 40 cm per year determined by the tritium method. Darcy's equation to calculate seepage rates resulted in an estimation of deep seepage of 18 cm per year. An average deep percolation rate at the principal study site of 22 cm per year was determined using the average of all three methods. Results for other sites based on the temperature method indicated a lower seepage rate.     

Combining geodiversity with climate and topography to account for threatened species richness

Understanding threatened species diversity is important for long‐term conservation planning. Geodiversity—the diversity of Earth surface materials, forms, and processes—may be a useful biodiversity surrogate for conservation and have conservation value itself. Geodiversity and species richness relationships have been demonstrated; establishing whether geodiversity relates to threatened species’ diversity and distribution pattern is a logical next step for conservation. We used 4 geodiversity variables (rock‐type and soil‐type richness, geomorphological diversity, and hydrological feature diversity) and 4 climatic and topographic variables to model threatened species diversity across 31 of Finland's national parks. We also analyzed rarity‐weighted richness (a measure of site complementarity) of threatened vascular plants, fungi, bryophytes, and all species combined. Our 1‐km² resolution data set included 271 threatened species from 16 major taxa. We modeled threatened species richness (raw and rarity weighted) with boosted regression trees. Climatic variables, especially the annual temperature sum above 5 °C, dominated our models, which is consistent with the critical role of temperature in this boreal environment. Geodiversity added significant explanatory power. High geodiversity values were consistently associated with high threatened species richness across taxa. The combined effect of geodiversity variables was even more pronounced in the rarity‐weighted richness analyses (except for fungi) than in those for species richness. Geodiversity measures correlated most strongly with species richness (raw and rarity weighted) of threatened vascular plants and bryophytes and were weakest for molluscs, lichens, and mammals. Although simple measures of topography improve biodiversity modeling, our results suggest that geodiversity data relating to geology, landforms, and hydrology are also worth including. This reinforces recent arguments that conserving nature's stage is an important principle in conservation.     

Decision‐Making Triggers in Adaptive Management

We analyzed whether decision‐making triggers increase accountability of adaptive‐management plans. Triggers are prenegotiated commitments in an adaptive‐management plan that specify what actions are to be taken and when on the basis of information obtained from monitoring. Triggers improve certainty that particular actions will be taken by agencies in the future. We conducted an in‐depth, qualitative review of the political and legal contexts of adaptive management and its application by U.S. federal agencies. Agencies must satisfy the judiciary that adaptive‐management plans meet substantive legal standards and comply with the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act. We examined 3 cases in which triggers were used in adaptive‐management plans: salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in the Columbia River, oil and gas development by the Bureau of Land Management, and a habitat conservation plan under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. In all the cases, key aspects of adaptive management, including controls and preidentified feedback loops, were not incorporated in the plans. Monitoring and triggered mitigation actions were limited in their enforceability, which was contingent on several factors, including which laws applied in each case and the degree of specificity in how triggers were written into plans. Other controversial aspects of these plans revolved around who designed, conducted, interpreted, and funded monitoring programs. Additional contentious issues were the level of precaution associated with trigger mechanisms and the definition of ecological baselines used as points of comparison. Despite these challenges, triggers can be used to increase accountability, by predefining points at which an adaptive management plan will be revisited and reevaluated, and thus improve the application of adaptive management in its complicated political and legal context. Detonadores de la Toma de Decisiones en el Manejo Adaptativo     

Heterozygosity‐Fitness Correlations and Inbreeding Depression in Two Critically Endangered Mammals

The relation among inbreeding, heterozygosity, and fitness has been studied primarily among outbred populations, and little is known about these phenomena in endangered populations. Most researchers conclude that the relation between coefficient of inbreeding estimated from pedigrees and fitness traits (inbreeding‐fitness correlations) better reflects inbreeding depression than the relation between marker heterozygosity and fitness traits (heterozygosity‐fitness correlations). However, it has been suggested recently that heterozygosity‐fitness correlations should only be expected when inbreeding generates extensive identity disequilibrium (correlations in heterozygosity and homozygosity across loci throughout the genome). We tested this hypothesis in Mohor gazelle (Gazella dama mhorr) and Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus). For Mohor gazelle, we calculated the inbreeding coefficient and measured heterozygosity at 17 microsatellite loci. For Iberian lynx, we measured heterozygosity at 36 microsatellite loci. In both species we estimated semen quality, a phenotypic trait directly related to fitness that is controlled by many loci and is affected by inbreeding depression. Both species showed evidence of extensive identity disequilibrium, and in both species heterozygosity was associated with semen quality. In the Iberian lynx the low proportion of normal sperm associated with low levels of heterozygosity was so extreme that it is likely to limit the fertility of males. In Mohor gazelle, although heterozygosity was associated with semen quality, inbreeding coefficient was not. This result suggests that when coefficient of inbreeding is calculated on the basis of a genealogy that begins after a long history of inbreeding, the coefficient of inbreeding fails to capture previous demographic information because it is a poor estimator of accumulated individual inbreeding. We conclude that among highly endangered species with extensive identity disequilibrium, examination of heterozygosity‐fitness correlations may be an effective way to detect inbreeding depression, whereas inbreeding‐fitness correlations may be poor indicators of inbreeding depression if the pedigree does not accurately reflect the history of inbreeding. Correlaciones Heterocigosidad‐ Adaptabilidad y Depresión Endogámica en Dos Especies de Mamíferos Críticamente en Peligro     

Intraspecific Chromosome Number Variation: a Neglected Threat to the Conservation of Rare Plants

Abstract: The effectiveness of rare plant conservation will increase when life history, demographic, and genetic data are considered simultaneously. Inbreeding depression is a widely recognized genetic concern in rare plant conservation, and the mixing of genetically diverse populations in restoration efforts is a common remedy. Nevertheless, if populations with unrecognized intraspecific chromosome variation are crossed, progeny fitness losses will range from partial to complete sterility, and reintroductions and population augmentation of rare plants may fail. To assess the current state of cytological knowledge of threatened and endangered plants in the continental United States, we searched available resources for chromosome counts. We also reviewed recovery plans to discern whether recovery criteria potentially place listed species at risk by requiring reintroductions or population augmentation in the absence of cytological information. Over half the plants lacked a chromosome count, and when a taxon did have a count it generally originated from a sampling intensity too limited to detect intraspecific chromosome variation. Despite limited past cytological sampling, we found 11 plants with documented intraspecific cytological variation, while 8 others were ambiguous for intraspecific chromosome variation. Nevertheless, only one recovery plan addressed the chromosome differences. Inadequate within‐species cytological characterization, incomplete sampling among listed taxa, and the prevalence of interspecific and intraspecific chromosome variation in listed genera, suggests that other rare plants are likely to have intraspecific chromosome variation. Nearly 90% of all recovery plans called for reintroductions or population augmentation as part of recovery criteria despite the dearth of cytological knowledge. We recommend screening rare plants for intraspecific chromosome variation before reintroductions or population augmentation projects are undertaken to safeguard against inadvertent mixtures of incompatible cytotypes.     

Simplified model for the evaluation of the effects of explosions on industrial target

The evaluation of vulnerability of process equipment to explosion is a central issue in the analysis of industrial risks. In this work, we have developed a simplified model, however based on fundamental equations, which includes structural and fluid–dynamic parameters for the target (the industrial equipment) and for the impacting pressure wave (shock waves) or object (fragment, debris) produced by different type of chemical explosions.The validity of methodology has been assessed by case histories. Several insights on the dynamic of structural interaction of the explosion with the target have been obtained, with specific reference to escalation effects.The model derives from the well-known Johnson's number, often adopted in impact engineering.     

An Analysis of Spatial Clustering and Implications for Wildlife Management: A Burrowing Owl Example

Analysis tools that combine large spatial and temporal scales are necessary for efficient management of wildlife species, such as the burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia). We assessed the ability of Ripley’s K-function analysis integrated into a geographic information system (GIS) to determine changes in burrowing owl nest clustering over two years at NASA Ames Research Center. Specifically, we used these tools to detect changes in spatial and temporal nest clustering before, during, and after conducting management by mowing to maintain low vegetation height at nest burrows. We found that the scale and timing of owl nest clustering matched the scale and timing of our conservation management actions over a short time frame. While this study could not determine a causal link between mowing and nest clustering, we did find that Ripley’s K and GIS were effective in detecting owl nest clustering and show promise for future conservation uses.