THE LEGAL‐INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS MODEL AND WATER POLICYMAKING IN A BI‐NATIONAL SETTING1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports the use of a water negotiation model, the Legal‐Institutional Analysis Model (LIAM), in the bi‐national setting of the U.S. and Mexico in the Paso del Norte region. The following study discusses the results of developing baseline data where interstate, international, and cultural factors, as well as a long history of conflict, impact on negotiations and the extent to which the LIAM is a valuable tool for analyzing behavior among institutional actors in such a setting. The findings suggest that most water policy actors in the region prefer brokered solutions as defined within the LIAM framework.     

The role of psychology in determining human–predator conflict across southern Kenya

Conflict between people and carnivores can lead to the widespread killing of predators in retaliation for livestock loss and is a major threat to predator populations. In Kenya, a large, rural, pastoralist population comes into regular conflict with predators, which persist across southern Kenya. We explored the social and psychological backdrop to livestock management practices in this area in a process designed to be easy to use and suitable for use across large areas for the study of conflict and transboundary implementation of wildlife conflict reduction measures, focusing on community involvement and needs. We carried out fully structured interviews of livestock managers with a survey tool that examined how social and psychological factors may influence livestock management behavior. We compared survey responses on 3 sites across the study area, resulting in 723 usable responses. Efficacy of individuals’ livestock management varied between and within communities. This variation was partially explained by normative and control beliefs regarding livestock management. Individual livestock managers’ self-reported management issues were often an accurate reflection of their practical management difficulties. Psychological norms, control beliefs, and attitudes differed among sites, and these differences partially explained patterns associated with conflict (i.e., variation in livestock management behavior). Thus, we conclude that a one-size-fits-all approach to improving livestock management and reducing human–predator conflict is not suitable.     

Shift of Spawning Season and Effects of Climate Warming on Developmental Stages of a Grayling (Salmonidae)

Abstract: River‐dwelling fish, such as European graylings (Thymallus thymallus), are susceptible to changes in climate because they can often not avoid suboptimal temperatures, especially during early developmental stages. We analyzed data collected in a 62‐year‐long (1948–2009) population monitoring program. Male and female graylings were sampled about three times/week during the yearly spawning season in order to follow the development of the population. The occurrence of females bearing ripe eggs was used to approximate the timing of each spawning season. In the last years of the study, spawning season was more than 3 weeks earlier than in the first years. This shift was linked to increasing water temperatures as recorded over the last 39 years with a temperature logger at the spawning site. In early spring water temperatures rose more slowly than in later spring. Thus, embryos and larvae were exposed to increasingly colder water at a stage that is critical for sex determination and pathogen resistance in other salmonids. In summer, however, fry were exposed to increasingly warmer temperatures. The changes in water temperatures that we found embryos, larvae, and fry were exposed to could be contributing to the decline in abundance that has occurred over the last 30–40 years.     

Selecting for Tolerance against Pathogens and Herbivores to Enhance Success of Reintroduction and Translocation

Abstract: Some species have insufficient defenses against climate change, emerging infectious diseases, and non‐native species because they have not been exposed to these factors over their evolutionary history, and this can decrease their likelihood of persistence. Captive breeding programs are sometimes used to reintroduce individuals back into the wild; however, successful captive breeding and reintroduction can be difficult because species or populations often cannot coexist with non‐native pathogens and herbivores without artificial selection. In captive breeding programs, breeders can select for host defenses that prevent or reduce pathogen or herbivore burden (i.e., resistance) or traits that limit the effects of parasitism or herbivory on host fitness (i.e., tolerance). We propose that selection for host tolerance may enhance the success of reintroduction or translocation because tolerant hosts generally have neutral effects on introduced pathogens and herbivores. The release of resistant hosts would have detrimental effects on their natural enemies, promoting rapid evolution to circumvent the host resistance that may reduce the long‐term probability of persistence of the reintroduced or translocated species. We examined 2 case studies, one on the pathogenic amphibian chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis [Bd]) and the other on the herbivorous cactus moth ( Cactoblastis cactorum) in the United States, where it is not native. In each case study, we provide recommendations for how captive breeders and managers could go about selecting for host tolerance. Selecting for tolerance may offer a promising tool to rescue hosts species from invasive natural enemies as well as new natural enemies associated with climate change‐induced range shifts.     

Using deep-belief networks to understand propensity for livelihood change in a rural coastal community to further conservation

Overharvesting of terrestrial and marine resources may be alleviated by encouraging an alternative configuration of livelihoods, particularly in rural communities in developing countries. Typical occupations in such areas include fishing and farming, and rural households often switch livelihood activities to suit climate and economic conditions. We used a machine-learning tool, deep-belief networks (DBN), and data from surveys of a rural Philippine coastal community to examine household desire to change livelihood. This desire is affected by a variety of factors, such as income, family needs, and feelings of work satisfaction, that are interrelated in complex ways. In farming households, livelihood changes often occur to diversify resources, increase income, and lessen economic risk. The DBN, given its multilayer perceptron structure, has a capacity to model nonlinear relationships among factors while providing an acceptable degree of accuracy. Relative to a set of 34 features (e.g., education, boat ownership, and work satisfaction), we examined the binary response variables desire to change work or not to change work. The best network had a test set accuracy of 97.5%. Among the features, 7 significantly affected desire to shift work: ethnicity, work satisfaction, number of persons in a household in ill health, number of fighting cocks owned, fishing engagement, buy-and-sell revenue, and educational level. A cross-correlation matrix of these 7 features indicated households less inclined to change work were those engaged in fishing and retail buying and selling. For fishing, provision of economic and other incentives should be considered to encourage changing from this occupation to allow recovery of fishery resources.     

Habitat-tree protection concepts over 200 years

The protection and sustainable management of habitat trees is an integral part of modern forest nature conservation concepts such as retention forestry. Bats, cavity-nesting birds, arboreal marsupials, and many different saproxylic species depend on habitat trees and their great variety of microhabitats and old-growth characteristics. With a focus on insights from temperate forests, we traced the development of habitat-tree protection over 200 years. The idea was first conceptualized by foresters and natural scientists in the early 19th century. At that time, utilitarian conservation aimed to protect cavity trees that provided roosts and nesting holes for insectivorous bats and birds. By the second half of the 19th century, habitat-tree protection was well known to foresters and was occasionally implemented. Knowledge of the protection of large old trees, a special kind of habitat tree, for sociocultural and aesthetic reasons developed similarly. But, many foresters of that time and in the following decades fundamentally rejected protection of habitat trees for economic reasons. Beginning in the 1970s, forest conservation and integrative forest management became increasingly important issues worldwide. Since then, the protection of habitat trees has been implemented on a large scale. Long-term views on the development of conservation concepts are important to inform the implementation of conservation today. In particular, historical analyses of conservation concepts allow the testing of long-term conservation outcomes and make it possible to study the resilience of conservation approaches to changing social or ecological conditions. We encourage all conservation ecologists to assess the practical and conceptual impact of the initial ideas that led to modern conservation concepts in terms of long-term biodiversity conservation.     

The need for ecocentrism in biodiversity conservation

Over the past 5 decades, scientists have been documenting negative anthropogenic environmental change, expressing increasing alarm, and urging dramatic socioecological transformation in response. A host of international meetings have been held, but the erosion of biological diversity continues to accelerate. Why, then, has no effective political action been taken? We contend that part of the answer may lie in the anthropocentric ethical premises and moral rhetoric typically deployed in the cause of conservation. We further argue that it is essential to advance moral arguments for biodiversity conservation that are not just based on perceived human interests but on ecocentric values, namely, convictions that species and ecosystems have value and interests that should be respected regardless of whether they serve human needs and aspirations. A broader array of moral rationales for biodiversity conservation, we conclude, would be more likely to lead to effective plans, adopted and enforced by governments, designed to conserve biological diversity. A good place to start in this regard would be to explicitly incorporate ecocentric values into the recommendations that will be made at the conclusion of the 15th meeting of the parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, scheduled to be held in October 2020.     

The Why,What, and How of Global Biodiversity Indicators Beyond the 2010 Target

Abstract: The 2010 biodiversity target agreed by signatories to the Convention on Biological Diversity directed the attention of conservation professionals toward the development of indicators with which to measure changes in biological diversity at the global scale. We considered why global biodiversity indicators are needed, what characteristics successful global indicators have, and how existing indicators perform. Because monitoring could absorb a large proportion of funds available for conservation, we believe indicators should be linked explicitly to monitoring objectives and decisions about which monitoring schemes deserve funding should be informed by predictions of the value of such schemes to decision making. We suggest that raising awareness among the public and policy makers, auditing management actions, and informing policy choices are the most important global monitoring objectives. Using four well‐developed indicators of biological diversity (extent of forests, coverage of protected areas, Living Planet Index, Red List Index) as examples, we analyzed the characteristics needed for indicators to meet these objectives. We recommend that conservation professionals improve on existing indicators by eliminating spatial biases in data availability, fill gaps in information about ecosystems other than forests, and improve understanding of the way indicators respond to policy changes. Monitoring is not an end in itself, and we believe it is vital that the ultimate objectives of global monitoring of biological diversity inform development of new indicators.     

Carbon Payments and Low‐Cost Conservation

Abstract: A price on carbon is expected to generate demand for carbon offset schemes. This demand could drive investment in tree‐based monocultures that provide higher carbon yields than diverse plantings of native tree and shrub species, which sequester less carbon but provide greater variation in vegetation structure and composition. Economic instruments such as species conservation banking, the creation and trading of credits that represent biological‐diversity values on private land, could close the financial gap between monocultures and more diverse plantings by providing payments to individuals who plant diverse species in locations that contribute to conservation and restoration goals. We studied a highly modified agricultural system in southern Australia that is typical of many temperate agriculture zones globally (i.e., has a high proportion of endangered species, high levels of habitat fragmentation, and presence of non‐native species). We quantified the economic returns from agriculture and from carbon plantings (monoculture and mixed tree and shrubs) under six carbon‐price scenarios. We also identified high‐priority locations for restoration of cleared landscapes with mixed tree and shrub carbon plantings. Depending on the price of carbon, direct annual payments to landowners of AU$7/ha/year to $125/ha/year (US$6–120/ha/year) may be sufficient to augment economic returns from a carbon market and encourage tree plantings that contribute more to the restoration of natural systems and endangered species habitats than monocultures. Thus, areas of high priority for conservation and restoration may be restored relatively cheaply in the presence of a carbon market. Overall, however, less carbon is sequestered by mixed native tree and shrub plantings.     

Epiphyte Biodiversity in the Coffee Agricultural Matrix: Canopy Stratification and Distance from Forest Fragments

Abstract: Quality of the agricultural matrix profoundly affects biodiversity and dispersal in agricultural areas. Vegetatively complex coffee agroecosystems maintain species richness at larger distances from the forest. Epiphytes colonize canopy trees and provide resources for birds and insects and thus effects of agricultural production on epiphytes may affect other species. We compared diversity, composition, and vertical stratification of epiphytes in a forest fragment and in two coffee farms differing in management intensity in southern Mexico. We also examined spatial distribution of epiphytes with respect to the forest fragment to examine quality of the two agricultural matrix types for epiphyte conservation. We sampled vascular epiphytes in a forest fragment, a shade polyculture farm, and a shade monoculture farm at 100 m, 200 m, and 400 m from the forest. Epiphyte and orchid richness was greater in the forest than in the monoculture but richness was similar in the forest and polyculture farm. Epiphyte species composition differed with habitat type, but not with distance from the forest. In the forest, epiphytes were distributed throughout tree canopies, but in the farms, epiphytes were primarily found on trunks and larger branches. Epiphyte richness and species similarity to forest species declined with distance from the forest fragment in the monoculture, but richness and similarity to forest species did not decline with distance from forest in the polyculture. This suggests polyculture coffee has greater conservation value. In contrast, monoculture coffee is likely a sink habitat for epiphytes dispersing from forests into coffee. Coffee farms differ from forests in terms of the habitat they provide and species composition, thus protecting forest fragments is essential for epiphyte conservation. Nonetheless, in agricultural landscapes, vegetatively complex coffee farms may contribute to conservation of epiphytes more than other agricultural land uses.