混沌理论在水质预测中的应用初探

基于混沌理论、相空间重构思想和嵌入理论分析涟水流域溶解氧的时间序列,计算吸引子维数和最大的Lyapunov指数,研究河流水质系统的复杂性特征。结果表明,河流水质时间序列具有混沌特性,其外在表现为貌似随机的无规则特点;但系统本身内在的、固有的规律(表现在最大的Lyapunov指数),表明短期预测河流水质变化是可行的,并应用混沌相空间模线性回归模型进行了短期预测,其预测结果对涟水流域的水质管理和控制具有一定的参考价值。     

基于维纳过程的MEMS陀螺仪贮存寿命评估

目的 针对MEMS陀螺仪在步进应力加速试验条件下获取的性能退化数据,提出基于维纳过程的贮存寿命评估方法及其模型准确度检验方法。方法 首先,确定温度为影响MEMS陀螺仪性能退化的主要环境因素,采用步进温度应力加速试验的方式获取其性能退化数据。其次,分析各项性能参数的演变规律,确定标度因数为表征产品性能退化的特征性能参数。最后,采用漂移维纳过程对标度因数退化轨迹进行建模,并外推得到常温条件下的贮存寿命。结果 采用留一法对模型精度进行验证,模型准确度最低为86.44%。可靠度水平为0.95时,常温贮存(25 ℃)条件下的寿命评估结果为50.02 a。结论 基于维纳过程建立的性能退化模型的准确度在85%以上,该模型可应用于指定贮存条件下MEMS陀螺仪的性能退化预测及贮存寿命评估。     

黄土丘陵区不同地貌单元土壤有机碳空间变异的尺度效应

运用地统计学和GIS相结合的方法,研究了黄土丘陵区县域不同地貌单元土壤有机碳空间变异的尺度效应,尺度划分为县域、县域上三种不同的地貌单元以及与地貌单元相对应的乡镇尺度,结果表明：①各个尺度下有机碳含量均偏低,完整地貌单元尺度与乡镇尺度有机碳均值与变异系数大小顺序不同;②高山区随着尺度的变化,自然因素对变异的影响程度没有显著变化,但低山丘陵区与丘陵沟壑区自然因素的影响程度减小,插值图表现出较小的研究面积有机碳含量信息更丰富;③县域尺度上海拔与土壤类型是导致变异的主控因素,在丘陵沟壑区,所研究的自然因素（海拔、土壤类型、土壤侵蚀程度、田面坡度、坡向）对其影响都不显著;在低山丘陵区,地貌单元上主控因子是海拔与土壤类型,而乡镇尺度上转化为田面坡度;在高山区,地貌单元上主控因子是土壤类型,但乡镇尺度上其主要影响因素变为土壤侵蚀程度。     

西南地区旱涝特征及其趋势预测

应用Z指数和标准化降水指数SPI,结合REOF方法和Hurst 指数对西南地区旱涝等级及其时空分布规律、演变趋势进行分析和预测,结果表明:SPI 和Z指数的计算结果和现实情况较一致,从多年平均值来看,云南的中甸及四川的石渠、德格等地干旱指数处于低值区,属重旱区。贵州和广西及云南南部部分地区属易涝区。逐年的SPI 和Z指数结果大体一致,2000 年以后,干旱指数波动较大。通过REOF分析,Z指数的分布大致分为川西区、川东(包括渝)区、云贵(包括广西北部)区、广南四个区域。云贵区Z指数总体呈下降趋势,涝情呈减弱趋势;川西区在1964 年至1973 年间干旱严重,1995 年以后变化相对稳定,但干旱也时有发生;川东区旱涝变化不显著。经Hurst 指数分析,西南五省市未来的旱涝情况大致为干旱程度呈逐步加大的态势,洪涝程度呈较弱的逐步减小态势。     

河谷型城市城乡结合部景观格局空间尺度效应分析——以兰州市西固区土地利用格局为例

以兰州市西固区土地利用格局为例,利用2005年SPOT5遥感影像和正射航空影像数据,选取14个常用的景观指数,从景观水平和类型水平2个方面分析景观指数随尺度变化的基本规律,采用200m×200m正方形将研究区土地利用数据切分成规则格网,计算每个格网的多样性指数,通过半方差分析研究西固区多样性空间结构特征。结果表明:10m是西固区土地利用景观的本征观测尺度;研究区景观类型和景观格局特征随尺度增大变化显著,体现出一定的尺度依赖性;各乡(镇、街道)的景观指数呈现出城市中心—城乡交错带—乡村的分异特征,梯度变化明显;西固区多样性空间分布属于中等强度空间相关,高值区主要分布于黄河沿岸。     

Simulating mesoscale transport and diffusion of radioactive noble gases using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model

In order to simulate the impact of mesoscale wind fields and to assess potential capability of atmospheric Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM) as an emergency response model for the decision supports, two different simulations of LPDM with the mesoscale prognostic model MM5 (Mesoscale Model ver. 5) were driven. The first simulation of radioactive noble gas ((85)Kr exponent) emitted during JCO accident occurred from 30 September to 3 October 1999 at Tokai, Japan showed that the first arriving short pulse was found in Tsukuba located at 60km away from the accidental area. However, the released radioactive noble gas was transported back to the origin site about 2 days later due to the mesoscale meteorological wind circulation, enhancing the levels of (85)Kr with the secondary peak in Tsukuba. The second simulation of atmospheric dilution factors (the ratio of concentration to the emission rate, chi/Q), during the underground nuclear test (UNT) performed by North Korea showed that high chi/Q moved to the eastward and extended toward southward in accordance with the mesoscale atmospheric circulations generated by mesoscale prognostic model MM5. In comparison with the measurements, the simulated horizontal distribution patterns of (85)Kr during the JCO are well accord with that of observation in Tsukuba such as the existence of secondary peak which is associated with the mesoscale circulations. However, the simulated level of (85)Kr anomaly was found to be significantly lower than the observations, and some interpretations on these discrepancies were described. Applications of LPDM to two mesoscale emergency response dispersion cases suggest the potential capability of LPDM to be used as a decision support model provided accurate emission rate of accident in case of a large accident.     

Scientists' opinions on the global status and management of biological diversity

The large investments needed if loss of biological diversity is to be stemmed will likely lead to increased public and political scrutiny of conservation strategies and the science underlying them. It is therefore crucial to understand the degree of consensus or divergence among scientists on core scientific perceptions and strategies most likely to achieve given objectives. I developed an internet survey designed to elucidate the opinions of conservation scientists. Conservation scientists (n =583) were unanimous (99.5%) in their view that a serious loss of biological diversity is likely, very likely, or virtually certain. Scientists' agreement that serious loss is very likely or virtually certain ranged from 72.8% for Western Europe to 90.9% for Southeast Asia. Tropical coral ecosystems were perceived as the most seriously affected by loss of biological diversity; 88.0% of respondents familiar with that ecosystem type agreed that a serious loss is very likely or virtually certain. With regard to conservation strategies, scientists most often viewed understanding how people and nature interact in certain contexts and the role of biological diversity in maintaining ecosystem function as their priorities. Protection of biological diversity for its cultural and spiritual values and because of its usefulness to humans were low priorities, which suggests that many scientists do not fully support the utilitarian concept of ecosystem services. Many scientists expressed a willingness to consider conservation triage, engage in active conservation interventions, and consider reframing conservation goals and measures of success for conservation of biological diversity in an era of climate change. Although some heterogeneity of opinion is evident, results of the survey show a clear consensus within the scientific community on core issues of the extent and geographic scope of loss of biological diversity and on elements that may contribute to successful conservation strategies in the future.     

广州地区大气棕色碳气溶胶光吸收特性

2014年冬季在广州番禺站利用校正后的7波段黑碳仪数据,计算棕色碳(BrC)在不同波长的光吸收特性,并结合气溶胶及气体成分在线监测仪(MARGA)和在线OCEC分析仪同步观测数据,分析了BrC的来源.结果表明:BrC在370、470、520、590和660 nm处对光吸收的贡献随波长增大而变小,不同波段的贡献分别为25. 9%、19. 7%、14. 1%、11. 6%和7. 7%; BrC光吸收系数、水溶性钾离子(K~+)和有机碳(OC)浓度大致呈现日间低,夜间高的趋势,说明生物质燃烧产物对BrC的光吸收系数贡献很大,傍晚附近农村地区逐渐活跃的秸秆燃烧活动和夜间稳定的边界层也有利于污染物累积; BrC光吸收系数与OC的比值在午后出现低值,说明二次有机气溶胶和老化的气溶胶的吸光能力较弱.相关性分析表明,BrC光吸收系数与K+离子和OC浓度的相关性最高,BrC光吸收系数与硝酸根(NO_3~-)和铵根(NH_4~+)离子也具有较高的相关性.     

郑州地区大气气溶胶光学特性的地基遥感研究

根据自动跟踪扫描光度计观测资料,利用Bouguer-Lamber定律反演郑州地区2007年2~9月气溶胶光学厚度和波长指数,分析郑州地区该时段气溶胶光学特性的季节变化和日变化情况.结果表明,郑州地区2007年2~9月1020nm气溶胶光学厚度为0.49±0.09;870nm气溶胶光学厚度为0.60±0.13;670nm气溶胶光学厚度为0.76±0.20;440nm气溶胶光学厚度为1.08±0.34.季节变化以夏季最高,秋冬次之,春季最低.波长指数春季为0.37~0.69,夏季为1.18~1.26.春季有50%以上的天气,扬尘粒子为主控粒子,而夏季城市-工业气溶胶是主控粒子之一.日变化规律与近地面污染物浓度变化一致,8:30和17:00左右出现峰值,11:30出现谷值,由于气温上升,湍流剧烈,12:30左右气溶胶光学厚度有1个小高峰,但仍处于全天的低值区.     

Phenes of Woody Plants: Identification,Scaling, and Use in Population Studies (An Example of Pinus sylvestrisL.)

The methods of identification and scaling of phenes of forest plants are described. The phene identification consists of five stages. Specific features of studies at each stage are shown using identification of the phenes of seed color, cone color, and seed scale structure in Scotch pine (Pinus sylvestrisL.) as examples. The method of phene scaling is based on the comparison of phene frequencies in a bog and in adjacent upland populations of pine. At the boundary between the bog and dry land, the frequencies of population-level phenes change, whereas those of superpopulation-level phenes remain unchanged.