海绵城市规划指标分解案例研究——以北京A新城为例

设计指标分解是海绵城市规划设计的重难点,但目前并没有统一的标准来指导实践.为探索海绵城市规划指标分解方法,以A新城海绵城市专项规划为例,将年径流总量控制率、控制容积作为控制性指标,下沉式绿地率、透水铺装率、绿色屋顶率和调蓄容积作为引导性指标,结合建设情况、汇水面种类及构成情况等条件,利用海绵城市规划设计辅助计算软件加权...     

成渝经济区火电发展的大气环境影响

基于CALPUFF模型,以2007年为基准年,根据成渝经济区基准年火电SO₂排放量、2008—2009年国家核定的火电SO₂减排量(20.9×104 t)、“十二五”年地方计划火电SO₂减排量(18.5×104 t)以及地方愿景下的“十二五”期间新增火电SO₂排放量,设计3种不同排放情景,并且对不同情景下的ρ(SO₂)分布特征进行了模拟. 结果表明:2008年和2009年成渝经济区的火电SO₂减排使成渝经济区的ρ(SO₂)年均值比2007年平均降低了18.9%;“十二五”新增火电装机将会使成渝经济区的ρ(SO₂)年均值比2007年平均升高20.7%. 虽然通过工程减排及“上大压小”的方式减缓了新增火电机组带来的影响,但从空间分布来看,ρ(SO₂)增加的局部地区与酸雨严重的地区高度重合,导致该区域酸雨污染风险依然存在.      

基于动态贝叶斯网络的民航突发事件情景分析研究

航空运输重大突发事件的应急准备与处置存在问题,应急救援效果不甚理想。建立了基于灾害体、受灾体、孕灾环境以及抗灾体四要素的突发事件情景分析模型,并运用动态贝叶斯网络模型,构建了基于关键时间节点的突发事件情景演化模型。基于上述模型,以某航班降落时起落架故障的典型事件为例进行模型构建与分析,分析结果验证该模型运用于民航突发事件情景分析与评估的合理性和可行性。该模型为提高民航突发事件应急准备与处置能力提供了新的思路与方法。     

Land-use planning via enhanced multi-objective evolutionary algorithms: optimizing the land value of major Greenfield initiatives

The successful implementation of major development initiatives relies on the sound allocation of land uses against critical design criteria and constraints. The discovery of optimum development plans introduces severe complexities in formulating and solving the underlying multi-objective optimization problem. Moreover, in the presence of conflicting planning criteria decision-makers should be provided with a set of alterative-yet-optimum solutions that uniformly cover the spectrum of feasible maps. The introduction of sophisticated optimization algorithms addresses this challenge by pursuing a complete approximation of the Pareto front containing all prominent spatial allocations. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of a new evolutionary algorithm (UDT-MOEA) against the results of an established multi-objective genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) when applied on a major greenfield initiative against the optimum location(s), size and shape of three new land uses. Each algorithm performs best in different areas of the feasible objective space, providing planning alternatives with distinct characteristics.     

An interval joint-probabilistic programming method for solid waste management: a case study for the city of Tianjin, China

Currently, environmental protection and resources conservation continue to be challenges faced by solid-waste managers in China. These challenges are being further compounded by rapid socioeconomic devel- opment and population growth associated with increased waste generation rates and decreased waste disposal capacities. In response to these challenges, an interval joint-probabilistic mixed-integer programming （IJMP） method is developed for supporting long-term planning of waste management activities in the city of Tianjin, which is one of the largest municipalities in the northern part of China. In the IJMP, joint probabilistic constraints are introduced into an interval-parameter mixed-integer programming framework, such that uncertainties presented in terms of interval values and random variables can be reflected. Moreover, a number of violation levels for the waste-management-capacity constraints are examined, which can facilitate in-depth analyses of tradeoffs among economic objective and system-failure risk. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated. They are valuable for supporting the adjustment of the city＇s existing waste-management practices and the long- term planning of the city＇s waste-management facilities.     

基于情景分析的北京市机动车污染排放控制研究

为了研究未来北京市机动车排放控制措施的减排效果,本文基于情景分析法,以2010年为基准年,通过设置3类控制措施情景,估算2011~2020年不同情景下北京市机动车常规污染物排放量,并在基准情景基础上,估算污染物减排量,分析控制措施对不同类型机动车的减排贡献.结果表明,尽管未来北京市机动车保有量会有较大增长,实施机动车排放控制措施仍可取得显著的减排效果.单一措施中,淘汰高排放车减排量最大.其中,淘汰轻型客车可有效减少CO的排放,减排贡献率为89.4%;淘汰重型客车可对NOx、HC和PM10达到有效削减,其贡献率分别为65.5%、55.8%、93.4%.实施新的排放标准对重型柴油车的排放也有明显控制效果,且4种污染物都能得到有效削减.综合实施各种措施的效果最为显著,2020年对CO、NOx、HC、PM10的削减效果分别达到46.4%、42.1%、8.6%和50.6%.     

基于区域环境风险评价的产业布局规划优化研究

区域环境风险评价相比单个项目的评价具有信息相对缺乏、风险因素多,风险叠加难度大等特点.信息扩散法可有效应对评价信息不足问题,通过构建和运行风险信息矩阵实现对多个环境风险源的风险值叠加,并最终形成风险分区图以指导区域布局优化和风险管理.本研究结合广州南沙地区发展规划,应用信息扩散法对区域现有及规划风险源进行综合评估,并得出区域综合环境风险4级分区.评价结果显示,规划的石化基地布局不合理,将大幅增加区域环境风险等级,提出放弃该产业规划或重新选址,该建议得到最终决策的支持.建议区域开发在规划的初始阶段就考虑开展环境风险评价,以此论证区域功能划分和产业布局的环境合理性,实现优化区域开发和加强区域环境风险防控的目的.     

‘Schismo‐urbanism’: cities,natural disaster,and urban sociology

This paper examines a city and a natural disaster, specifically New Orleans, Louisiana, after Hurricane Katrina of August 2005. Recovery here is ongoing and the process of return is incomplete, with long‐term dislocation to other cities in the United States, such as Houston, Texas. The question arises as to how planning and stratification influence evacuation and return/dislocation and how they result in a particular practice of adaptation. This interrelated process is conceptually integrated and termed ‘schismo‐urbanism’ and is analysed within a multidimensional theoretical framework to evaluate aspects of urban sociology and natural disasters. Empirical research is based on a quantitative and qualitative mixed‐method case study. Data were collected during two rounds of field research in New Orleans and Houston in 2007 and 2009. As a comparative socio‐spatial study of affected and receptor communities, it makes a novel theoretical and methodological contribution to research on urban disasters in the context of continuing and rapid social change, and is targeted at disaster researchers, planning theorists and practitioners, and urbanists.     

A multilevel analysis of private-vehicle evacuation clearance times along the US Gulf Coast

This study uses multilevel regression analysis to examine the effect of social characteristics and the built environment on clearance time under an evacuation scenario. The primary unit of analysis is the US Census tract (N?=?1660), nested within 31 incorporated places spanning five US states. The dependent variable is an estimate of clearance time in hours derived using network analysis techniques within a geographic information system. We find that tracts with a more peripheral location, more female residents, a higher proportion of Hispanic residents, and higher median household incomes are associated with higher clearance times, on average. Our research suggests the relationship between suburbanization and clearance time is complex and evolving, mediated by past investments in the built environment and shifting social conditions. In addition to facilitating the evacuation of areas with low access to personal vehicles, urban planners and emergency management officials should also consider how the degree of connectivity in the street network impacts congestion and clearance time.     

Ecological planning for promoting urban sustainable development: A case study of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone,China

Based on the case study of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, China, this paper investigates the theories and application of ecological planning for promoting urban sustainable development. The stated significance of such development is to promote the co-ordination of relationships between man and nature, and man and the environment.