基于随机森林的耕地利用效率测度模型构建及其应用

构建合适的量化分析模型是科学把握耕地利用状况及利用效率的基础性工作,可为制定合理有效的耕地资源管控政策,实现耕地利用与生态环境的协调发展提供决策依据。为了更准确地反映耕地利用系统的复杂性、动态性及差异性等特征,鉴于随机森林的基本思想,运用随机抽样Bootstrap法在合理构建分类树的基础上,构造了耕地利用效率测度的RF模型,进而以中国粮食主产区172个城市为例训练该模型并将其运用至2003-2015年的耕地利用效率测度中,同时将BP神经网络和熵权法作为对比验证其一致性、代表性和优越性。结果表明：（1）耕地利用效率测度的RF模型不受量纲限制,运行所需参数少,运算过程简化,能够较为精确地模拟各评价指标间的复杂联系,科学量化各评价指标对耕地利用效率的贡献。（2）对同一空间单元的效率值而言,RF>BPNN>EW,RF与BPNN所得效率值的总体分布格局相似,且均与EW的测度结果存在较大差异。（3）从评价结果与现实的匹配度和精度表征参数来看,RF的测度结果与自然和社会经济发展等客观事实更相符,具有较高的适用性与可靠性。同时,与其余两种常用模型相比,RF能够降低计算复杂度,提高训练效率,其测度结果的相关系数R为0.8685,M_RPD为2.3533,且具有最小M_MSE0.0174和M_MAE0.0211,更适用于复杂非线性特征的耕地利用效率研究。     

京津冀城市群冬季二次PM2.5的时空分布特征

二次组分是造成京津冀城市群冬季PM_2.5污染的重要因素.采用CO示踪法,估算2017～2021年冬季京津冀城市群二次PM_2.5浓度,并分析其时空分布特征,探讨区域二次PM_2.5的影响因素.结果表明,2017～2021年冬季京津冀区域PM_2.5浓度下降趋势明显,河北中南部一次PM_2.5下降幅度最大,二次PM_2.5浓度年际波动平稳,北京和天津二次PM_2.5占比明显高于其他城市.随着污染程度加剧,一次PM_2.5和二次PM_2.5质量浓度均有不同程度的增加,二次PM_2.5占比呈显著增大趋势.与直接测量结果相比,CO示踪法获得的结果偏低,与冬季CO浓度较高,一次PM_2.5浓度高估有关,选取合适的一次气溶胶基准值是改进该方法,获取合理估算值的关键.     

Limb regeneration and subsequent asymmetry in a male secondary sexual character influences sexual selection in wolf spiders

Males of the brush-legged wolf spider Schizocosa ocreata (Hentz) have conspicuously decorated forelegs used in courtship and agonistic displays. Approximately one in five juvenile males has a missing or regenerating foreleg, and regeneration of a leg lost during development usually results in the absence of a decorative tuft on that leg. The subsequent asymmetry in this male secondary character significantly decreases success in both courtship of females and male-male agonistic interactions. Experimental removal of tufts from one leg of previously successful symmetric males produces similar results. As a test for concomitant behavioral effects, female spiders were shown video images of a courting male with symmetric tufts and the same video image altered to have asymmetric tufts. Female receptivity to the asymmetric video image was lower. In contrast to fluctuating asymmetry resulting from developmental instability, leg tuft asymmetry in S. ocreata most likely arises from a single event during ontogeny – possibly leg loss from an aggressive or predator encounter  – and may serve as a quality indicator in female mate choice. Received: 27 July 1995/ Accepted after revision: 19 November 1995     

Ordination of Plant Communities in Forest Biogeocenoses under Conditions of Air Pollution in the Northern Kola Peninsula

The species diversity and structure of the tree, herb–dwarf shrub, and moss–lichen layers in the biogeocenoses (BGCs) of pine forests of the Kola Peninsula were analyzed in the zone affected by the Pechenganikel Combined Works. Relationships of the diversity of phytocenoses with the amount of atmospheric fallout and the concentrations of accessible compounds of polluting elements (nickel and copper) and nutrients (potassium, magnesium, and nitrogen) in forest litters were revealed.     

Impact of mining activities on soils in a semi-arid environment: Sierra Almagrera district, SE Spain

Field and laboratory-column studies were undertaken in order to investigate soil contamination derived from past mining activity in the Sierra Almagrera (SA) district in southeast Spain. The tailings, soil and sediment samples that were collected showed high concentrations of Ag, As, Ba, Cu, Pb, Sb and Zn when analyzed. The mean concentrations of these elements in the tailings were 29.8, 285.4, 54000, 57.7, 2687.5, 179.0 and 2269.0 ppm, respectively. In the soil samples these decreased to 14.3, 96.9, 24700, 37.5, 1859.1, 168.5 and 815.7 ppm, respectively. Geochemical analyses demonstrated high levels of As, Pb and Zn which were above the intervention values set forth in the Andalusian Regulations for Contaminated Soils for As (>50 ppm), Pb (>500 ppm) and Zn (>2000 ppm). Column experiments and mineralogical studies suggest that the dissolution of sulfates and other secondary phases, accumulated in soils and waste-sites during the dry season, acts to control the mobility of metals. The elution curves obtained from column experiments showed a mobilization of Ba, Cu, Pb and Zn, while a low mobility was seen for Ag, As and Sb.     

Effects of the Surrounding Matrix on Tree Recruitment in Amazonian Forest Fragments

Abstract:  Little is known about how the surrounding modified matrix affects tree recruitment in fragmented forests. We contrasted effects of two different matrix types, Vismia - and Cecropia -dominated regrowth, on recruitment of pioneer tree species in forest fragments in central Amazonia. Our analyses were based on 22, 1-ha plots in seven experimental forest fragments ranging in size from 1 to 100 ha. By 13 to 17 years after fragmentation, the population density of pioneer trees was significantly higher in plots surrounded by Vismia regrowth than in plots surrounded by Cecropia regrowth, and the species composition and dominance of pioneers differed markedly between the two matrix types. Cecropia sciadophylla was the most abundant pioneer in fragments surrounded by Cecropia regrowth (constituting nearly 50% of all pioneer trees), whereas densities of species in Vismia -surrounded fragments were distributed more evenly. Thus the surrounding matrix had a strong influence on patterns of tree recruitment in Amazonian forest fragments.     

"一退两还"中的博弈分析与制度创新

“一退两还”即“退耕还林还草”，是我国政府在世纪之交所作出的一项旨在推进国民经济可持续发展的战略举措。本文运用博弈论的方法，通过对“一退两还”中的各个相关主体利益的思考和行为的辨析，结合分析结论，提出了对提高“一退两还”实施效果具有重要意义的制度创新思路。     

Institutions, Forest Management, and Sustainable Human Development – Experiences from India

New institutional economists have argued that there are many categories of institutions, including market and non-market institutions, which may prove economically efficient, specifically for public goods and common pool goods. The Government of India introduced a non-market community-based institution, known as Joint Forest Management (JFM), for forest management and protection in 1990. JFM is a sharing mechanism for forest planning and management based on sharing of rights and duties, control and decision-making authority over forestlands, between forest departments and local user groups. By 2001, 42 000 Village Forest Committees established under JFM were managing over 11.5 million ha forestland. These institutions have proved very useful, and have contributed to forest management as well as four aspects of sustainable human development (SHD) – ecological output, income generation, village infrastructure development, and community empowerment. In the long-term, community-based institutions will prove to be a foundation of SHD and participatory democracy.     

Seeing the wood for the trees: the role of woody resources for the construction of gender specific household cultural artefacts in non-traditional communities in the Eastern Cape, South Africa

There is a growing wealth of data capturing the direct-use values of the environment and recognition of forests and wild resources as representing “the poor manȁ9s overcoat”. This focus has however resulted in an emphasis on the utilitarian values of wild resources for rural livelihoods and has for the most part overlooked their cultural values. In tangent to these developments within the field of anthropology there has been increased attention directed towards the relationship between biodiversity and human diversity over the past decade. This has resulted in the recognition of what the Declaration of Belem calls an ȁ8inextricable linkȁ9 between biological and cultural diversity. The term bio-cultural diversity has been introduced as a concept denoting this link. Consequently there is a need for more elaborate assessments of the various ways in which different groups of people find value in biodiversity. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the cultural significance of wild harvested plant resources for the maintenance of two gender specific cultural artefacts for amaXhosa people in South Africa, to assess the persistence of these practices in rapidly modernizing communities. We demonstrate the endurance of these ancient cultural artefacts in present-day peri-urban communities and suggest that they point to the need for improved understanding of the significance of bio-cultural diversity. The findings of the study should not be interpreted as illustrating stagnation in the traditional past, but rather as pointing at the need for improved understanding of the significance of bio-cultural diversity in a dynamic sense.