南方土壤酸沉降敏感性研究Ⅲ.Si释放与缓冲作用

研究了模拟酸雨淋溶过程中南方主要土壤硅释放量与缓冲机理。结果表明,土壤中存在两个缓冲体系,pH值高于3.0时,土壤以初级缓冲体系为主;pH值低于3.0,尤其是离子淋溶量高于或接近CEC值后,次级缓冲体系成为主要的质子缓冲源。淋溶液pH值的降低可加速矿物风化和Si的释放,从而促进土壤中Si的淋溶,但Si的淋溶同时受到吸附、沉淀与转化过程及土壤初始条件的影响。     

城郊排水沟渠溶质传输的暂态存储影响及参数灵敏性

选择Na Cl为示踪剂,于2013年9~10月在合肥城郊的关镇河支渠开展5次瞬时投加示踪实验.从暂态存储、侧向补给和对流-扩散等作用机制层面,设置4种模拟情景,解析暂态存储作用对于排水沟渠溶质传输规律的影响,并对OTIS模型参数进行灵敏性分析.结果表明,暂态存储对于主流区Cl-模拟浓度穿透曲线(BTCs)峰值大小影响很大,相对偏差高达24.23%~117.26%,显著高于对峰值出现时间的影响,且暂态存储影响显著超过了侧向补给作用;由相关性分析,主流区Cl-模拟浓度BTCs峰值大小和出现时间的相对偏差与As/A具有极显著相关性;4个主要参数的灵敏度排序为AAsαD.     

祁连山七一冰川物质平衡的时空变化特征

基于2011-2016年七一冰川的野外观测资料,结合气象站数据及1975-2015年的遥感影像,分析了冰川末端变化、物质平衡时空变化特征及其对气候变化的敏感性,结果表明:1975年以来,七一冰川末端持续退缩235 m,平均退缩速率为5.9 m/a,冰川面积减少0.13 km²(4.5%)。2011-2016年,七一冰川的平均物质平衡为-476 mm w.e.,平均ELA为4941 m a.s.l.,物质平衡梯度为2.9 mm/m。从季节变化看,受风吹雪和冰面升华影响,11月至次年3月冰川呈负平衡;4月和9月物质平衡受降水控制,随海拔变化呈现降水效应;强消融期(6-8月)物质平衡随海拔升高线性增加;消融期末由9月初延后至9月底。敏感性分析结果表明,物质平衡对气温变化的敏感性为-178.7 mm w.e.°C^-1a^-1,对降水变化的敏感性为+2.93 mm w.e. mm^-1a^-1。即61 mm的降水增加才能弥补暖季气温升高1°C引起的冰川净物质损失。     

Sensitivity and Uncertainty of Ground‐Water Discharge Estimates for Semiarid Shrublands1

Abstract: We proposed a step‐by‐step approach to quantify the sensitivity of ground‐water discharge by evapotranspiration (ET) to three categories of independent input variables. To illustrate the approach, we adopt a basic ground‐water discharge estimation model, in which the volume of ground water lost to ET was computed as the product of the ground‐water discharge rate and the associated area. The ground‐water discharge rate was assumed to equal the ET rate minus local precipitation. The objective of this study is to outline a step‐by‐step procedure to quantify the contributions from individual independent variable uncertainties to the uncertainty of total ground‐water discharge estimates; the independent variables include ET rates of individual ET units, areas associated with the ET units, and precipitation in each subbasin. The specific goal is to guide future characterization efforts by better targeting data collection for those variables most responsible for uncertainty in ground‐water discharge estimates. The influential independent variables to be included in the sensitivity analysis are first selected based on the physical characteristics and model structure. Both regression coefficients and standardized regression coefficients for the selected independent variables are calculated using the results from sampling‐based Monte Carlo simulations. Results illustrate that, while as many as 630 independent variables potentially contribute to the calculation of the total annual ground‐water discharge for the case study area, a selection of seven independent variables could be used to develop an accurate regression model, accounting for more than 96% of the total variance in ground‐water discharge. Results indicate that the variability of ET rate for moderately dense desert shrubland contributes to about 75% of the variance in the total ground‐water discharge estimates. These results point to a need to better quantify ET rates for moderately dense shrubland to reduce overall uncertainty in estimates of ground‐water discharge. While the approach proposed here uses a basic ground‐water discharge model taken from an earlier study, the procedure of quantifying uncertainty and sensitivity can be generalized to handle other types of environmental models involving large numbers of independent variables.     

A Simulation Study to Assess the Sensitivity of a Forest Health Monitoring Network to Outbreaks of Defoliating Insects

The sensitivity of the United States Forest Health Monitoring network to outbreaks of defoliating insects was examined by means of a simulation study. A model constructed specifically for the study was used to generate a wide variety of defoliation patterns in forested landscapes. Forest configuration was that of Minnesota, USA, as expressed by the GAP land cover classification. Combinations of model parameters were based on a Latin Hypercube sample. The relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak characteristics was then examined via multiple regression. Both theoretical and model results pointed to a strong, linear relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak size. Model results provided additional insight, suggesting a significant relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and other outbreak characteristics after outbreak size was taken into account.     

Sensitivity analysis of North American bird population estimates

The Partners in Flight North American Landbird Conservation Plan provided estimates of population sizes for 448 landbird species using a multiplicative model. Input parameters in this calculation included the area of state × Bird Conservation Region polygons, area-specific mean Breeding Bird Survey counts circa 1995, and adjustment factors for the distance over which species may presumably be correctly counted, the assumed pairing of singing males with non-singing females, and variability in the propensity of birds to sing over the course of the survey day. I assessed the sensitivity of this population calculation to changes in the input parameters. I assessed both local and global sensitivity of the model to changes in the parameters with Monte Carlo one-at-a-time simulations and the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST). Monte Carlo simulations were an estimate of local model sensitivity whereas FAST estimated global model sensitivity, accommodating the potential shared variance between model parameters. Monte Carlo simulations suggested population estimates were 39% more sensitive to changes in the detection distance adjustment than to the other parameters; the other parameters were nearly equal in their contribution to model sensitivity. Conversely, FAST analysis determined that each of the input variables aside from the pair adjustment provided roughly equal contributions to variability in population estimates. The most efficient means for improving continental population estimates for birds surveyed by the Breeding Bird Survey will be through increased scrutiny of the species-specific distance detection and time-of-day adjustments and improved understanding in the spatial and temporal variability in the mean Breeding Bird Survey count.     

提高环境水中纳克级超痕量汞测定灵敏度的研究

对ｎｇ／Ｌ级超痕量汞测定中的消解、测定各步骤对灵敏度的影响进行了研究。得出结论：采用高纯氩气作载、屏气,选择高负压值和高扩展倍率能明显提高灵敏度;选择合适的消解时间和缩短测定时间能使灵敏度略有提高;试剂和玻璃器皿所带给空白的痕量汞对提高灵敏度不利,应作除汞处理。     

基于景观生态学的生态功能区划研究——以重庆市长寿区为例

针对目前生态功能区划仅从区域生态要素、生态敏感性与生态服务功能空间分异规律等方面考虑,而很少涉及景观格局特征与景观稳定度等景观生态学的内容;文章在景观生态学理论基础上,提出一套基于景观生态学的区域生态功能区划理论;一方面有助于生态功能小区的划分;另一方面可以弥补原有生态保育措施只考虑生态敏感性和生态服务功能重要性的不足,从景观生态学角度提出具有针对性的生态保育措施。文章将所建立的理论与方法用于重庆市长寿区生态功能区划,区划结果为:将重庆市长寿区划分为3个生态亚区,9个生态功能区和21个生态功能小区,与未考虑景观稳定度的生态功能区划相比,考虑景观稳定度的生态功能区划多了四个生态功能小区,而这四个生态功能小区的划出,有助于进一步针对具体问题,从生态学和景观生态学的角度提出生态保育措施,对重庆市长寿区环境保护和生态建设具有重要的指导意义。     

管式反应器石灰雾液脱硫的数学模拟

建立的一维管式反应器雾液脱硫模型是对蒸发和吸收过程的耦合，以膜理论为基础的吸收机理同时考虑了含硫组分的离解、扩散、反应和固体颗粒的溶解。参数敏感性分析表明，对系统脱硫率影响最显的是出口干湿球温差，石灰颗粒粒度和入口ＳＯ２浓度、传质过程的分析表明，反应开始阶段液膜扩散和固体溶解阻力均存在，而气膜扩散在整个反应过程中都起着重要作用。     

基于物种敏感度分布的不同岩溶地下河中多环芳烃分布特征及生态风险评价

为明确重庆青木关和老龙洞地下河流域地下水中多环芳烃(PAHs)的含量及其污染水平,全年共采集两流域地下河水样品84个,利用气相色谱质谱联用系统(GC-MS)分别测定了地下水中的16种PAHs含量,分析了PAHs在两条地下河流域中的空间分布特征,并应用物种敏感度分布法(species sensitivity distri...