基于GIS的路面积雪灾害风险分析与区划研究

以宁夏高速公路为对象,利用1981—2018年25个常规气象站观测资料及交通相关数据资料,基于GIS、AHP等方法,从致灾因子的危险性、孕灾环境的敏感性、承灾体的易损性三方面进行高速公路路面积雪灾害风险分析与区划研究。结果表明:全区年平均积雪日数在6.5~86.7d,年平均降雪日数在10.3~64.5d,最大积雪深度在8~35cm,自南向北减少(浅),南部山区明显多(深)于北部地区。路面积雪灾害主要出现在冬季、初春和晚秋,大到暴雪级的路面积雪主要出现在秋冬转换的10~11月和冬春交替的3~4月。风险分析与区划研究结果表明,高风险区位于福银高速(G70)、青兰高速(G22)六盘山区东南麓区段;较高风险区位于福银高速(G70)固原市原州区段、青兰高速(G22)固原市隆德西段段、固西高速、彭青高速路段;同心以北的银川市、石嘴山市、吴忠市各路段风险总体较低。     

藏北高原土壤温度异常变化及其与雪灾关系初析

通过对ＧＡＭＥ－Ｔｉｂｅｔ野外工作期间所得藏北高原一个年周期的土壤温度资料的初步分析,发现藏北高原１９９７￣１９９８年冬半年土壤日温差的分布存在明显的异常现象;指出了这种异常现象的发生可能与藏北高原１９９７年冬天的特大雪灾有关。从浅层土壤日温差的异常变化,定性地说明了藏北高原１９９７￣１９９８年冬半年不同地点雪灾的严重程度,但由于受资料的限制,目前尚无法进行定量的评估。     

A COMPARISON OF GEOSTATISTICAL METHODOLOGIES USED TO ESTIMATE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT1

ABSTRACT: The need to monitor and forecast water resources accurately, particularly in the western United States, is becoming increasingly critical as the demand for water continues to escalate. Consequently, the National Weather Service (NWS) has developed a geostatistical model that is used to obtain areal estimates of snow water equivalent (the thtal water content in all phases of the snowpack), a major source of water in the West. The areal snow water equivalent estimates are used to update the hydrologic simulation models maintained by the NWS and designed to produce extended streamflow forecasts for river systems throughout the United States. An alternative geostatistical technique has been proposed to estimate snow water equivalent. In this research, we describe the two methodologies and compare the accuracy of the estimates produced by each technique. We illustrate their application and compare their estimation accuracy using snow data collected in the North Fork Clearwater River basin in Idaho.     

SNOWPACK CHANGES RESULTING FROM TIMBER HARVEST INTERCEPTION,REDISTRIBUTION, AND EVAPORATION1

ABSTRACT: Three processes were examined as causing snowpack changes in forest clearings. Two of the three contribute to increases and one counteracts by reducing snowpack. The two that increase snowpack are redistribution and decreased loss to interception. Snow evaporation from a clearing counteracts snowpack increases. Research has indicated that as vegetation density increases, so too does the loss to interception. As snow in the canopy reaches the limit that the canopy can hold (the threshold amount) evaporation increases. Aerodynamics of the forest canopy were studied as well. As timber is cut, wind patterns are disturbed, creating disruptions in the wind velocity gradient depositing snow in openings. This redistribution leads to an increased snow water equivalent and augments runoff. Snow evaporation was shown to increase proportionally with opening size. Evaporation offsets the water yield gains derived from forest cut. It was found that this offset is inclusive to the measurements of water yield changes in experimental forests. An optimal size of harvest block may be five tree heights in width as suggested by numerous studies.     

青藏高原冬季积雪与河北省夏季降水

应用青藏高原地面站积雪观测资料,ＮＯＡＡ卫星观测积雪面积和美国宇航局微波遥感积雪深度等资料进行综合对比分析,确定了青藏高原冬季积雪的年际变化,在此基础上讨论了青藏高原冬季积雪状况对河北降水的影响。结果表明,青藏高原冬季多雪时,当年河北夏季降水往往偏少;青藏高原冬季少雪时,河北夏季降水往往偏多。     

铁路沿线雪害形成机制及其工程防治措施

实地调查、观测和对铁路沿线气象要素的分析与推算结果表明,在所研究的丘陵地区,最大风速平均值为14.0m/s,30年一遇的最大风速与最大积雪深度分别为20.3m/s和160cm,冬季平均降水量达153.2mm,为风吹雪灾害的发生提供了物质与动力条件.在风吹雪多发区,路堤防风吹雪的适宜高度为200～1500cm,路堤若低于200cm,路面易形成风吹雪沉积;若路堤的边坡较陡,则路面不易形成风吹雪沉积;路堑边坡的角度越小,路堑越深,路堑走向与主导风向的夹角越小,风吹雪沉积越不易发生;风吹雪的防治应以防风吹雪走廊和下导风板为主,并辅以侧导板、挡雪墙等防雪工程.雪崩灾害主要发生在崇山峻岭区,阳坡雪崩危害相对较小;阴坡雪崩危害大.铁路选线时明线工程最好选在阳坡,永久性建筑物或设施要尽量避开沟槽雪崩的运动区和堆积区.在所有的隧道出入口,隧道要再向外延伸3m,上方修建导雪堤;在工程建设过程中,要求尽少破坏铁路两侧的植被.     

NETWORK DESIGN FOR WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING IN THE WEST1

ABSTRACT: The objective is to develop techniques to evaluate how changes in basic data networks can improve accuracy of water supply forecasts for mountainous areas. The approach used was to first quantify how additional data would improve our knowledge of winter precipitation, and second to estimate how this knowledge translates, quantitatively, into improvement in forecast accuracy. A software system called DATANET was developed to analyze each specific gage network alternative. This system sets up a fine mesh of grid points over the basin. The long-term winter mean precipitation at each grid point is estimated using a simple atmospheric model of the orographic precipitation process. The mean runoff at each grid point is computed from the long-term mean precipitation estimate. The basic runoff model is calibrated to produce the observed long-term runoff. The error analysis is accomplished by comparing the error in forecasts based on the best possible estimate of precipitation using all available data with the error in the forecasts based on the best possible estimate of winter precipitation using only the gaged data. Different data network configurations of gage sites can be compared in terms of forecast errors.     

ESTIMATED CONSUMPTIVE LOSS FROM MAN-MADE SNOW1

ABSTRACT: Consumptive loss of water attributable to man-made snowmaking was estimated using an energy balance model and a mass balance procedure. Data from nine field experiments at Colorado ski areas were collected and used in these models. The mean consumptive loss using the energy balance model for the nine experiments was 6.0 percent and 5.8 percent for the mass balance model A thermodynamic relationship and a regression equation were developed to provide a procedure to estimate consumptive loss as a linear function of atmospheric temperature.     

WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING IN REAL-TIME1

ABSTRACT: A strategy is developed for making seasonal water supply forecasts in real time. It links the traditional regression based forecasting techniques to real-time data acquired by systems such as the Soil Conservation Service SNOTEL and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet networks. The concept is based on interpolating between the forecast values obtained by using real-time data in the forecast equations that bracket the real time. Different interpolation procedures were examined and the procedure for calculating confidence intervals about the forecast estimates is developed. The entire conceptual procedure is demonstrated using data from the Reynolds Creek, Idaho, experimental watershed maintained by the USDA-ARS Northwest Watershed Research Center in Boise, Idaho.     

气候变化对内蒙古牧区白灾的影响——基于熵权法分析的锡林浩特市案例研究

锡林浩特位于内蒙古牧区锡林郭勒盟中东部，由于自然条件和社会因素，其畜牧业发展受白灾影响较大，所以在全球变暖的大环境下，研究气候变化对锡林浩特白灾的影响是很有必要的。基于对研究区近几十年内发生的白灾事件的分析，选取了6个评价白灾的气候指标：冬季降水量、积雪持续时间、低温容易掉膘期的负积温、5日温差≥12℃日数、积雪期大风日数和牧草生长季降水量，并利用国家气候中心提供的地面气象资料月报和锡林浩特牧试站数据，计算了这6个因子的长期变化趋势，表明冬季降水和低温容易掉膘期的负积温有增加的趋势，同时积雪期大风日数有减小趋势。文章还引入熵权法，计算了各因子对白灾影响的重要性程度，从而建立了综合评价方法，用以分析白灾随气候变化的变化规律。结果表明，在现有气候变化条件下，白灾有减轻的趋势。