中国沿海地区水资源及生态环境持续利用战略

由于地质和地理条件的特殊性,沿海地区生态环境极其脆弱和敏感。水资源短缺、水环境污染、海水入侵、地面沉降、生态环境退化和海平面上升,已构成我国沿海地区实现可持续发展战略面临的重大资源和环境问题。水资源和生态环境的持续利用,已成为我国沿海地区一项极其重要的战略任务。根据可持续发展理论,通过建立适应水资源持续利用的管理体制、政策和运行机制,采取生态环境可持续保护策略,可完全达到水资源和生态环境的持续利用,并有效实现中国沿海地区资源、环境与经济、社会的有机协调及经济、社会的持续、稳定、健康发展     

用氟化钾水溶液从制药废液中回收吡啶

研究了普通精馏与加盐分相技术在回收吡啶中的应用。测定了吡啶 水 氟化钾体系在25℃时的液液相平衡数据,采用Pitzer理论和UNIQUAC方程对相平衡数据进行了理论计算,结果表明计算值与实验值符合良好。采用氟化钾水溶液回收吡啶,当60%氟化钾浓溶液与50%吡啶/50%水的物料的质量比为2.0时,有机相中吡啶的纯度可达到92.60%(质量分数),水相中氟化钾稀溶液经蒸发回收后循环使用不影响分离性能。该工艺的开发成功为制药行业从制药废液中回收吡啶开辟了一条新途径。     

深井动压影响下山煤巷围岩变形机理与控制研究

以刘桥一矿Ⅱ66回风下山为工程背景,采用现场实测、实验室实验、数值模拟和工业性试验综合分析了下山煤巷非对称变形破坏机理,提出动压影响下深井软弱煤巷围岩多层次组合控制理论,并给出优化控制措施。研究表明:回风下山变形失稳严重并呈非对称性,围岩完整性较差,强度低。地应力实测显示,回风下山处于高原岩应力区,最大主应力为水平应力且具有明显方向性,与巷道轴线夹角为71°,断面顶底板剪切破坏风险较大;数值模拟显示,回风下山开拓延伸期间,受邻近轨道下山、辅助下山影响显著,4煤回采对其影响较小,6煤工作面回采是下山煤巷非对称失稳的主要诱因;提出以围岩深浅孔注浆为核心,以新型注浆锚索、锚杆为装备基础的高阻让压全断面组合控制理论,并给出具体优化方案。工业性试验显示,下山煤巷围岩变形得到有效控制。     

Animal agency in wildlife conservation and management

Wildlife conservation and management (WCM) practices have been historically drawn from a wide variety of academic fields, yet practitioners have been slow to engage with emerging conversations about animals as complex beings, whose individuality and sociality influence their relationships with humans. We propose an explicit acknowledgement of wild, nonhuman animals as active participants in WCM. We examined 190 studies of WCM interventions and outcomes to highlight 3 common assumptions that underpin many present approaches to WCM: animal behaviors are rigid and homogeneous; wildlife exhibit idealized wild behavior and prefer pristine habitats; and human–wildlife relationships are of marginal or secondary importance relative to nonhuman interactions. We found that these management interventions insufficiently considered animal learning, decision-making, individuality, sociality, and relationships with humans and led to unanticipated detrimental outcomes. To address these shortcomings, we synthesized theoretical advances in animal behavioral sciences, animal geographies, and animal legal theory that may help conservation professionals reconceptualize animals and their relationships with humans. Based on advances in these fields, we constructed the concept of animal agency, which we define as the ability of animals to actively influence conservation and management outcomes through their adaptive, context-specific, and complex behaviors that are predicated on their sentience, individuality, lived experiences, cognition, sociality, and cultures in ways that shape and reshape shared human–wildlife cultures, spaces, and histories. Conservation practices, such as compassionate conservation, convivial conservation, and ecological justice, incorporate facets of animal agency. Animal agency can be incorporated in conservation problem-solving by assessing the ways in which agency contributes to species’ survival and by encouraging more adaptive and collaborative decision-making among human and nonhuman stakeholders.     

Prevalence and perspectives of illegal trade in cacti and succulent plants in the collector community

Although illegal wildlife trade (IWT) represents a serious threat to biodiversity, research into the prevalence of illegal plant collection and trade remains scarce. Because cacti and succulents are heavily threatened by overcollection for often illegal, international ornamental trade, we surveyed 441 members of the cacti and succulent hobbyist collector community with a mixed quantitative and qualitative approach. We sought to understand collector perspectives on the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna (CITES) and on the threats IWT poses to cactus and succulent conservation. Most respondents (74% of 401 respondents) stated that illegal collection in cacti and succulents represents a “very serious problem” and that the problem of wild plant collection is increasing (72% of 319 respondents). Most forms of illegal collection and trade were seen as very unacceptable by respondents. Self-reported noncompliance with CITES rules was uncommon (11.2% of 418 respondents); it remains a persistent problem in parts of the cacti and succulent hobbyist community. People engaging in rule breaking, such as transporting plants without required CITES documents, generally did so knowingly. Although 60.6% of 381 respondents regarded CITES as a very important tool for conservation, sentiment toward CITES and its efficacy in helping species conservation was mixed. Collectors in our survey saw themselves as potentially playing important roles in cactus and succulent conservation, but this potential resource remains largely untapped. Our results suggest the need for enhanced consultation with stakeholders in CITES decision-making. For challenging subjects like IWT, developing evidence-based responses demands deep interdisciplinary engagement, including assessing the conservation impact of species listings on CITES appendices.     

Effects of Amazonian flying rivers on frog biodiversity and populations in the Atlantic rainforest

Given the speed at which humans are changing the climate, species with high degrees of endemism may not have time to avoid extinction through adaptation. We investigated through teleconnection analysis the origin of rainfall that determines the phylogenetic diversity of rainforest frogs and the effects of microclimate differences in shaping the morphological traits of isolated populations (which contribute to greater phylogenetic diversity and speciation). We also investigated through teleconnection analysis how deforestation in Amazonia can affect ecosystem services that are fundamental to maintaining the climate of the Atlantic rainforest biodiversity hotspot. Seasonal winds known as flying rivers carry water vapor from Amazonia to the Atlantic Forest, and the breaking of this ecosystem service could lead Atlantic Forest species to population decline and extinction in the short term. Our results suggest that the selection of morphological traits that shape Atlantic Forest frog diversity and their population dynamics are influenced by the Amazonian flying rivers. Our results also suggest that the increases of temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean due to global warming and in the Amazon forest due to deforestation are already breaking this cycle and threaten the biodiversity of the Atlantic Forest hotspot.     

基于指标规范值的地表水水质的模糊综合评价

传统的模糊综合评价法用于地表水水质评价,当指标数较多时需要设计很多隶属函数,设计和计算工作量皆很大,实际使用不便。在设定指标参照值和规范变换式基础上,将指标按各级标准规范值相近程度进行适当分类,只需分类设计隶属函数即可,大幅减少了计算工作量,使模糊综合评价法应用于地表水水质评价变得简化。     

基于信息融合的自然灾害等级评估方法研究

为对自然灾害灾情等级进行准确评估,在BP神经网络模型的基础上,结合DS证据理论建立基于信息融合的自然灾害灾情等级评估模型。该模型通过对输入的灾害评估指标数据进行分类,建立网络组,对网络组的输出,建立对于各类信任度的基本概率分配函数,最后利用DS证据理论融合,从而实现灾害的最终等级评估。在MATLAB环境下,以我国45个自然灾害的灾情历史资料数据为训练样本进行模型训练,并对2009年自然灾害灾情进行评估测试。结果表明,该模型能改善单一BP神经网络不稳定、误差大的缺点,得到较优的结果。     

基于突变理论的近海船舶航行安全评价

基于船舶航行安全评价在海事预防与管理中的重要性,从"人-机-环境-管理"指标体系出发,结合近海航行船舶的特点及影响安全的因素,建立一个定量指标为主、定性指标为辅的4级安全评价体系;结合突变级数法和模糊综合评价对近海船舶航行安全进行评价和预测;最后以秦皇岛海域的5艘航行船舶为例进行实例演示。结果表明:用突变级数法对近海船舶航行进行安全评价得出的结论与实际情况基本吻合。应用突变级数法对近海船舶的安全状况进行实时监控、评价和预测,有助于海上运输的安全管理。     

基于计划行为理论的自行车不安全行为模型研究

依托国家道路交通安全科技行动计划课题五"全民交通行为安全性提升综合技术及示范"专题,基于计划行为理论,从社会心理学的角度首次对自行车骑行者的不安全行为进行分析。在增加变量的基础上,通过调查问卷的方式,研究自行车骑行者对不安全行为的态度、主观规范、知觉行为控制、行为经验等心理因素,从而构建自行车不安全行为模型。从调查数据的结构方程模型分析和个人属性分析可知,在调查人群中存在对不安全行为没有正确认识、自觉守法能力较弱和普遍有不安全行为经验等问题,同时也确定了参与不安全行为的重点人群。最后,在揭示心理因素作用于行为的基础上提出家庭式安全教育、加强交警管理、提倡榜样学习、加强交通安全宣传等行为矫正手段。