Metapopulation Extinction Risk under Spatially Autocorrelated Disturbance

Abstract:  Recent extinction models generally show that spatial aggregation of habitat reduces overall extinction risk because sites emptied by local extinction are more rapidly recolonized. We extended such an investigation to include spatial structure in the disturbance regime. A spatially explicit metapopulation model was developed with a wide range of dispersal distances. The degree of aggregation of both habitat and disturbance pattern could be varied from a random distribution, through the intermediate case of a fractal distribution, all the way to complete aggregation (single block). Increasing spatial aggregation of disturbance generally increased extinction risk. The relative risk faced by populations in different landscapes varied greatly, depending on the disturbance regime. With random disturbance, the spatial aggregation of habitat reduced extinction risk, as in earlier studies. Where disturbance was spatially autocorrelated, however, this advantage was eliminated or reversed because populations in aggregated habitats are at risk of mass extinction from coarse-scale disturbance events. The effects of spatial patterns on extinction risk tended to be reduced by long-distance dispersal. Given the high levels of spatial correlation in natural and anthropogenic disturbance processes, population vulnerability may be greatly underestimated both by classical (nonspatial) models and by those that consider spatial structure in habitat alone.     

基于SPEI的西南农业区气象干旱时空演变特征

干旱已成为西南农业区的具有一定破坏力的自然灾害,研究干旱的时空变化对该区干旱的评估、预测具有重要的现实意义。根据西南农业区1962~2012年月气象资料,利用Penman-Monteith公式计算蒸散发和标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)值;采用线性回归、Mann-Kendall方法、小波分析和旋转经验正交函数(REOF)等方法分析了西南农业区干旱时空变化。研究结果表明:(1)西南农业区整体呈干旱化趋势;2000年以来年、四季变干趋势更加明显;秋季变干趋势显著;年均SPEI指数不存在显著突变点;年和四季干湿变化均存在2~8 a左右的振荡周期。(2)根据REOF分解的前6个空间模态,将西南农业区划分成6个干湿特征区域:云南高原东部区、汉中盆地区、东部山地区、云南高原西部区、四川盆地区、贵州高原区;其中云南高原东部区变干趋势显著,汉中盆地区和东部山地区有变湿润趋势,但并不明显;6个分区干湿变化普遍存在2~6 a左右的振荡周期。研究结果可为西南农业区防旱、抗旱提供科学参考。     

Analysis of Local Dandelion (Taraxacum officinales.l.) Cenopopulations from Radioactively Contaminated Zones

Local dandelion (Taraxacum officinales.l.) populations were studied in the areas of the Eastern Ural Radioactive Trace and the floodplain of the Techa River in its upper reaches. In impact plots, the density of soil and plant cover contamination with ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³⁷Cs exceeded the background level by factors of 13–440 and 2–500, respectively; the radiation load exceeded the background level by factors of 1.5 to 45. The seed progeny of plants from these plots was characterized by a high proportion of abnormal seedlings and an increased level of chromosome aberrations in meristem cells. In some years, variation in the seedling viability, growth rate, and developmental rate in these plots exceeded the reaction norm of plants from the background plot, demonstrating both stimulation and inhibition of growth processes. The response of seeds to acute irradiation at high challenging doses varied depending on the level of background radiation in the plots.     

不同主体功能区农户家庭耕地利用功能对土地流转行为的影响

城乡经济转型及农村人口快速城市化促使农户家庭耕地利用功能较传统利用方式发生转变,农户家庭耕地生存依赖度弱化促进土地流转市场发育。以湖北省重点开发区、农产品主产区和生态功能区的1 146户农户调查数据为实证,运用Biprobit模型分析不同主体功能区农户家庭耕地利用功能对土地流转行为的影响。研究表明:(1)调研区域41.10%的农户家庭参与土地流转,土地流入转出租金分别为2 751.12元/hm~2、4 391.33元/hm~2,土地流转发生率较高但租金水平整体偏低,且在区域间存在显著差异。重点开发区土地流转市场发育较好,流转参与率及租金水平较高;农产品主产区流转参与率较高,但租金水平较低;生态功能区土地流转参与率及租金水平较低,流转市场发育迟缓。(2)区域间功能定位、经济发展水平的差异导致农户家庭耕地利用功能空间差异明显。其中,生态功能区农户耕地资源利用的食物生产功能弱化明显,而重点开发区和农产品主产区则明显弱化耕地资源的养老就业功能。(3)整体而言,农户家庭耕地利用功能对土地流转行为影响显著。其中,家庭耕地利用在经济贡献、养老就业及食物生产等方面承担的功能越强,其家庭做出土地转出决策的可能性愈小;而选择土地流入的可能性也越大,而家庭耕地利用所表征的选择馈赠功能越强,其家庭越倾向于留存土地,且区域差异明显。重点开发区的相关系数及显著程度较高,作用方向与整体基本一致;生态功能区的相关系数及显著程度最低,且作用方向偏离整体幅度较大。表明经济发展程度越快的地区,土地流转发育受耕地利用功能的影响越明显。     

Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene and xylenes in ambient air and Pinus sylvestris L. needles: a comparative study between Belgium, Hungary and Latvia

Concentrations of benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene and xylenes (BTEX) in ambient air and in 1 yr old Pinus sylvestris pine needles were monitored along a busy road, petrol station and rural area of Belgium, Hungary and Latvia in a 1 yr period. To test P. sylvestris as a possible biomonitor for the BTEX concentrations, samples were taken in the four seasons. As the distribution of data was not normal, the level of pollution on different sites and seasons was compared and evaluated by non-parametric tests. The measured air concentrations did not differ significantly from one season to another throughout the year. There were, however, differences between sampling places. The C₂-alkylbenzene and toluene concentrations in the needles were similar in the autumn/winter and spring/summer periods but a significant decrease in their concentration was observed in every place between winter and spring. This effect was less obvious for toluene.     

Comparative analysis of the population structure of social vole (Microtus socialis Pall., 1773, cricetidae, rodentia) in different areas of its range

A comparative analysis of the spatial-ethological structure of social vole (Microtus socialis Pall.) colonies was made on the basis of studies performed in Dagestan (1987–1991) and the southern Kalmyk Republic (1993–1998). Notwithstanding differences in environmental conditions and the extent and forms of anthropogenic impact, the population structure of the species proved to be similar and stable. Irrespective of population density, its core consists of family groups. Specific features of social behavior (aggressiveness toward unfamiliar animals) provide for the protection of home ranges and help to maintain a stable population structure.     

Spatial distribution of coarse woody debris in pine forests of the Marii El Transvolga region

The spatial distribution of coarse woody debris in pine forests has been studied in the Transvolga region of the Marii El Republic. For this purpose, 30 test plots have been established in pine (Pinus sylvestris) stands of the study region. The results are indicative of a tendency toward the spatial grouping (clustering) of woody debris by fractions, decomposition classes, and stocks along with increase in stand age.     

On the effect of climate on the morphological structure of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Alnus hirsuta</Emphasis> (Betulaceae)

An analysis of correlations between metric leaf characters and climatic parameters of habitats in the Siberian alder (Alnus hirsuta) has shown that phenotypic variation in this species depends on the gradient of climatic factors and that the morphological structure of the species is largely determined by variation in climatic conditions within the species range.     

The Contribution of Habitat Loss to Changes in Body Size, Allometry, and Bilateral Asymmetry in Two Eleutherodactylus Frogs from Puerto Rico

Abstract:  Amphibian populations have been declining worldwide and the exact mechanisms underlying these changes are not well understood. We examined environmentally induced phenotypic changes that may reflect ongoing stresses on individuals and therefore their ability to persist in increasingly changing landscapes. Specifically, we evaluated the contribution of habitat loss on the size, allometry, and levels of fluctuating asymmetry of Eleutherodactylus antillensis and E. coqui , 2 common species that are endemic to Puerto Rico. We x-rayed frogs collected at 9 sites that differed in the amount of forest cover and measured their snout-vent, radio-ulna, femur, and tibio-fibula lengths. E. antillensis and E. coqui were smaller in the highly disturbed (≤20% forest cover) than in the intermediately (20–70% forest cover) and little-disturbed (≥70% forest cover) landscapes. In E. antillensis but not in E. coqui , the slope and intercept of the curves relating snout-vent length with the length of the 3 bones differed with degree of forest cover, suggesting an effect of habitat loss on body shape. In E. antillensis and E. coqui , differences between right and left sides corresponded to true fluctuating asymmetry; however, only the radio-ulna length of E. coqui showed a trend toward an increase in fluctuating asymmetry with habitat loss. Because body size scales with a variety of physiological, life history, and ecological traits, conservation programs aimed at monitoring morphological changes in amphibians may help in understanding the mechanisms that contribute to their persistence in changing environments.     

The Importance of Being Spatial (and Reserved): Assessing Northern Spotted Owl Habitat Relationships with Hierarchical Bayesian Models

Abstract:  Regional conservation planning increasingly draws on habitat suitability models to support decisions regarding land allocation and management. Nevertheless, statistical techniques commonly used for developing such models may give misleading results because they fail to account for 3 factors common in data sets of species distribution: spatial autocorrelation, the large number of sites where the species is absent (zero inflation), and uneven survey effort. We used spatial autoregressive models fit with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to assess the relationship between older coniferous forest and the abundance of Northern Spotted Owl nest and activity sites throughout the species' range. The spatial random-effect term incorporated in the autoregressive models successfully accounted for zero inflation and reduced the effect of survey bias on estimates of species–habitat associations. Our results support the hypothesis that the relationship between owl distribution and older forest varies with latitude. A quadratic relationship between owl abundance and older forest was evident in the southern portion of the range, and a pseudothreshold relationship was evident in the northern portion of the range. Our results suggest that proposed changes to the network of owl habitat reserves would reduce the proportion of the population protected by up to one-third, and that proposed guidelines for forest management within reserves underestimate the proportion of older forest associated with maximum owl abundance and inappropriately generalize threshold relationships among subregions. Bayesian spatial models can greatly enhance the utility of habitat analysis for conservation planning because they add the statistical flexibility necessary for analyzing regional survey data while retaining the interpretability of simpler models.