应用构型一致的显式方法预测结构冲击动响应

目的 发展构型一致的显式方法,以提高拉格朗日有限元对冲击、碰撞及侵彻问题计算的精度和健壮性。方法 为更准确地描述和计算结构大变形,基于任意参考构型理论,建立构型一致的动量方程拉格朗日有限元格式。为避免网格间侵入现象,通过结合前增量位移的时间积分方法和共轭梯度算法,使得显式增量步更新后,仍满足接触非侵入条件。结果 通过对大变形碰撞及侵彻问题的模拟,并与LS-DYNA软件结果对比,验证了计算方法的可靠性。结论 基于构型一致的显式算法可有效抑制大变形碰撞过程的单元畸变,提高计算程序的健壮性和预测准确度,使该算法在模拟大变形碰撞问题方面具有优势。     

The effects of disturbance based management on the dynamics of Mediterranean vegetation: A hierarchical and spatially explicit modeling approach

The eastern Mediterranean region has been subjected to intensive human disturbance in the past 10,000 years, mainly in the forms of agro-pastoral activities such as grazing, shrub clearing, and prescribed burning. This disturbance history resulted in the formation of highly heterogeneous landscapes, characterized by high biodiversity. Recent changes in human activities have resulted in a decrease of landscape heterogeneity, leading to decreasing biodiversity and increasing fire risk. To conserve heterogeneity, land managers apply disturbance based management practices, using the same activities that created and maintained landscape heterogeneity in the past. However, the long-term and large-scale outcomes of these disturbances are often unknown, due to the complex response of Mediterranean vegetation to disturbance. Here we report on a spatially explicit, hybrid, and spatially hierarchical ecological model developed by us. The model attempts to predict the outcome of various disturbance based management activities on the long-term spatio-temporal dynamics of five common Mediterranean vegetation types. The model uses a spatially explicit state and transition formulation, with continuous transition functions. Model simulations were conducted on a Mediterranean landscape in Northern Israel, incorporating various disturbance practices that are common in the region. Simulation results highlight the potential of disturbance based management as a tool for conserving landscape heterogeneity, as well as the complex interactions between disturbances and the spatial structure of the landscape in Mediterranean regions.     

Projecting population trends of endangered amphibian species in the face of uncertainty: A pattern-oriented approach

Amphibian populations have been declining worldwide for the last three decades. Determining the risk of extinction is one of the major goals of amphibian conservation, yet few quantitative models have been developed for amphibian populations. Like most rare or threatened populations, there is a paucity of life history data available for most amphibian populations. Data on the critical juvenile life stage are particularly lacking. Pattern oriented modeling (POM) has been used successfully to estimate life history parameters indirectly when critical data lacking, but has not been applied to amphibian populations. We describe a spatially explicit, individual-based, stochastic simulation model developed to project population dynamics of pond-breeding amphibian populations. We parameterized the model with life history and habitat data collected for the endangered Houston toad (Bufohoustonensis), a species for which there is a high degree of uncertainty for juvenile and adult male survival. During model evaluation, we focused on explicitly reducing this uncertainty, evaluating 16 different versions of the model that represented the range of parametric uncertainty for juvenile and adult male survival. Following POM protocol, we compared simulation results to four population-level patterns observed in the field: population size, adult sex ratio, proportion of toads returning to their natal pond, and mean maximum distance moved. Based on these comparisons, we rejected 11 of the 16 model versions. Results of the remaining versions confirmed that population persistence depends heavily on juvenile survival, and further suggested that probability of juvenile survival is likely between 0.0075 and 0.015 (previous estimates ranged from 0.003 to 0.02), and that annual male survival is near 0.15 (previous estimates ranged up to 0.43).     

考虑惯性耦合的两相介质动力反应显式数值计算方法∗

基于包含惯性耦合（耦合质量密度系数）的 u?p 形式饱和两相介质弹性波动方程,开展了对饱和两相介质近场波动问题时域全显式数值计算方法的研究。通过对波动方程中的质量集中矩阵和流体压缩矩阵对角化处理,消除了方程中的动力耦联的影响。分别应用中心差分法和 Newmark 常平均加速度法求解固相位移和固相速度,基于向后差分法求解孔隙流体压力,建立了考虑惯性耦合的饱和两相介质的时域显式数值计算方法。将该方法的数值解与相应的解析解进行对比,二者符合良好,验证了该方法的正确性。将该方法应用于饱和两相介质自由场的地震反应问题,研究了惯性耦合对两相介质动力反应的影响。基于本文研究的两种情况表明,惯性耦合对饱和两相介质动力反应的影响程度有限。     

西苕溪流域径流对土地利用变化的空间响应分析

针对流域土地利用变化所引起的径流空间变异问题,论文以太湖上游西苕溪流域为例,基于SWAT模型（Soil and Water Assessment Tool）模拟的不同土地利用情景下月尺度径流过程,通过GWR模型（Geographically weighted regression）在空间上定量评估了土地利用/覆被变化对流域径流过程的影响。结果表明：径流变化在流域空间分布上存在一定非平稳性,其与子流域内面积变化较大的土地利用类型相关性显著,其中城镇用地影响最大,林草地和耕地影响次之。径流变化对城镇用地的空间响应关系表现为由上游到下游逐渐增强,而对林草地和耕地的响应关系表现为从流域上游到下游逐渐减弱。对比发现,多因子GWR模型相对于单因子GWR模型更适合综合分析径流对土地利用/覆被变化的空间响应关系。     

基于SC-IAT的矿工内隐安全态度研究

为预防矿工习惯性违章行为发生,预防人因事故,采用单类内隐联想测验(SC-IAT)测量矿工安全态度的内隐性。首先,通过Inquisit 4.0心理学软件编制SC-IAT安全态度测量程序,试验验证矿工安全态度内隐性是否存在;然后,设计矿工安全态度量表,测量矿工的外显安全态度;最后,运用SPSS 21.0分析内隐安全态度测量结果与外显安全态度测量结果的关系。结果表明:被试整体上存在正向、积极的内隐安全态度;年龄、受教育程度、工作岗位等人口统计学指标对矿工内隐安全态度无显著影响;内隐安全态度与外显安全态度之间不存在相关关系,它们属于不同的建构。