Promoting Large,Compact Mature Forest Patches in Harvest Scheduling Models

Spatially explicit harvest scheduling models that can promote the development of dynamic mature forest patches have been proposed in the past. This paper introduces a formulation that extends these models by allowing the total perimeter of the patches to be constrained or minimized. Test run results suggest that the proposed model can produce solutions with fewer, larger, and more compact patches. In addition, patches are more likely to be temporally connected with this formulation. Methods for identifying the tradeoffs between the net present value of the forest and the size and perimeter of the evolving patches are demonstrated for a hypothetical forest.     

边界条件和偏移距的变化对分形插值精度的影响

地震数据空间道插值是地震资料预处理的重要内容之一。本文以分形理论为基础,借助压缩映射原理和不动点理论及实变函数理论,给出了分形插值函数的显式表达式及垂直比例因子的局部显式表达式。正演模拟中采用了吸收边界条件,边界条件的应用使得靠近边界的地震道分形插值重建的误差要高于远离边界的地震道,即随着检波器逐渐靠近边界,分形插值重建的误差逐渐增大。偏移距的变化也会对分形插值重建的精度产生影响,随着偏移距的增大,分形插值重建的误差有增大的趋势,但不明显。总体上来说,分形插值重建的地震道是原始地震道的良好近似,相位和振幅都得到了很好的恢复。     

Risks of global warming on montane and subalpine forests in Switzerland – a modeling study

In this study, we assess the risks of global warming on distributions of individual tree species in Switzerland. Applying a spatially explicit model, tree occurrence is predicted as a function of high resolution and physiologically relevant biophysical variables. The study shows that warming only slightly alters the overall abundance of tree species. However, the preferred temperature regimes are unevenly distributed along an elevational gradient, and the sensitivity to temperature varies considerably between the species. As a result, major reorganizations of forests in montane and subalpine belts are expected, i.e., a segregation of the core distributions of Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies is observed. Tree distribution potentials near timberlines, however, remain roughly the same. Electronic Publication     

考虑水-饱和土场地-结构耦合时的沉管隧道地震反应分析

用理想流体介质模拟水层、流体饱和多孔介质模拟饱和土地层,在理想流体介质与流体饱和多孔介质相连接边界的连续条件基础上,结合已有的对理想流体介质、流体饱和多孔介质进行动力反应分析的显式有限元方法,开考虑地层与结构的动力相互作用,建立了进行水与场地、结构耦合动力分析的方法。利用该方法对沉管隧道的地震响应进行了研究,重点分析了水深、地质条件等因素对沉管隧道地震反应的影响,并从中得出了一些可供相关人员进行沉管隧道抗震分析时参考的结论。     

Dependence of the Endangered Black‐Capped Vireo on Sustained Cowbird Management

Conservation‐reliant species depend on active management, even after surpassing recovery goals, for protection from persistent threats. Required management may include control of another species, habitat maintenance, or artificial recruitment. Sometimes, it can be difficult to determine whether sustained management is required. We used nonspatial stochastic population projection matrix simulation and a spatially explicit population model to estimate the effects of parasitism by a brood parasite, the Brown‐headed Cowbird (Moluthrus ater), on a population of endangered Black‐capped Vireos (Vireo atricapilla). We simulated parasitism as a percentage of breeding vireo pairs experiencing decreased fecundity due to cowbirds. We estimated maximum sustainable parasitism (i.e., highest percentage of parasitized vireo breeding pairs for which population growth is ≥1) with the nonspatial model under multiple scenarios designed to assess sensitivity to assumptions about population growth rate, demographic effects of parasitism, and spatial distribution of parasitism. We then used the spatially explicit model to estimate cumulative probabilities of the population falling below the population recovery target of 1000 breeding pairs for a range of parasitism rates under multiple scenarios. We constructed our models from data on vireos collected on the Fort Hood Military Reservation, Texas (U.S.A.). Estimates of maximum sustainable parasitism rates ranged from 9–12% in scenarios with a low (6%) vireo population growth rate to 49–60% in scenarios with a high (24%) growth rate. Sustained parasitism above 45–85%, depending on the scenario, would likely result in the Fort Hood Vireo population dropping below its recovery goal within the next 25 years. These estimates suggest that vireos, although tolerant of low parasitism rates, are a conservation‐reliant species dependent on cowbird management. Dependencia de Vireo atricapilla, Especie en Peligro, hacia el Manejo Sostenido de Moluthurs ater     

全球二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布条件下碳排放与升温关系的统计分析

为定量评估全球二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布条件下碳排放与升温的关系,采用空间自相关分析与空间联立方程组模型,基于1度、2度与3度空间分辨率的全球二氧化碳浓度,碳排放与近地面气温等格点数据,揭示了2003—2015年全球二氧化碳浓度的空间分布聚集特征并估计了碳排放对升温的影响系数。结果发现：二氧化碳浓度在空间上表现为北半球高浓度值聚集与南半球低浓度值聚集的分布型。利用二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布的参数条件对碳排放与升温影响的估计结果表明,代入二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布这一参数会小幅拉低碳排放对升温影响的估计结果。研究表明,全球二氧化碳浓度非均匀分布是当前评估碳排放升温影响亟待引入的参数;同时由于估计结果的空间尺度效应的存在,相关参数的空间范围与分辨率的选择也需要关注。     

LYl2半球形件拉深成形过程的动力显式有限元模拟

基于连续介质力学及有限变形理论 ,建立了用于三维板料成形过程模拟的有限元模型 ,开发了动力显式算法的板料成形过程模拟的有限元分析程序DESSFORMM3D。最后 ,用笔者新开发的动力显式弹粘塑性有限元程序对不同压边情况下半球形件的拉深过程进行分析 ,并把数值结果与实验进行对比 ,验证了软件的计算结果。     

有限元仿真技术在板材成形中的应用

有限元仿真技术具有很强的经济性和柔性，已广泛应用于汽车钢铁工业领域。文中论述了板材成形有限元仿真分析的关键技术及其研究进展，并采用动力显式有限元软件LS-DYNA对轻型车侧围后外板零件冲压成形过程进行了仿真计算，分析了变形过程的金属流动规律。     

Spatial Calibration and Temporal Validation of Flow for Regional Scale Hydrologic Modeling1

Abstract: Physically based regional scale hydrologic modeling is gaining importance for planning and management of water resources. Calibration and validation of such regional scale model is necessary before applying it for scenario assessment. However, in most regional scale hydrologic modeling, flow validation is performed at the river basin outlet without accounting for spatial variations in hydrological parameters within the subunits. In this study, we calibrated the model to capture the spatial variations in runoff at subwatershed level to assure local water balance, and validated the streamflow at key gaging stations along the river to assure temporal variability. Ohio and Arkansas‐White‐Red River Basins of the United States were modeled using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the period from 1961 to 1990. R² values of average annual runoff at subwatersheds were 0.78 and 0.99 for the Ohio and Arkansas Basins. Observed and simulated annual and monthly streamflow from 1961 to 1990 is used for temporal validation at the gages. R² values estimated were greater than 0.6. In summary, spatially distributed calibration at subwatersheds and temporal validation at the stream gages accounted for the spatial and temporal hydrological patterns reasonably well in the two river basins. This study highlights the importance of spatially distributed calibration and validation in large river basins.     

Combining the Species-Area-Habitat Relationship and Environmental Cluster Analysis to Set Conservation Priorities: a Study in the Zhoushan Archipelago, China

Abstract: Identification of priority areas is a fundamental goal in conservation biology. Because of a lack of detailed information about species distributions, conservation targets in the Zhoushan Archipelago (China) were established on the basis of a species–area–habitat relationship (choros model) combined with an environmental cluster analysis (ECA). An environmental‐distinctness index was introduced to rank areas in the dendrogram obtained with the ECA. To reduce the effects of spatial autocorrelation, the ECA was performed considering spatial constraints. To test the validity of the proposed index, a principal component analysis–based environmental diversity approach was also performed. The priority set of islands obtained from the spatially constrained cluster analysis coupled with the environmental‐distinctness index had high congruence with that from the traditional environmental‐diversity approach. Nevertheless, the environmental‐distinctness index offered the advantage of giving hotspot rankings that could be readily integrated with those obtained from the choros model. Although the Wilcoxon matched‐pairs test showed no significant difference among the rankings from constrained and unconstrained clustering process, as indicated by cophenetic correlation, spatially constrained cluster analysis performed better than the unconstrained cluster analysis, which suggests the importance of incorporating spatial autocorrelation into ECA. Overall, the integration of the choros model and the ECA showed that the islands Liuheng, Mayi, Zhoushan, Fodu, and Huaniao may be good candidates on which to focus future efforts to conserve regional biodiversity. The 4 types of priority areas, generated from the combination of the 2 approaches, were explained in descending order on the basis of their conservation importance: hotspots with distinct environmental conditions, hotspots with general environmental conditions, areas that are not hotspots with distinct environmental conditions, and areas that are not hotspots with general environmental conditions.