A Comparison of Statistical Approaches for Predicting Stream Temperatures Across Heterogeneous Landscapes1

Abstract: Estimating stream temperatures across broad spatial extents is important for regional conservation of running waters. Although statistical models can be useful in this endeavor, little information exists to aid in the selection of a particular statistical approach. Our objective was to compare the accuracy of ordinary least‐squares multiple linear regression, generalized additive modeling, ordinary kriging, and linear mixed modeling (LMM) using July mean stream temperatures in Michigan and Wisconsin. Although LMM using low‐rank thin‐plate smoothing splines to measure the spatial autocorrelation in stream temperatures was the most accurate modeling approach; overall, there were only slight differences in prediction accuracy among the evaluated approaches. This suggests that managers and researchers can select a stream temperature modeling approach that meets their level of expertise without sacrificing substantial amounts of prediction accuracy. The most accurate models for Michigan and Wisconsin had root mean square errors of 2.0‐2.3°C, suggesting that only relatively coarse predictions can be produced from landscape‐based statistical models at regional scales. Explaining substantially more variability in stream temperatures likely will require the collection of finer‐scale hydrologic and physiographic data, which may be cost prohibitive for monitoring and assessing stream temperatures at regional scales.     

城市景观生态网络规划的空间模式应用探讨

城市景观生态网络空间模式研究是生态城市和景观规划设计现今研究的重要领域之一,目的在于依据景观生态网络模式的应用建立起生态城市规划建设的基本框架和技术途径。在探讨城市景观生态系统特征和城市景观生态网络结构的基础上,总结景观生态网络空间模式并重点分析了水景树的空间生态模式、森林 道路 住宅复合网络模式、平原城市农田 灌木丛 河流交叉网络模式、岛屿城市的绿地 道路生态网络模式4种城市景观生态网络典型模式的图示特征及其生态意义。依此为理论指导基础,以都江堰为例,在继承都江堰大地景观格局并结合都江堰市灾后重建需求的前提下,研究都江堰市城市景观生态格局和生态过程,探讨在不同尺度和不同维度上运用4种网络图示进行都江堰城市景观生态网络优化调整的空间模式和对策。(1)依据“水景树图式”优化调整纵向维度景观生态格局;(2)依据“森林 道路 住宅”和“农田 灌木丛 河流”网络调整横向维度景观生态格局;(3)依据岛屿城市的“绿地 道路”景观生态网络调整城市组团景观生态格局.     

事故预测数学模型的研究与实践

依据收集统计的、真实可靠的事故数据,运用数学方法及建立的多种事故预测模型,在工作中理论与实际相结合,提出并建立了事故预测数学模型,给出具体方法与步骤,以及应用中应遵循的原则和规律,从而做到对将来发生的事故未卜先知,用以指导安全生产活动,预防事故发生。同时,根据我国近18年来各类事故死亡人员的数据建立事故预测数学模型,并运用确立的最佳事故预测数学模型而预测出的事故数据,探讨我国伤亡事故发生的趋势。     

The Use of Atmospheric Dispersion Models in Risk Assessment Decision Support Systems for Pesticides

In the evaluation of potentially adverse effects oforganic chemicals such as pesticides on theenvironment the atmosphere may play an important role.After its release to the atmosphere the chemical willbe transported/dispersed in the atmosphere and finallyit will be removed either by atmospheric-chemicaldestruction or by deposition to the underlying soil orsurface water. In a risk assessment decision supportsystem both ambient concentrations and depositionfluxes must be known to evaluate the risk of directexposure (inhalation) or the risk of soil and watercontamination caused by deposition. This paperdiscusses the use of atmospheric dispersion models insuch risk assessment decision support systems.     

Global Grids from Recursive Diamond Subdivisions of the Surface of an Octahedron or Icosahedron

In recent years a number of methods have been developed for subdividing the surface of the earth to meet the needs of applications in dynamic modeling, survey sampling, and information storage and display. One set of methods uses the surfaces of Platonic solids, or regular polyhedra, as approximations to the surface of the earth. Diamond partitions are similar to recursive subdivisions of the triangular faces of either the octahedron or icosahedron. This method views the surface as either four (octahedron) or ten (icosahedron) tessellated diamonds, where each diamond is composed of two adjacent triangular faces of the figure. The method allows for a recursive partition on each diamond, creating nested sub-dimaonds, that is implementable as a quadtree, including the provision for a Peano or Morton type coding system for addressing the hierarchical pattern of diamonds and their neighborhoods, and for linearizing storage. Furthermore, diamond partitions, in an aperture-4 hierarchy, provide direct access through the addressing system to the aperture-4 hierarchy of hexagons developed on the figure. Diamond partitions provide a nested hierarchy of grid cells for applications that require nesting and diamond cells have radial symmetry for those that require this property. Finally, diamond partitions can be cross-referenced with hierarchical triangle partitions used in other methods.     

The use of leeches and logit log-linear contingency models to assess and monitor aquatic PCB contamination originating from mid-Canada radar line site 050

Abandoned military sites in northern North America are relics of the Cold War and sources of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). In the late 1990s, the Canadian federal and provincial governments began the cleanup of the mid-Canada radar line in Ontario, Canada. The first site to be remediated was Site 050 (Fort Albany First Nation) in 2001; however, the community remains concerned that contaminants may have moved prior to, during, and after remediation into the Albany River directly adjacent to Site 050. Thus, the Albany River was monitored (1999, 2001, 2002) during the remediation process to determine if the cleanup itself further contaminated the aquatic compartment, using leeches (Haemopis spp.) as bioindicators. Few organochlorines were found in leeches at levels higher than the detection limit, aside from PCBs. Leech data from the present study indicated that PCB levels were significantly higher near Site 050 than the control site upstream, indicating point source contamination from Site 050. The temporal trend in leech contaminant data indicated an increase in PCB contaminant load from 1999 (pre-remediation) to 2001 (immediately post-remediation), but this difference was not statistically significant due to high variances. Nevertheless, logit log-linear contingency modeling did reveal that immediately after cleanup (2001), contaminants (CBs 99, 118, 128, 156, 170, 183) in leeches were detected significantly more frequent than expected. When taken together, leech body burden and frequency of detection data suggest that the remediation process itself further contaminated the aquatic environment, if only temporarily. Lastly, the removal of the terrestrial source of PCBs during remediation did remove the source of aquatic contaminants in that body burden of contaminants in leeches were significantly lower a year after cleanup.     

Snow-cover environmental monitoring and assessment in Northeast China using passive microwave emission models

In this study, we present the application of the passive microwave emission models to snow-cover environment monitoring and assessment in Northeast China. The study employs the radiative transfer function and strong fluctuation theory to develop the models. We used the exponential form of a spherical symmetric correlation function to describe random permittivity fluctuations. From strong fluctuation, we then obtained the phase matrix and extinction coefficients of snow-packs for the spherical symmetric correlation function. We also used the vector radiative transfer formula for the layer of a random medium by solving Gaussian quadrature and eigen analysis. By comparing the brightness temperatures at 5, 10.7, 18, and 37 GHz, the modelling results agreed with experimental data of dry-snow physical parameters as measured in the fieldwork.     

Integrated landscape planning and remuneration of agri-environmental services. Results of a case study in the Fuhrberg region of Germany

Until now, existing remuneration of environmental services has not sufficiently supported the goals of spending money more effectively on the environment and of motivating farmers. Only a small share of the budgets for agriculture in the EU, as well as in US and other countries, is available for buying environmental goods and services beyond the level of good farming practice (GFP). This combined with the insufficient targeting of compensation payments to areas where special measures are needed leads to an unsatisfactorily low impact of agri-environment measures compared to other driving forces that stimulate the intensification of farming. The goal of this paper is to propose a management concept that enhances the ecological and cost efficiency of agri-environment measures. Components of the concept are a comprehensive environmental information base with prioritised goals and targets (available in Germany from landscape planning) and new remuneration models, which complement conventional compensation payments that are based upon predetermined measures and cost. Comprehensive landscape planning locates and prioritises areas which require environmental action. It contains the information that authorities need to prioritise funding for environmental services and direct measures to sites which need environmental services beyond the level of GFP.Also appropriate remuneration models, which can enhance the cost efficiency of public spending and the motivation of the farmers, can be applied on the base of landscape planning.Testing of the planning methodology and of one of the remuneration models (success-oriented remuneration) in a case study area (“Fuhrberger Feld” north of Hanover, Germany) demonstrated the usability of the concept and led to proposals for future development of the methodology and its application in combination with other approaches.     

Modeling Streams and Hydrogeomorphic Attributes in Oregon From Digital and Field Data1

Abstract: Managers, regulators, and researchers of aquatic ecosystems are increasingly pressed to consider large areas. However, accurate stream maps with geo‐referenced attributes are uncommon over relevant spatial extents. Field inventories provide high‐quality data, particularly for habitat characteristics at fine spatial resolutions (e.g., large wood), but are costly and so cover relatively small areas. Recent availability of regional digital data and Geographic Information Systems software has advanced capabilities to delineate stream networks and estimate coarse‐resolution hydrogeomorphic attributes (e.g., gradient). A spatially comprehensive coverage results, but types of modeled outputs may be limited and their accuracy is typically unknown. Capitalizing on strengths in both field and regional digital data, we modeled a synthetic stream network and a variety of hydrogeomorphic attributes for the Oregon Coastal Province. The synthetic network, encompassing 96,000 km of stream, was derived from digital elevation data. We used high‐resolution but spatially restricted data from field inventories and streamflow gauges to evaluate, calibrate, and interpret hydrogeomorphic attributes modeled from digital elevation and precipitation data. The attributes we chose to model (drainage area, mean annual precipitation, mean annual flow, probability of perennial flow, channel gradient, active‐channel width and depth, valley‐floor width, valley‐width index, and valley constraint) have demonstrated value for stream research and management. For most of these attributes, field‐measured, and modeled values were highly correlated, yielding confidence in the modeled outputs. The modeled stream network and attributes have been used for a variety of purposes, including mapping riparian areas, identifying headwater streams likely to transport debris flows, and characterizing the potential of streams to provide high‐quality habitat for salmonids. Our framework and models can be adapted and applied to areas where the necessary field and digital data exist or can be obtained.     

Numerical Investigation of the Effects of Boundary-Layer Evolution on the Predictions of Ozone and the Efficacy of Emission Control Options in the Northeastern United States

This paper examines the effects of two different planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parameterization schemes – Blackadar and Gayno–Seaman – on the predicted ozone (O₃) concentration fields using the MM5 (Version 3.3) meteorological model and the MODELS-3 photochemical model. The meteorological fields obtained from the two boundary-layer schemes have been used to drive the photochemical model to simulate O₃ concentrations in the northeastern United States for a three-day O₃ episodic period. In addition to large differences in the predicted O₃ levels at individual grid cells, the simulated daily maximum 1-h O₃ concentrations appear at different regions of the modeling domain in these simulations, due to the differences in the vertical exchange formulations in these two PBL schemes. Using process analysis, we compared the differences between the different simulations in terms of the relative importance of chemical and physical processes to O₃ formation and destruction over the diurnal cycle. Finally, examination of the photochemical model's response to reductions in emissions reveals that the choice of equally valid boundary-layer parameterizations can significantly influence the efficacy of emission control strategies.