江西省环境与经济耦合关系研究

根据江西省环境与经济的发展状况,综合运用熵值法和线性加权法对区域环境与经济发展水平作出评价,并利用协同论和容量耦合概念建立两种数学模型对江西省环境与经济耦合关系进行研究.结果表明:江西省经济实力在不断增强,环境质量先快速下降后略微上升,环境与经济的耦合关系在不断增强,15年内一直处于协调发展水平,且发展水平在不断提高.对比分析两种模型,发现两模型用于评价区域环境与经济耦合关系均具有一定的科学性和合理性,但基于协同论的协调度和协调发展度模型更能反映江西省环境与经济的耦合关系.     

单宁酸铁吸附去除水中无机氮的性能与机制研究

通过批量吸附实验,研究了一种新型吸附材料——单宁酸铁吸附去除水中无机氮(NH+4-N、NO-2-N和NO-3-N)的效果及其吸附机制.结果表明,单宁酸铁对NH+4-N和NO-2-N具有优先选择性,当单宁酸铁与NH+4-N和NO-2-N的质量比为200时,NH+4-N和NO-2-N去除率均大于95%.运用吸附动力学模型、Weber-Morris方程、Langmuir和Freundlich方程进行实验数据拟合的结果表明,NH+4-N和NO-2-N在单宁酸铁表面分别进行单分子层和多分子层的吸附,其吸附过程符合二级动力学模型,并且颗粒外部扩散和表面吸附起主要的作用.NH+4-N与分布于单宁酸铁外表面的氧负离子通过静电作用结合,NO-2-N则与单宁酸铁中的铁离子通过静电作用和配位作用结合.本研究为单宁酸铁作为吸附剂的发展与应用提供了科学依据.     

崇明北湖叶绿素a浓度与环境因子的GAM回归分析

以崇明北湖为例,采用广义加性模型(GAM)对该湖的叶绿素a浓度与相关环境因子进行分析.结果表明,叶绿素a浓度与总氮、总磷和水温之间存在较好的非线性关系(P<0.05),叶绿素a浓度与总磷之间的关系先为单调递增,当总磷浓度达到0.12mg/L时,变为单调递减;不同总氮浓度区间上,总氮对叶绿素a浓度的影响不同,氮浓度为0.6~1.8mg/L时,对叶绿素a浓度的影响不大;水温在24~26℃时,叶绿素a浓度最高.叶绿素a浓度与氮磷比之间也存在较好的非线性关系(P<0.1),氮限制时,叶绿素浓度与氮磷比呈反比;磷限制时,叶绿素a浓度随着氮磷比单调递减.     

分光光度分析加标回收率直接计算的数学模型研究

根据分光光度分析试液的吸光度与测定过程中的有关参数,推导出直接计算加标回收率的数学模型。经应用验证,该模型推导正确,应用结果可靠,而且计算简单、快速     

Improving effectiveness of systematic conservation planning with density data

Systematic conservation planning aims to design networks of protected areas that meet conservation goals across large landscapes. The optimal design of these conservation networks is most frequently based on the modeled habitat suitability or probability of occurrence of species, despite evidence that model predictions may not be highly correlated with species density. We hypothesized that conservation networks designed using species density distributions more efficiently conserve populations of all species considered than networks designed using probability of occurrence models. To test this hypothesis, we used the Zonation conservation prioritization algorithm to evaluate conservation network designs based on probability of occurrence versus density models for 26 land bird species in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. We assessed the efficacy of each conservation network based on predicted species densities and predicted species diversity. High‐density model Zonation rankings protected more individuals per species when networks protected the highest priority 10‐40% of the landscape. Compared with density‐based models, the occurrence‐based models protected more individuals in the lowest 50% priority areas of the landscape. The 2 approaches conserved species diversity in similar ways: predicted diversity was higher in higher priority locations in both conservation networks. We conclude that both density and probability of occurrence models can be useful for setting conservation priorities but that density‐based models are best suited for identifying the highest priority areas. Developing methods to aggregate species count data from unrelated monitoring efforts and making these data widely available through ecoinformatics portals such as the Avian Knowledge Network will enable species count data to be more widely incorporated into systematic conservation planning efforts.     

Divergence in sink contributions to population persistence

Population sinks present unique conservation challenges. The loss of individuals in sinks can compromise persistence; but conversely, sinks can improve viability by improving connectivity and facilitating the recolonization of vacant sources. To assess the contribution of sinks to regional population persistence of declining populations, we simulated source–sink dynamics for 3 very different endangered species: Black‐capped Vireos (Vireo atricapilla) at Fort Hood, Texas, Ord's kangaroo rats (Dipodomys ordii) in Alberta, and Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) in the northwestern United States. We used empirical data from these case studies to parameterize spatially explicit individual‐based models. We then used the models to quantify population abundance and persistence with and without long‐term sinks. The contributions of sink habitats varied widely. Sinks were detrimental, particularly when they functioned as strong sinks with few emigrants in declining populations (e.g., Alberta's Ord's kangaroo rat) and benign in robust populations (e.g., Black‐capped Vireos) when Brown‐headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) parasitism was controlled. Sinks, including ecological traps, were also crucial in delaying declines when there were few sources (e.g., in Black‐capped Vireo populations with no Cowbird control). Sink contributions were also nuanced. For example, sinks that supported large, variable populations were subject to greater extinction risk (e.g., Northern Spotted Owls). In each of our case studies, new context‐dependent sinks emerged, underscoring the dynamic nature of sources and sinks and the need for frequent re‐assessment. Our results imply that management actions based on assumptions that sink habitats are generally harmful or helpful risk undermining conservation efforts for declining populations.     

Effects of white‐nose syndrome on regional population patterns of 3 hibernating bat species

Hibernating bats have undergone severe recent declines across the eastern United States, but the cause of these regional‐scale declines has not been systematically evaluated. We assessed the influence of white‐nose syndrome (an emerging bat disease caused by the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans, formerly Geomyces destructans) on large‐scale, long‐term population patterns in the little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus), the northern myotis (Myotis septentrionalis), and the tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus). We modeled population trajectories for each species on the basis of an extensive data set of winter hibernacula counts of more than 1 million individual bats from a 4‐state region over 13 years and with data on locations of hibernacula and first detections of white‐nose syndrome at each hibernaculum. We used generalized additive mixed models to determine population change relative to expectations, that is, how population trajectories differed with a colony's infection status, how trajectories differed with distance from the point of introduction of white‐nose syndrome, and whether declines were concordant with first local observation of the disease. Population trajectories in all species met at least one of the 3 expectations, but none met all 3. Our results suggest, therefore, that white‐nose syndrome has affected regional populations differently than was previously understood and has not been the sole cause of declines. Specifically, our results suggest that in some areas and species, threats other than white‐nose syndrome are also contributing to population declines, declines linked to white‐nose syndrome have spread across large geographic areas with unexpected speed, and the disease or other threats led to declines in bat populations for years prior to disease detection. Effective conservation will require further research to mitigate impacts of white‐nose syndrome, renewed attention to other threats to bats, and improved surveillance efforts to ensure early detection of white‐nose syndrome.     

介绍一套岩浆过程模拟软件──TRAZAS

介绍了一套岩浆过程模拟软件──TRAZAS的运行环境、设计基础、设计流程及主要功能，并以云南老王寨金矿区煌斑岩成因研究为例，简单说明了软件的运用。     

城市综合交通规划环境评价中大气环境预测的数学模型

以城市综合交通规划环境影响评价中大气环境影响预测为例,分析了战略环境评价(SEA)中环境影响预测的特点,提出了SEA中应用空气质量模型的基本原则。在此基础上,对现有的空气质量模型(主要包括箱模式、高斯模式、拉格朗日模式和欧拉型数值模式)分别讨论了模型的时空尺度、所描述的环境要素和因子、模型的复杂性和输入数据、模拟区的下垫面特征在城市综合交通规划环境评价中的适用性。     

Simple screening models of NAPL dissolution in the subsurface

Three simple screening models of nonaqueous phase liquid (NAPL) dissolution in the subsurface are proposed based on the NAPL mass conservation and the assumption of proportionality between the residual NAPL source zone concentration and the remaining residual NAPL mass. The purpose of the proposed models is to predict the solute concentration in the zone of the residual NAPL as a result of dissolution. The predicted source zone concentration decrease is used to simulate and account for the decrease of dissolution rate with time. The proposed simple NAPL dissolution models enable the pseudo-equilibrium formulation to be used and therefore the numerical simulations for field application problems can be simplified compared to the non-equilibrium counterpart. With proper choice of empirical parameters, the proposed simple screening models can work as well as more complex dissolution rate correlation models, such as that of Imhoff et al. [Water Resour. Res. 30 (1994) 307-320]. It is found that the proposed models are very good for quantifying non-equilibrium dissolution, which is characterized by tailing of breakthrough curves. The models are especially useful for situations of small residual NAPL saturation, which are typical for many field applications.