柠檬酸固态发酵过程的研究

本文研究了以甘薯为原料，以黑曲霉为菌种，固态发酵制柠檬酸的最佳发酵条件和发酵动力学。探讨了接种方式、灭菌与否以及温度、含水量、ｐＨ值、颗粒度、通气速率等因素对柠檬酸固态发酵过程的影响，提出了适宜的发酵参数。在此基础上，进一步研究甘薯固态发酵制取柠檬酸的动力学模型，确定了模型参数与操作条件的关系。该模型反映了基质消耗、产物生成、菌体生长及ＣＯ２释放速率的变化过程和温度、颗粒度的影响。模型的模拟结果与     

Extending the Dewanji and Kalbfleisch model to incorporate marker data

The model of Dewanji and Kalbfleisch for the estimation of time to tumour onset from a serial-sacrifice experiment is extended to include a marker state prior to the onset of the tumour. There are two versions of the model, one where a tumour is allowed to develop without the onset of marker, the other where a tumour develops after the marker but in which the marker later becomes unobservable.     

A general model for tagging on multiple component fisheries: an integration of age-dependent reporting rates and mortality estimation

A major objective of analyzing multiple year tag return data in fisheries is to estimate fishing and natural mortality rates which may vary by age class and calendar year. To do this one needs to be able to estimate the reporting rates for the tags recovered. Some fisheries such as that for Southern Bluefin Tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) have multiple components with potentially different reporting rates for the tag returns. In this paper we develop a general model for multi-cohort, multi-year tag return analyses where there are multiple components to the fishery with potentially different reporting rates. We require the assumption that one component has a reporting rate of 100% (i.e., this could be the component of a boat based fishery where scientific observers are present). We show further how it is possible to partition the overall likelihood developed into two conditionally independent components. The first component of the likelihood is the standard multinomial likelihood that allows estimation of fishing and natural mortality rates. It uses the tag return matrix summed over all the components of the fishery. It requires an average reporting rate for the tag returns (where the average reporting rate is a weighted average of the individual reporting rates of the different components). The second component is also multinomial for the individual component tag returns and allows us to estimate individual component reporting rates. However, this requires that we augment our second component tag return likelihood with a catch data likelihood for the corresponding components. The methodology is illustrated on some Southern Bluefin Tuna tagging and catch data. We also discuss important model assumptions and give suggestions for future research including the integration of tag-return and catch at age data analyses.     

Direct calculation of likelihood-based benchmark dose levels for quantitative responses

A benchmark dose (BMD) for quantitative responses is a lower confidence limit (LCL) on the effective dose corresponding to a specified risk level r. A commonly adopted method for calculating the BMD is to obtain a pointwise upper confidence curve U(d) on the risk function and then invert this relationship by solving the equation U(d)=r. The solution d is taken to be the BMD. Sciullo et al. (2000) have shown that the coverage achieved by this inversion method is at least as great as the coverage achieved by U (·) but that there is otherwise no general relationship between the two coverage probabilities. The present paper develops a method for direct calculation of the BMD based on the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic. It is further shown that the direct method and the inversion method are equivalent when U (·) is also based on the likelihood ratio. Since the direct method is known to be asymptotically correct, it follows that the LR-based inversion method is also asymptotically correct. However, the direct method is computationally faster and easier to program. Finally, some simulation studies are conducted to assess the small sample coverage probabilities of the direct method when responses follow either a normal or a gamma distribution.     

Modelling heterogeneity in the recoveries of marked animal populations with covariates of individual animals, groups of animals or recovery time

A general framework is developed for modelling rates of survival and recovery of marked animal populations in terms of auxiliary information collected at the time of marking. The framework may be used to estimate differences in survival or recovery among individual animals, groups of animals, and recovery times. Analyses of the recoveries of tagged fish and banded bird populations are used to illustrate the specification and selection of various models.     

简化活性污泥数学模型的优化

为了从控制运行的角度促进简化数学模型的应用，必须借助其它优化手段进一步提高预测精度。本文主要介绍了应用于简化数学模型的扩展卡尔曼滤波、神经网络和误差反馈系统三种优化方法以及优化后的验证结果。从验证结果来看，优化的ROM模型与ASMl模型的定性变化行为相似，基于神经网络的复合模型对PO4^3-和NOx^-的预测结果非常准确，误差反馈的优化系统模拟性能良好。     

岳阳南湖水质变化趋势与保护措施研究

应用湖泊完全混合模型和狄龙模型，预测了岳阳经济技术开发区和南湖旅游度假区建成后对有水质的影响，结果表明南湖水质污染将会加剧。根据南湖污染源的情况，文中提出了相应的水质保护措施。     

Numerical integration of chemical ODE problems arising in air pollution models

The numerical treatment of a regional air pollution model (such models are, as a rule, described mathematically by systems of partial differential equations) leads to the solution of very large computational problems. The chemical submodel of an air pollution model is normally the most timeconsuming part of the computational work. The application of appropriate discretization and splitting procedures reduces the chemical submodel to a large number of relatively small ODE systems (one such system per gridpoint). In the process of searching for efficient numerical algorithms for the chemical submodels one can carry out experiments by using only one such ODE system in order to facilitate the work. This approach has been used in connection with a particular chemical scheme, the condensed CBM IV scheme, which is used in several large air pollution models. Six integration algorithms have been tested on a set of typical scenarios (consisting of different starting concentrations and/or of different values of the emissions). The advantages and the disadvantages of the algorithms tested are discussed. The final decision about the most efficient algorithm, among the algorithms tested, should be made after a second series of experiments. The coupling of the chemical process with the transport of air pollution (on, at least, a twodimensional domain) together with the application of highspeed computers has to be studied in the second series of experiments, which will be performed in a subsequent paper.     

Counterpart Models in Facility Location Science and Reserve Selection Science

Five classes of zero–one programming models for discrete facility location problems are compared to counterpart models for the selection of conservation reserves. The basic problem of siting facilities to cover demand for services is analogous to the problem of selecting reserves to support species diversity. The classes of models include the set covering and maximal covering models, as well as models for backup and redundant coverage. Issues of reliability and uncertainty are addressed by chance constrained covering models and maximal expected covering models. Exact and heuristic solution approaches are discussed. Multi-objective and economic issues are considered.