Development of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Total Maximum Daily Load Allocation

Nutrient load allocations and subsequent reductions in total nitrogen and phosphorus have been applied in the Chesapeake watershed since 1992 to reduce hypoxia and to restore living resources. In 2010, sediment allocations were established to augment nutrient allocations supporting the submerged aquatic vegetation resource. From the initial introduction of nutrient allocations in 1992 to the present, the allocations have become more completely applied to all areas and loads in the watershed and have also become more rigorously assessed and tracked. The latest 2010 application of nutrient and sediment allocations were made as part of the Chesapeake Bay total maximum daily load and covered all six states of the Chesapeake watershed. A quantitative allocation process was developed that applied principles of equity and efficiency in the watershed, while achieving all tidal water quality standards through an assessment of equitable levels of effort in reducing nutrients and sediments. The level of effort was determined through application of two key watershed scenarios: one where no action was taken in nutrient control and one where maximum nutrient control efforts were applied. Once the level of effort was determined for different jurisdictions, the overall load reduction was set watershed‐wide to achieve dissolved oxygen water quality standards. Further adjustments were made to the allocation to achieve the James River chlorophyll‐a standard.     

A Semianalytical Solution for Residual Drawdown at a Finite Diameter Well in a Confined Aquifer

After the end of pumping the water level in the observation well starts to recover and the reduced drawdown during the recovery period is named as the residual drawdown. Traditional approaches in analyzing the data of residual drawdown for estimating the aquifer hydraulic parameters are mostly based on the application of superposition principle and Theis equation. In addition, the effect of wellbore storage is commonly ignored in the evaluation even if the test well has a finite diameter. In this article, we develop a mathematical model for describing the residual drawdown with considering the wellbore storage effect and the existing drawdown distribution produced by the pumping part of the test. The Laplace‐domain solution of the model is derived using the Laplace transform technique and the time‐domain result is inverted based on the Stehfest algorithm. This new solution shows that the residual drawdown associated with the boundary and initial conditions are related to the well drawdown and the aquifer drawdown, respectively. The well residual drawdown will be overestimated by the Theis residual drawdown solution in the early recovery part if neglecting the wellbore storage. On the other hand, the Theis residual drawdown solution can be used to approximate the present residual drawdown solution in the late recovery part of the test.     

Estimating biodegradation half-lives for use in chemical screening

Biodegradation half-lives are needed for many applications in chemical screening, but these data are not available for most chemicals. To address this, in phase one of this work we correlated the much more abundant ready and inherent biodegradation test data with measured half-lives for water and soil. In phase two, we explored the utility of the BIOWIN™ models (in EPI Suite™) and molecular fragments for predicting half-lives. BIOWIN™ model output was correlated directly with measured half-lives, and new models were developed by re-regressing the BIOWIN™ fragments against the half-lives. All of these approaches gave the best results when used for binary (fast/slow) classification of half-lives, with accuracy generally in the 70–80% range. In the last phase, we used the collected half-life data to examine the default half-lives assigned by EPI Suite™ and the PBT Profiler™ for use as input to their level III multimedia models. It is concluded that estimated half-lives should not be used for purposes other than binning or prioritizing chemicals unless accuracy improves significantly.     

Modelling radionuclide transport for time varying flow in a channel network

Water flowrates and flow directions may change over time in the subsurface for a number of reasons. In fractured rocks flow takes place in channels within fractures. Solutes are carried by the advective flow. In addition, solutes may diffuse in and out of stagnant waters in the rock matrix and other stagnant water regions. Sorbing species may sorb on fracture surfaces and on the micropore surfaces in the rock matrix. We present a method by which solute particles can be traced in flowing water undergoing changes in flowrate and direction in a complex channel network where the solutes can also interact with the rock by diffusion in the rock matrix. The novelty of this paper is handling of diffusion in the rock matrix under transient flow conditions. The diffusive processes are stochastic and it is not possible to follow a particle deterministically. The method therefore utilises the properties of a probability distribution function for a tracer moving in a fracture where matrix diffusion is active. The method is incorporated in a three dimensional channel network model. Particle tracking is used to trace out a multitude of flowpaths, each of which consists of a large number of channels within fractures. Along each channel the aperture and velocity as well as the matrix sorption properties can vary. An efficient method is presented whereby a particle can be followed along the variable property flowpath. For stationary flow conditions and a network of channels with advective flow and matrix diffusion, a simple analytical solution for the residence time distribution along each pathway can be used. Only two parameter groups need to be integrated along each path. For transient flow conditions, a time stepping procedure that incorporates a stochastic Monte-Carlo like method to follow the particles along the paths when flow conditions change is used. The method is fast and an example is used for illustrative purposes. It is exemplified by a case where land rises due to glacial rebound. It is shown that the effects of changing flowrates and directions can be considerable and that the diffusive migration in the matrix can have a dominating effect on the results.     

State-of-the-art of ecological modelling with emphasis on development of structural dynamic models

The paper deals with two major problems in ecological modelling today, namely how to get reliable parameters? and how to build ecosystem properties into our models? The use of new mathematical tools to answer these questions is mentioned briefly, but the main focus of the paper is on development of structural dynamic models which are models using goal functions to reflect a current change of the properties of the biological components in the models. These changes of the properties are due to the enormous adaptability of the biological components to the prevailing conditions. All species in an ecosystem attempt to obtain most biomass, i.e. to move as far away as possible from thermodynamic equilibrium which can be measured by the thermodynamic concept exergy. Consequently, exergy has been proposed as a goal function in ecological models with dynamic structure, meaning currently changed properties of the biological components and in model language currently changed parameters. An equation to compute an exergy index of a model is presented. The theoretical considerations leading to this equation are not presented here but references to literature where the basis theory can be found are given. Two case studies of structural dynamic modelling are presented: a shallow lake where the structural dynamic changes have been determined before the model was developed, and the application of biomanipulation in lake management, where the structural dynamic changes are generally known. Moreover. it is also discussed how the same idea of using exergy as a goal function in ecological modelling may be applied to facilitate the estimation of parameters.     

Mid‐Range Streamflow Forecasts Based on Climate Modeling – Statistical Correction and Evaluation1

Abstract: Mid‐range streamflow predictions are extremely important for managing water resources. The ability to provide mid‐range (three to six months) streamflow forecasts enables considerable improvements in water resources system operations. The skill and economic value of such forecasts are of great interest. In this research, output from a general circulation model (GCM) is used to generate hydrologic input for mid‐range streamflow forecasts. Statistical procedures including: (1) transformation, (2) correction, (3) observation of ensemble average, (4) improvement of forecast, and (5) forecast skill test are conducted to minimize the error associated with different spatial resolution between the large‐scale GCM and the finer‐scale hydrologic model and to improve forecast skills. The accuracy of a streamflow forecast generated using a hydrologic model forced with GCM output for the basin was evaluated by forecast skill scores associated with the set of streamflow forecast values in a categorical forecast. Despite the generally low forecast skill score exhibited by the climate forecasting approach, precipitation forecast skill clearly improves when a conditional forecast is performed during the East Asia summer monsoon, June through August.     

Influence of hydrodynamic conditions on the production and fate of Posidonia oceanica in a semi-enclosed shallow basin (Stagnone di Marsala, Western Sicily)

An integrated approach using hydrodynamic and transport numerical models, lepidochronology and stable isotope analysis was used to investigate how local hydrodynamic conditions influence the primary production and fate of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica in a Mediterranean semi-enclosed marine system (Stagnone di Marsala). The water mass exchange aptitude of different sectors of the basin was analysed, and data collected were used to select two sectors (colonized by Posidonia oceanica showing the lowest and highest water exchange values) for biological analyses. According to the mean dispersal coefficient differences simulated by the hydrodynamic model, growth rate and primary production of P. oceanica differed between sectors, with average values lower in the central sector where water exchange is lower than in the southern sector. Although P. oceanica coverage and primary production were higher in the southern sector, carbon and nitrogen stable isotope analysis suggests that the transfer of seagrass organic matter to higher trophic levels of the food web was higher in the central sector. The possibility of a link between hydrodynamism, production and fate of organic matter is proposed to explain the observed patterns.     

Using Scalar Models for Precautionary Assessments of Threatened Species

Abstract:  Scalar population models, commonly referred to as count-based models, are based on time-series data of population sizes and may be useful for screening-level ecological risk assessments when data for more complex models are not available. Appropriate use of such models for management purposes, however, requires understanding inherent biases that may exist in these models. Through a series of simulations, which compared predictions of risk of decline of scalar and matrix-based models, we examined whether discrepancies may arise from different dynamics displayed due to age structure and generation time. We also examined scalar and matrix-based population models of 18 real populations for potential patterns of bias in population viability estimates. In the simulation study, precautionary bias (i.e., overestimating risks of decline) of scalar models increased as a function of generation time. Models of real populations showed poor fit between scalar and matrix-based models, with scalar models predicting significantly higher risks of decline on average. The strength of this bias was not correlated with generation time, suggesting that additional sources of bias may be masking this relationship. Scalar models can be useful for screening-level assessments, which should in general be precautionary, but the potential shortfalls of these models should be considered before using them as a basis for management decisions.     

高层建筑火灾安全疏散研究述评

火灾条件下的高层建筑安全疏散研究已成为国内外研究的热点。介绍了高层建筑安全疏散设计及高层建筑人员疏散模拟两种主要研究方法在高层建筑安全疏散研究上的应用。首先说明了高层建筑安全疏散设计经历了一个从处方式安全疏散设计到性能化安全疏散设计的转变,分析了国内外在高层建筑性能化安全疏散设计上的发展,并列出了性能化安全疏散设计在实施中存在的问题;其次介绍了应用于高层建筑人员疏散的仿真模型,设想了高层建筑计算机模型的发展趋势;最后结合高层建筑火灾安全疏散目前存在的问题和不足,对高层建筑火灾安全疏散做出展望。     

Influence of grain size on species-habitat models

High resolution remote sensing data facilitate the use of small-scale habitat features such as trees or hedges in the analysis of species-habitat relationships. Such data potentially enable more accurate species-habitat mapping than lower resolution data. Here, for the first time, we systematically investigated this hypothesis by altering the spatial resolution from 1 m up to 1000 m grain size in species-habitat models of 13 bird species. The study area covered the Nidda river catchment in central Germany, a large heterogeneous landscape of 1620 km². A high resolution habitat map of the area was converted to coarser spatial and thematic resolutions in seven steps. We investigated how model performance responded to grain size, and we compared the differential effects of spatial resolution and thematic resolution on model performance. Explained deviance (D²) of the bird models generally decreased with coarser spatial resolution of the data, although it did not decrease monotonically in all species. On average across all species, model D² decreased from 41.5 at 1 m grain size to 15.9 at 1000 m grain size. Ten species were best modelled at 1 m, two species at 3 m and one species at 32 m grain size. Model performance degraded continuously with increasing grain size, both in habitat generalist and habitat specialist bird species, and was systematically lower in habitat generalists. The higher model performance observed at finer grain sizes was most likely caused by the combination of three factors: (1) high spatial accuracy of bird records and (2) a more precise location and delineation of habitat features and, (3) to a lesser degree, by more habitat types differentiated in maps of finer resolution. We conclude that higher spatial and thematic resolution data can be essential for deriving accurate predictions on bird distribution patterns from species-habitat models. Especially for bird species that are sensitive to specific land-use types or to small-scaled habitat features, a grain size of 1-3 m seems most promising.