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501.
502.
Modelling species distributions with penalised logistic regressions: A comparison with maximum entropy models 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
An important aspect of species distribution modelling is the choice of the modelling method because a suboptimal method may have poor predictive performance. Previous comparisons have found that novel methods, such as Maxent models, outperform well-established modelling methods, such as the standard logistic regression. These comparisons used training samples with small numbers of occurrences per estimated model parameter, and this limited sample size may have caused poorer predictive performance due to overfitting. Our hypothesis is that Maxent models would outperform a standard logistic regression because Maxent models avoid overfitting by using regularisation techniques and a standard logistic regression does not. Regularisation can be applied to logistic regression models using penalised maximum likelihood estimation. This estimation procedure shrinks the regression coefficients towards zero, causing biased predictions if applied to the training sample but improving the accuracy of new predictions. We used Maxent and logistic regression (standard and penalised) to analyse presence/pseudo-absence data for 13 tree species and evaluated the predictive performance (discrimination) using presence-absence data. The penalised logistic regression outperformed standard logistic regression and equalled the performance of Maxent. The penalised logistic regression may be considered one of the best methods to develop species distribution models trained with presence/pseudo-absence data, as it is comparable to Maxent. Our results encourage further use of the penalised logistic regression for species distribution modelling, especially in those cases in which a complex model must be fitted to a sample with a limited size. 相似文献
503.
504.
Alex Potapov Jim R. Muirhead Subhash R. Lele Mark A. Lewis 《Ecological modelling》2011,222(4):964-972
Freshwater aquatic systems in North America are being invaded by many different species, ranging from fish, mollusks, cladocerans to various bacteria and viruses. These invasions have serious ecological and economic impacts. Human activities such as recreational boating are an important pathway for dispersal. Gravity models are used to quantify the dispersal effect of human activity. Gravity models currently used in ecology are deterministic. This paper proposes the use of stochastic gravity models in ecology, which provides new capabilities both in model building and in potential model applications. These models allow us to use standard statistical inference tools such as maximum likelihood estimation and model selection based on information criteria. To facilitate prediction, we use only those covariates that are easily available from common data sources and can be forecasted in future. This is important for forecasting the spread of invasive species in geographical and temporal domain. The proposed model is portable, that is it can be used for estimating relative boater traffic and hence relative propagule pressure for the lakes not covered by current boater surveys. This makes our results broadly applicable to various invasion prediction and management models. 相似文献
505.
Sarah K. Jacobi Charles S. ReVelle Robert L. Pressey Justin C. Williams 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2007,12(2):91-103
We examine the irreplaceability of sites in the context of the species set covering problem and the maximal covering species
problem. We show that a succession of 0-1 programming problems can be solved to quickly determine the set of irreplaceable
sites. For the widely available Oregon data set, we find a general lack of trend in the number of irreplaceable sites with
the number of sites available for selection used. Moreover, we observe that irreplaceability at one level of resource may
not be a predictor of irreplaceability at a higher or a lower level of resource. Finally, we investigate the economic value
of irreplaceable sites by trial removals of those sites.
This paper is dedicated to the memory of Dr. Charles S. ReVelle. 相似文献
506.
基于区域化过程的边缘地区发展模式——以南阳市为例 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
边缘地区的发展问题一直是区域研究中的重点和难点,研究其发展轨迹、机理对于促进经济相对滞后的边缘区域发展具有重要意义。以豫鄂两省交界地区的南阳地区为例,在实地调研基础上,对其处于“核心→边缘”中的区域化过程进行阐述,采用区位商和“三轴图”产业重心方〖JP2〗法对其边缘化过程进行分析,针对南阳地区实际发展状况,提出未来解决边缘化的主要发展模式:(1)“CI”区域形象设计,推行区域形象发展模式;(2)“特色农产品+农户+中介+(市场)明星企业”的农业产业化模式、“特色资源+生态工业园”的工业发展模式;(3)以旅游和物流为主的交通驱动型第三产业发展模式,通过特色模式带动地区经济快速高效发展,以期为南阳地区及同类区域发展提供有益建议。 相似文献
507.
Arianna Boschetti Fabio Montagnaro Carmine Rienzo Luciano Santoro 《Journal of Cleaner Production》2007,15(18):1797-1805
Different organic ionic liquids (OILs) have been used as green solvents in Friedel–Crafts acylation and alcohol oxidation reactions. Specifically, three OILs were employed, 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride, tetraethylammonium bromide, and 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride, and four reactions studied, acylation of toluene by acetyl chloride, acylation of benzene by propionyl chloride, oxidation of benzyl alcohol by N-methylmorpholine N-oxide, and oxidation of salicylic alcohol by o-iodoxybenzoic acid. The reactions were carried out, at room temperature, in a well-stirred lab-scale glass batch reactor, under inert atmosphere and for reaction times ranging from 5 to 90 min. Gas chromatography was employed to characterize the reaction products. First of all, the desired products yield as a function of the reaction time was investigated. Moreover, simple kinetic models were built for the interpretation of the experimental results. Additional tests were carried out to assess the possibility of recycling the OILs employed. The results of this preliminary study were satisfactory as the OILs investigated proved to be good media in which to carry out the reactions studied in this work (desired products yield greater than 90% were achieved). Moreover, the reaction rate expressions of the kinetic models were able to satisfactorily predict the experimental results. Finally, the possibility of recycling the OIL (in one of the reactions) was proved to be feasible and this suggests the use of recycled OIL together with a fresh make-up, to match high yield values with economical/ecological advantages. 相似文献
508.
Identifying key issues in environmental wetland research using scaling and uncertainty analysis 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Peter van Bodegom Chris Bakker Hugo Denier van der Gon 《Regional Environmental Change》2004,4(2-3):100-106
Quantification of the response of wetlands to environmental change and of climate change to wetland processes, is a pressing, but complex, issue. Findings of widely diverse investigations have to be generalised to identify the key issues and the gaps in knowledge. Two tools for generalisation, scaling and uncertainty analysis, were applied here to two case studies and act as stepping stones for analysis of key issues. The first case study is on methane emissions from wetland rice fields and the second is on the restoration of wet dune slacks. The type of problems encountered depends on the scale at which a process is studied. At the biogeochemical processes scale, knowledge on some key parameters, but especially on interactions between key parameters is limiting. At the vegetation scale, feedbacks between processes become especially important, whereas at even larger scales increasingly stringent approximations of interactions have to be made. Accumulating uncertainties at the landscape scale need careful evaluation. Apart from uncertainties in the approximations and their interactions, those introduced by spatial and temporal variability as well as by different data sources highly influence the accuracy of response estimates, while these last sources of uncertainty are neglected in many studies. Only by explicitly accounting for scaling effects and their resulting uncertainties, the interactions between wetlands and environment can be understood. 相似文献
509.
钮德明 《中国人口.资源与环境》1992,(3)
本文认为社会发展的软件建设,首先要研究制定社会发展的战略与规划,并把握战略的全局谋划和規划的总体安排;其次是以人为主体,将提高人的素质作为社会发展的基础,来促进社会发展的良性循环;再者以深化改革促进社会发展过程中人与自然的协调共存,逐步形成社会发展的良性运行机制;最后是探索管理模式,保证社会持续发展。 相似文献
510.
降雨型泥石流(水石流)预报模型研究 总被引:18,自引:1,他引:18
根据泥石流暴发具有某种周期性的特点,在获取了大量野外调查资料和历史资料的基础上,对降雨型泥石流进行了预报模型研究,并以北京市北部山区密云县为例作了泥石流预报尝试。以层次分析法和多元回归方法所得出的泥石流空间预报和时间预报模型对于泥石流的预报具有重要意义。 相似文献